LONDON: Across Baghdad’s avenues and winding alleys, campaign posters line the streets, creating a festive air. Yet beneath the bright banners, a mood of indifference prevails for many Iraqis; some passers-by ignore the oversize candidate photos, unmoved by the spectacle.
More than two decades after Saddam Hussein’s fall ushered in democratic rule, Iraqis return to the polls for the seventh time on Tuesday, Nov. 11, to choose a new 329-seat parliament from over 7,700 candidates.
While the election unfolds in rare calm, widespread disengagement marks the political climate — a trend experts say could produce the lowest turnout since 2003.
“The electoral mood is apathetic. Many Iraqis view the vote as unlikely to change entrenched power structures, even as the country enjoys relative calm,” Hayder Al-Shakeri, research fellow with the Middle East North Africa program at Chatham House, told Arab News.
A member of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) prepares to cast his vote at a polling station, two days before polls open to the public in a parliamentary election, in Najaf, Iraq, November 9, 2025. (Reuters)
Iraq goes to these elections three years after the rise of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, in the shadow of chronic instability, economic hardship and deep distrust in national leadership.
Yet, a recent Gallup survey suggests public attitudes may be shifting. Confidence in government now stands at a record 55 percent, and trust in institutions including the police, military and courts is also at its highest level in years — though still short of the country’s Gulf neighbors.
Despite this new optimism, analysts say persistent problems hold Iraq back.
“Despite the country experiencing a rare period of relative stability, analysts and surveys suggest that many Iraqis feel profoundly disconnected from a political system viewed as stagnant, exclusionary and incapable of delivering meaningful reform,” Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst based in Baghdad and a fellow at Century International, told Arab News.
Displaced Iraqis have their IDs checked as they arrive to vote at a polling station to vote ahead of the November 11 parliamentary election, in the Debaga camp east of Makhmur, in northern Iraq on November 9, 2025. (AFP)
Jiyad cites the dominance of armed groups and established parties, absence of credible alternatives, and repeated cycles of unfulfilled promises as chief reasons for voter apathy.
He added that controversies that have deepened public alienation include electoral laws such as candidate disqualification, exclusion of overseas polling and the introduction of biometric voter cards that analysts say limits the number of eligible voters.
Also causing disquiet are socioeconomic grievances, and the sense that elections have become ritualized rather than a path to reform.
During his tenure, Al-Sudani advanced an “Iraq First” agenda focused on economic diversification, digitization of government, improving infrastructure and reducing oil dependence.
Hamzeh Hadad, adjunct fellow at Center for a New American Security. (Supplied)
He emerged as a chief proponent of the Development Road project, a $17-billion trade corridor linking the Faw Port on the Arabian Gulf to the Turkish border.
Yet in a country where nearly 60 percent of the population is under 25, employment and opportunity remain elusive for many, and young Iraqis see rampant corruption and patronage as serious barriers to progress.
“The government’s approach has focused on short-term infrastructure and service projects that show quick results but stop short of systemic reform. Core issues, such as corruption, impunity and the capture of state institutions, remain unaddressed,” said Shakeri.
INNUMBERS:
• 21.4m Eligible voters who hold valid biometric voter cards.
• 7,744 Candidates, mostly from largely sectarian-aligned parties alongside some independents, in the fray.
• 329 Parliamentary seats are up for grabs.
Considered by many as a capable technocrat able to navigate Iraq’s sectarian complexities, Al-Sudani is widely seen as the favorite to win Tuesday’s vote.
According to a new poll by the Independent Institute of Administration and Civil Society Studies, Al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Alliance leads with about 29 percent of projected seats.
This is followed by the Taqaddum Alliance with 14 percent, and the State of Law Coalition with 11 percent. The same report indicates turnout could fall to just 30 percent — measured among those with biometric voting cards, not the broader electorate.
Employees of Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) count votes at the end of the parliamentary election, at a polling station in Arbil, the capital of Iraq's autonomous northern Kurdish region, on November 9, 2025. (AFP)
“People have seen a visible change in their country, particularly in the capital Baghdad, with paved roads, bridges, and various apartment complexes being built, and that will encourage people to go out and vote, that is what the incumbent PM is campaigning on and hoping will push him to a second term,” said Hamzeh Hadad, an adjunct fellow with the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
Hadad added: “The next government will be another coalition government that looks similar to the current one, even if the faces of ministers or the prime minister change, which goes back to one of the causes that leads to voter apathy or a boycott movement for those who see it as an avenue to change this.”
For Jiyad, recent electoral reforms have “largely entrenched old power structures rather than fostered genuine democratic governance, deeply shaping low public confidence in the political process and reinforcing disillusionment with electoral democracy.”
Hayder Al-Shakeri, research fellow with the MENA program at Chatham House. (Supplied)
He predicted the vote would solidify Al-Sudani’s position within what he described as a “complex coalition landscape marked by Sunni political mobilization and Kurdish bloc influence.”
But that “persistent fragmentation and sectarian divides will complicate governance and power sharing post-election.”
Iraq still operates under the Muhasasa power-sharing system established after 2003, dividing top posts among Shiite (prime minister), Sunni (parliamentary speaker) and Kurdish (president) elites.
Meant to ensure representation and prevent dominance by any one group, the system is widely criticized for reinforcing sectarianism, corruption and constraining meaningful competition.
A laborer riding a horse cart carrying cooking gas cylinders, passes election posters in Baghdad, Iraq, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025. (AP)
Although the protests of 2018 and 2019 and the subsequent reforms made space for independents and pushed through changes for the 2021 elections, the core Muhasasa system has remained intact, with political elites retaining control through only minor cosmetic adjustments.
“People think their votes will not make any significant change,” Munqith Dagher, CEO and founder of the Independent Institute of Administration and Civil Society Studies, told Arab News. “The Iraqi system is not based on who win the elections but on the tradeoffs between different blocks.”
Experts say that broad disengagement and what they see as a wider boycott risk further entrenching elite rule and deepening the gap between citizens and the government.
“In the short term, this may preserve stability, but over time it risks widening the legitimacy gap and prompting new cycles of frustration amongst society,” Chatham House’s Al-Shakeri said.
FASTFACTS
• Iraq has a Muhasasa power-sharing system established after 2003, which allocates key positions among sectarian groups: a Shiite for prime minister, Kurd for president, and Sunni for parliamentary speaker.
• Despite protests in 2018 and 2019 that prompted reforms and created openings for independents in the 2021 elections, the core Muhasasa system remains largely intact.
• Experts warn that the perception of elections as a ritual rather than a genuine path to reform deepens public alienation and risks widening the divide between citizens and their government.
Hadad warns it could be even more worrying. “What it does do (is) lessen the credibility of the government, and this could lead to massive protests like we saw in 2019.”
But while the election season at home is marked by apathy and fears of renewed protests, foreign powers are watching.
Muqtada Al-Sadr’s shadow looms large despite his boycott of the 2025 vote. His movement continues to mobilize significant support through nationalist, anti-corruption rhetoric.
Iraqi soldiers stand in line to enter the polling station to cast their votes, during a special voting day for Iraqi security forces, taking place two days before polls open to the public in the parliamentary elections, in Baghdad on November 9, 2025. (AFP)
Al-Sadr’s relationship with Iran is complex — marked by a pragmatic yet often adversarial balance. Tehran remains Baghdad’s most intrusive external player.
“Tehran views Iraq as a strategic ally and a vital component of its regional network. The presence of Iran-aligned parties and armed factions within the new parliament will determine Tehran’s leverage,” said Jiyad.
Despite recent setbacks for Iran regionally, it seeks to maintain strong influence in Baghdad, while the US also pushes for a greater say — pressuring Iraq to curb pro-Iran militias and promising cooperation on energy and security if its position is strengthened.
A displaced man from the Yazidi minority votes during a special voting, two days before polls open to the public in a parliamentary election, at the Sharya camp, in Duhok, Iraq, November 9, 2025. (Reuters)
Jiyad added: “The US is intensifying pressure on Iraq to disarm or rein in pro-Iran militias, linking this to broader cooperation on energy projects and security. Strong electoral support for factions opposed to militias could improve US-Iraq cooperation.”
For Al-Shakeri, if the current power structure holds, Iraq will be forced to continue its careful balancing act between Washington and Tehran.
“Yet maintaining that balance will become increasingly difficult as both the US and Iran push to put pressure on Baghdad amid renewed regional tensions and shifting power dynamics within Iraq itself.”
Traffic flows past electoral billboards in central Baghdad on October 19, 2025, as Iraq prepares for parliamentary elections on November 11. (AFP)
Ultimately, according to Hadad, from the Center for a New American Security, “Iraq needs more time to mature democratically and more years of stability before it can counter foreign influence.
“Yes, there is relative stability in Iraq today, but it has not been that long, especially in comparison to the past of many decades of war and instability.”
