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US Air Force C-17s and other aircraft assist with the withdrawal from Afghanistan. US Air Force
US Air Force C-17s and other aircraft assist with the withdrawal from Afghanistan. US Air Force

2021 - The fall of Kabul

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Updated 19 April 2025

2021 - The fall of Kabul

2021 - The fall of Kabul
  • After 2 decades, trillions of dollars and countless lives lost, Afghanistan is back where it began. Was it all in vain?

KABUL: During the hot summer of 2021, a deep sense of eeriness, and at the same time optimism, hung over Afghanistan as one city and province after another fell to the Taliban ahead of the imminent full withdrawal of US-led troops.

Those weeks were a microcosm reflecting much of the experience of the 20 years following the US invasion of a country that had already suffered a bloody, decade-long occupation by the Soviet Union in the 1980s, and between 1838 and 1939 endured a series of conflicts with the British Empire.

On Feb. 29, 2020, the Taliban signed the Doha Accord, a peace agreement with a US administration determined to end to America鈥檚 longest war, which began in 2001 in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks by Al-Qaeda.

As part of the deal 鈥 officially known as the 鈥淎greement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States of America鈥 鈥 Washington agreed to dramatically reduce the number of US forces in the country ahead of a complete withdrawal within 14 months.

It immediately became apparent, however, that without US air and ground support, Afghan government forces could not cope with the sudden surge in Taliban attacks that followed the signing of the agreement.

How we wrote it




Arab News reported the Taliban鈥檚 takeover of Kabul 鈥20 years after the US-led invasion that ousted them.鈥

Even the Taliban were stunned by the speed of their victories in 2001, which by Aug. 15 had brought them to the gates of Kabul.

The fall of the city had been predicted a year earlier by Mariam Koofi, a member of the Afghan parliament, while the talks between Taliban delegates and US diplomats were still in full swing in Doha.

鈥淚 fear that we would see the Taliban on the streets of Kabul one day when you get up from your bed,鈥 Koofi told me.

Her assessment was based on a number of factors, including corruption within the government, rising numbers of deaths among Afghan troops, power struggles between state and non-state actors, the growing push for a US withdrawal by regional rivals such as Iran, Russia and China, and the decline in vital American military and logistical aid to the government of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.

On Aug. 15, 2021, Koofi鈥檚 prediction came to pass. As news spread that Ghani and members of his government had fled by helicopter to Central Asia, and US and other Western diplomats had abandoned their embassies in panic, Taliban fighters entered Kabul and captured the presidential palace.

In some parts of the city, large crowds gathered on the streets, some in fear, some to welcome their new rulers. Others were merely curious to see them for the first time, because they were born during the US occupation and so had not experienced the first rule of the Taliban, which was cut short by the American-led invasion in 2001.

Key Dates

  • 1

    In an agreement that excludes the Afghan government, the Taliban and the US sign the Doha Accord, under which Washington commits to a full withdrawal of troops within 14 months.

    Timeline Image Feb. 29, 2020

  • 2

    Newly elected President Joe Biden announces all US troops will leave Afghanistan by Sept. 11, the 20th anniversary of the start of 鈥渢he forever war.鈥

    Timeline Image April 14, 2021

  • 3

    Taliban launch major offensive.

    Timeline Image May 1, 2021

  • 4

    Taliban seize Kabul; government of President Ashraf Ghani collapses.

    Timeline Image Aug. 15, 2021

  • 5

    Suicide bombing at Kabul鈥檚 Hamid Karzai International Airport kills 170 Afghan citizens and 13 US military personnel.

    Timeline Image Aug. 25, 2021

  • 6

    Last-remaining US soldiers leave Afghanistan. Taliban declare victory.

According to Brown University鈥檚 Costs of War project, 20 years of war in Afghanistan claimed the lives of more than 168,000 Afghans, including 69,000 members of the national police and military, and 46,000 civilians.

Despite the loss of more than 6,000 American lives and after spending trillions of dollars on the conflict, the US had handed power back to the very group it drove out 20 years earlier.

In the center of Kabul, banks and businesses closed, fearing looting, but the Taliban swiftly managed to stop any threat of plundering. The group also quickly announced the reestablishment of its Islamic Emirate, rather than the formation of a broad-based government as agreed in the Doha deal.

At Kabul airport, diplomats, some of their local employees and foreign aid workers were flown out of the country on US and other foreign military aircraft.

Fearful for the future of Afghanistan under Taliban rule and the return of civil war, tens of thousands of residents mobbed the airport amid false rumors that aircraft were waiting to transport Afghans who wanted to leave the country.




Commanding General US Central Command Kenneth F. McKenzie touring an evacuation control center at Hamid Karzai International Airport, Afghanistan, on August 17,2021. AFP

As evening approached, a human tide broke through barriers and flooded onto the runway. In chaotic scenes, broadcast around the world, some desperate people tried to cling to aircraft as they took off. On Aug. 16, a young dentist fell to his death from a plane, his remains found on a rooftop four miles from the airport. A teenage soccer player similarly died after plummeting from a US aircraft.

In the days that followed, the Taliban, who had promised to be more lenient and inclusive than they had been during their previous rule, began imposing curbs and draconian policies. Billboards depicting women were defaced or torn down, Afghan flags were lowered, cafes stopped playing music, and a few restaurants run by women were closed. Demonstrations by women protesting against the Taliban鈥檚 actions were suppressed.

On Aug. 26, a suicide bomber, later identified as a member of Daesh, killed 170 Afghans and 13 US troops at the airport. Five days later, on Aug. 31, the US completed its full withdrawal from Afghanistan.




US Marine and a child spray water at each other during the evacuation at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, August 21. US Marine Corps

Since then, the Taliban have continued to impose tough restrictions, particularly on women, who are barred from education above grade 6, attending university, and most public jobs. Hundreds of thousands of Afghans have fled the country, seeing no future there.

Meanwhile, the Taliban government faces ever-deepening international isolation, signs of internal divisions, and growing local frustration with its fundamentalist policies.

In addition, Afghanistan might not yet be free of foreign intervention. Although the policy of the new US administration toward the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is not yet entirely clear, on Feb. 1, President Donald Trump repeated a preelection threat that America would reclaim Bagram Airbase.

  • Sayed Salahuddin is an Afghan journalist based in Canada who covered the rise of the Taliban in 1996, the US invasion and the fall of Kabul in 2021.


鈥楳agical鈥 Duplantis soars to pole vault world record in Stockholm

鈥楳agical鈥 Duplantis soars to pole vault world record in Stockholm
Updated 3 min 3 sec ago

鈥楳agical鈥 Duplantis soars to pole vault world record in Stockholm

鈥楳agical鈥 Duplantis soars to pole vault world record in Stockholm
  • Duplantis: It鈥檚 a magical feeling, it鈥檚 hard to explain. It鈥檒l be one of the greatest memories for me, I think, in my career
  • Olympic champion Rai Benjamin edged out Alison dos Santos to win the men鈥檚 400m hurdles, with Karsten Warlhom a distant third
  • Julien Alfred won the women鈥檚 100m in 10.75sec, the second fastest time of the year

STOCKHOLM: Swedish double Olympic pole vault champion Armand 鈥楳ondo鈥 Duplantis increased his own world record again on Sunday, clearing 6.28 meters to the delight of the home crowd at the Stockholm Diamond League meet.

With victory in the event already guaranteed, Duplantis broke the world record for the 12th time as he sailed over the bar at the first attempt to improve on his 6.27m effort at Clermont-Ferrand in February.

The 25-year-old ripped off his shirt in celebration and raced down the track in front of jubilant spectators at the Olympic stadium built for the 1912 Games.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a magical feeling, it鈥檚 hard to explain,鈥 said Duplantis, who had not before broken the record in Sweden.

鈥淚 wanted this so bad. I wanted to do this in front of everybody here in Stockholm.

鈥淚t felt like really something special in the crowd today and I knew that everybody really wanted to see it too.

鈥淚t鈥檒l be one of the greatest memories for me, I think, in my career.鈥

Duplantis notched up his 37th victory in 41 Diamond League outings, finishing well ahead of Australia鈥檚 Kurtis Marschall who managed a best of 5.90m.

The US-born Duplantis was in a class of his own in another punishing display of vaulting of the highest order, three days after a stellar display in Oslo.

鈥淚 kept saying it was the only thing I was missing in the accolades, to break a record in Sweden,鈥 he said.

鈥淚鈥檝e checked off pretty much everything now.鈥

Duplantis is the heavy favorite for a third successive world championship gold in Tokyo later this year. He is also a three-time indoor world champion.

He first broke the world record in 2020 when he surpassed the 6.16m mark set by Frenchman Renaud Lavillenie.

Duplantis intends to push the bar even higher after his Stockholm exploits.

鈥淚鈥檓 going to jump higher. There鈥檚 not much between me and 6.30, technically. It鈥檚 just a few centimeters. I鈥檓 just a perfect day away from it,鈥 he said.

Hometown runner Andreas Almgren fed off the raucous atmosphere to set a new European record of 12min 44.27sec to win the men鈥檚 5,000m.

Olympic champion Rai Benjamin edged out Alison dos Santos to win the men鈥檚 400m hurdles, with Karsten Warlhom a distant third.

Warholm triumphed in the rarely-run 300km hurdles on his home track in Oslo on Thursday, but Benjamin produced a world-leading time of 46.54sec over 400m.

鈥淚 think on Thursday I got a little too excited but I felt good today even though I was tired,鈥 said Benjamin.

Julien Alfred won the women鈥檚 100m in 10.75sec, the second fastest time of the year. It was only the Olympic gold medalist鈥檚 second race of the season following her victory in Oslo.

Britain鈥檚 Dina Asher-Smith took second (10.93) ahead of Ivorian Marie-Josee Ta Lou-Smith (11.00).

Two-time Olympic bronze medallist Femke Bol won the women鈥檚 400m hurdles in a season鈥檚 best time of 52.11sec. She finished ahead of American Dalilah Muhammad (52.91) and Panama鈥檚 Gianna Woodruff (53.99).

鈥淚 am not in my best shape yet so to take the victory is especially good,鈥 said Bol.

鈥淎 race is never the same as training and it is only my third race of the season... but I am starting to feel the hurdles better every race and getting into race shape.

鈥淚t is such a high level at the moment in the hurdles so I am very excited going forward toward the world championships.鈥


Friends say Minnesota shooting suspect was deeply religious and conservative

Friends say Minnesota shooting suspect was deeply religious and conservative
Updated 41 min 56 sec ago

Friends say Minnesota shooting suspect was deeply religious and conservative

Friends say Minnesota shooting suspect was deeply religious and conservative
  • Friends told the AP that they knew Boelter was religious and conservative, but that he didn鈥檛 talk about politics often and didn鈥檛 seem extreme

NEW YORK: The man accused of assassinating the top Democrat in the Minnesota House held deeply religious and politically conservative views, telling a congregation in Africa two years ago that the US was in a 鈥渂ad place鈥 where most churches didn鈥檛 oppose abortion.
Vance Luther Boelter, 57, was at the center of a massive multistate manhunt on Sunday, a day after authorities say he impersonated a police officer and gunned down former House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, in their home outside Minneapolis. Democratic Gov. Tim Walz described the shooting as 鈥渁 politically motivated assassination.鈥
Sen. John Hoffman, also a Democrat, and his wife, Yvette, were shot earlier by the same gunman at their home nearby but survived.
Friends and former colleagues interviewed by The Associated Press described Boelter as a devout Christian who attended an evangelical church and went to campaign rallies for President Donald Trump. Records show Boelter registered to vote as a Republican while living in Oklahoma in 2004 before moving to Minnesota where voters don鈥檛 list party affiliation.
Near the scene at Hortman鈥檚 home, authorities say they found an SUV made to look like those used by law enforcement. Inside they found fliers for a local anti-Trump 鈥淣o Kings鈥 rally scheduled for Saturday and a notebook with names of other lawmakers. The list also included the names of abortion rights advocates and health care officials, according to two law enforcement officials who could not discuss details of the ongoing investigation and spoke to AP on condition of anonymity.
Both Hortman and Hoffman were defenders of abortion rights at the state legislature.
Suspect not believed to have made any public threats before attacks, official says
Drew Evans, superintendent of the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, said at a briefing on Sunday that Boelter is not believed to have made any public threats before the attacks. Evans asked the public not to speculate on a motivation for the attacks. 鈥淲e often want easy answers for complex problems,鈥 he told reporters. 鈥淭hose answers will come as we complete the full picture of our investigation.鈥
Friends told the AP that they knew Boelter was religious and conservative, but that he didn鈥檛 talk about politics often and didn鈥檛 seem extreme.
鈥淗e was right-leaning politically but never fanatical, from what I saw, just strong beliefs,鈥 said Paul Schroeder, who has known Boelter for years.
A glimpse of suspect鈥檚 beliefs on abortion during a trip to Africa
Boelter, who worked as a security contractor, gave a glimpse of his beliefs on abortion during a trip to the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2023. While there, Boelter served as an evangelical pastor, telling people he had first found Jesus as a teenager.
鈥淭he churches are so messed up, they don鈥檛 know abortion is wrong in many churches,鈥 he said, according to an online recording of one sermon from February 2023. Still, in three lengthy sermons reviewed by the AP, he only mentioned abortion once, focusing more on his love of God and what he saw as the moral decay in his native country.
He appears to have hidden his more strident beliefs from his friends back home.
鈥淗e never talked to me about abortion,鈥 Schroeder said. 鈥淚t seemed to be just that he was a conservative Republican who naturally followed Trump.鈥
A married father with five children, Boelter and his wife own a sprawling 3,800-square-foot house on a large rural lot about an hour from downtown Minneapolis that the couple bought in 2023 for more than a half-million dollars.
Seeking to reinvent himself
He worked for decades in managerial roles for food and beverage manufacturers before seeking to reinvent himself in middle age, according to resumes and a video he posted online.
After getting an undergraduate degree in international relations in his 20s, Boelter went back to school and earned a master鈥檚 degree and then a doctorate in leadership studies in 2016 from Cardinal Stritch University, a private Catholic college in Wisconsin that has since shut down. While living in Wisconsin, records show Boelter and his wife Jenny founded a nonprofit corporation called Revoformation Ministries, listing themselves as the president and secretary.
After moving to Minnesota about a decade ago, Boelter volunteered for a position on a state workforce development board, first appointed by then-Gov. Mark Dayton, a Democrat, in 2016, and later by Democratic Gov. Tim Walz. He served through 2023.
In that position, he may have crossed paths with one of his alleged victims. Hoffman served on the same board, though authorities said it was not immediately clear how much the two men may have interacted.
Launching a security firm
Records show Boelter and his wife started a security firm in 2018. A website for Praetorian Guard Security Services lists Boelter鈥檚 wife as the president and CEO while he is listed as the director of security patrols. The company鈥檚 homepage says it provides armed security for property and events and features a photo of an SUV painted in a two-tone black and silver pattern similar to a police vehicle, with a light bar across the roof and 鈥淧raetorian鈥 painted across the doors. Another photo shows a man in black tactical gear with a military-style helmet and a ballistic vest with the company鈥檚 name across the front.
In an online resume, Boelter also billed himself as a security contractor who worked oversees in the Middle East and Africa. On his trip to the Democratic Republic of Congo, he told Chris Fuller, a friend, that he had founded several companies focused on farming and fishing on the Congo River, as well as in transportation and tractor sales.
鈥淚t has been a very fun and rewarding experience and I only wished I had done something like this 10 years ago,鈥 he wrote in a message shared with the AP.
But once he returned home in 2023, there were signs that Boelter was struggling financially. That August, he began working for a transport service for a funeral home, mostly picking up bodies of those who had died in assisted living facilities 鈥 a job he described as he needed to do to pay bills. Tim Koch, the owner of Metro First Call, said Boelter 鈥渧oluntarily left鈥 that position about four months ago.
鈥淭his is devastating news for all involved,鈥 Koch said, declining to elaborate on the reasons for Boelter鈥檚 departure, citing the ongoing law enforcement investigation.
Boelter had also started spending some nights away from his family, renting a room in a modest house in northern Minneapolis shared by friends. Heavily armed police executed a search warrant on the home Saturday.
鈥業鈥檓 going to be gone for awhile鈥
In the hours before Saturday鈥檚 shootings, Boelter texted two roommates to tell them he loved them and that 鈥淚鈥檓 going to be gone for a while,鈥 according to Schroeder, who was forwarded the text and read it to the AP.
鈥淢ay be dead shortly, so I just want to let you know I love you guys both and I wish it hadn鈥檛 gone this way,鈥 Boelter wrote. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 want to say anything more and implicate you in any way because you guys don鈥檛 know anything about this. But I love you guys and I鈥檓 sorry for the trouble this has caused.鈥


Palmeiras and Porto draw 0-0 in their first Club World Cup match

Palmeiras and Porto draw 0-0 in their first Club World Cup match
Updated 16 June 2025

Palmeiras and Porto draw 0-0 in their first Club World Cup match

Palmeiras and Porto draw 0-0 in their first Club World Cup match

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J.: Palmeiras and two-time European champion Porto tied 0-0 in their opening match of the Club World Cup on Sunday night before a crowd of 46,275 at MetLife Stadium, which was just over half full.
Estev茫o鈥檚 left-footed shot in first-half stoppage time went into the hands of Cla煤dio Ramos, and Richard R铆os鈥 attempt off the rebound was blocked.
Palmeiras, Brazil鈥檚 club champion in 2022 and 鈥23, qualified as the 2021 Copa Libertadores winner, while Porto reached the tournament as Europe鈥檚 fifth-ranked eligible team over a four-year period.
Palmeiras had a 17-11 advantage in shots and 55.3 percent possession. Its fans took over a side of the stadium, waving flags and cheering or the entire match.
Key Moment
Ramos鈥 double save in first-half stoppage time.
Takeaways
There is a four-way tie in Group A, which opened with Inter Miami and Al Ahly鈥檚 drawing 0-0 on Saturday, Palmeiras will face 12 -time African champion Al Ahly on Thursday in East Rutherford and Porto will play Miami the same day in Atlanta.


G7 leaders gather in Canada for a summit overshadowed by Israel-Iran crisis and trade wars

G7 leaders gather in Canada for a summit overshadowed by Israel-Iran crisis and trade wars
Updated 16 June 2025

G7 leaders gather in Canada for a summit overshadowed by Israel-Iran crisis and trade wars

G7 leaders gather in Canada for a summit overshadowed by Israel-Iran crisis and trade wars
  • Israel鈥檚 strikes on Iran and Tehran鈥檚 retaliation, which appeared to catch many world leaders unawares, is the latest sign of a more volatile world

KANANASKIS, Alberta: Leaders of some of the world鈥檚 biggest economic are arriving in the Canadian Rockies on Sunday for a Group of Seven summit, overshadowed by an escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and US President Donald Trump鈥檚 unresolved trade war.
Israel鈥檚 strikes on Iran and Tehran鈥檚 retaliation, which appeared to catch many world leaders unawares, is the latest sign of a more volatile world.
Trump in recent days vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a US official told The Associated Press, in an indication of how far Israel was prepared to go.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he had discussed efforts to de-escalate the crisis with Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as other world leaders and said he expected 鈥渋ntense discussions鈥 would continue at the summit.
Trump is summit鈥檚 wild card
As summit host, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has decided to abandon the annual practice of issuing a joint statement, or communique, at the end of the meeting.
With other leaders wanting to talk to Trump in an effort to talk him out of imposing tariffs, the summit risks being a series of bilateral conversations rather than a show of unity.
Trump is the summit wild card. Looming over the meeting are his inflammatory threats to make Canada the 51st state and take over Greenland. French President Emmanuel Macron visited Greenland on Sunday for a highly symbolic stop on his way to Canada. Macron warned that Greenland is 鈥渘ot to be sold鈥 nor 鈥渢o be taken.鈥
鈥淓verybody in France, the European Union thinks that Greenland is not to be sold, not to be taken,鈥 he said during a news conference, applauded by the local crowd.
鈥淭he situation in Greenland is clearly a wakeup call for all Europeans. Let me tell you very directly that you鈥檙e not alone,鈥 Macron added.
Trump is scheduled to arrive late Sunday in Kananaskis, Alberta. He will have a bilateral meeting with Carney on Monday morning before the summit program begins.
鈥楬e tends to be a bully鈥
Leaders who are not part of the G7 but have been invited to the summit by Carney include the heads of state of India, Ukraine, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea, Australia, Mexico and the UAE. Avoiding tariffs will continue to be top of mind.
鈥淟eaders, and there are some new ones coming, will want to meet Donald Trump,鈥 said Peter Boehm, Canada鈥檚 counselor at the 2018 G7 summit in Quebec and a veteran of six G7 summits. 鈥淭rump doesn鈥檛 like the big round table as much he likes the one-on-one.鈥
Bilateral meetings with the American president can be fraught as Trump has used them to try to intimidate the leaders of Ukraine and South Africa.
Former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chr茅tien told a panel this week that if Trump does act out, leaders should ignore him and remain calm like Carney did in his recent Oval Office meeting.
鈥淗e tends to be a bully,鈥 Chr茅tien said. 鈥淚f Trump has decided to make a show to be in the news, he will do something crazy. Let him do it and keep talking normally.鈥
Last month Britain and the US announced they had struck a trade deal that will slash American tariffs on UK autos, steel and aluminum. It has yet to take effect, however, though British officials say they are not concerned the Trump administration might go back on its word.
Starmer鈥檚 attempts to woo Trump have left him in an awkward position with Canada, the UK鈥檚 former colony, close ally and fellow Commonwealth member. Starmer has also drawn criticism 鈥 especially from Canadians 鈥 for failing to address Trump鈥檚 stated desire to make Canada the 51st state.
Asked if he has told Trump to stop the 51st state threats, Starmer told The Associated Press: 鈥淚鈥檓 not going to get into the precise conversations I鈥檝e had, but let me be absolutely clear: Canada is an independent, sovereign country and a much-valued member of the Commonwealth.鈥
Zelensky expected to meet Trump
The war in Ukraine will be on the agenda. President Volodymyr Zelensky is due to attend the summit and is expected to meet with Trump, a reunion coming just months after their bruising Oval Office encounter which laid bare the risks of having a meeting with the US president.
Starmer met with Carney in Ottawa before the summit for talks focused on security and trade, in the first visit to Canada by a British prime minister for eight years.
German officials were keen to counter the suggestion that the summit would be a 鈥渟ix against one鈥 event, noting that the G7 countries have plenty of differences of emphasis among themselves on various issues.
鈥淭he only the problem you cannot forecast is what the president of the United States will do depending on the mood, the need to be in the news,鈥 said Chr茅tien.


World faces new nuclear arms race, researchers warn

World faces new nuclear arms race, researchers warn
Updated 16 June 2025

World faces new nuclear arms race, researchers warn

World faces new nuclear arms race, researchers warn
  • Israel 鈥 which does not acknowledge its nuclear weapons 鈥 is also believed to be modernizing its arsenal, which SIPRI estimated was about 90 warheads at the start of the year
  • SIPRI counted a total of 12,241 warheads in January 2025, of which 9,614 were in stockpiles for potential use

STOCKHOLM: Most of the world鈥檚 nuclear-armed states continued to modernize their arsenals last year, setting the stage for a new nuclear arms race, researchers warned Monday.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said nuclear powers including the United States and Russia 鈥 which account for around 90 percent of the world鈥檚 stockpile 鈥 had spent time last year 鈥渦pgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions.鈥
Since the end of the Cold War, old warheads have generally been dismantled quicker than new ones have been deployed, resulting in a decrease in the overall number of warheads.
But SIPRI warned that the trend was likely to be reversed in the coming years.
鈥淲hat we see now, first of all, is that the number of operational nuclear warheads is beginning to increase,鈥 SIPRI Director Dan Smith told AFP.
This was especially the case with China, which SIPRI said had about 600 nuclear warheads and had added 100 new warheads in 2023 and 2024.
鈥淐hina is increasing its nuclear force steadily,鈥 Smith said, adding that the country could reach 1,000 warheads in seven or eight years.
While that would still be well short of Russian and US arsenals it would make China 鈥渁 much bigger player,鈥 said Smith.
He said the world faced new threats 鈥渁t a particularly dangerous and unstable moment鈥 for geopolitics, adding: 鈥淲e see the warning signs of a new nuclear arms race coming.鈥

SIPRI counted a total of 12,241 warheads in January 2025, of which 9,614 were in stockpiles for potential use.
The institute noted in its report that both Russia and the United States had 鈥渆xtensive programs under way to modernize and replace their nuclear warheads.鈥
The United Kingdom was not believed to have increased its number of warheads in 2024, but SIPRI said that given the country鈥檚 2021 decision to raise its limit on the number of warheads from 225 to 260, it was likely to increase in the future.
Similarly, while France鈥檚 arsenal was believed to have remained steady at around 290, 鈥渋ts nuclear modernization program progressed during 2024.鈥
India and Pakistan both 鈥渃ontinued to develop new types of nuclear weapon delivery systems in 2024.鈥
India had a 鈥済rowing stockpile鈥 of about 180 nuclear weapons at the start of 2025, the institute said, while Pakistan鈥檚 arsenal remained steady at about 170 warheads.

SIPRI also noted that North Korea鈥檚 nuclear weapons program remained 鈥渃entral to its national security strategy,鈥 estimating that it had around 50 warheads and was believed to possess 鈥渆nough fissile material to reach a total of up to 90 warheads.鈥
Israel 鈥 which does not acknowledge its nuclear weapons 鈥 is also believed to be modernizing its arsenal, which SIPRI estimated was about 90 warheads at the start of the year.
Smith stressed that the looming nuclear arms race would not just be about 鈥渢he numbers of warheads.鈥
鈥淚t鈥檚 an arms race which is going to be highly technological,鈥 Smith said.
He added that it would be both in 鈥渙uter space and in cyberspace鈥 as the software directing and guiding nuclear weapons would be an area of competition.
The rapid development of artificial intelligence will also likely begin to play a part, at first as a complement to humans.
鈥淭he next step would be moving toward full automation. That is a step that must never be taken,鈥 Smith said.
鈥淚f our prospects of being free of the danger of nuclear war were to be left in the hands of an artificial intelligence, I think that then we would be close to the doomsday scenarios.鈥