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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan last month paid a historic visit to Turkiye, marking the first official trip by an Armenian leader — aside from President Serzh Sargsyan’s 2009 attendance at a football match in Turkiye.

Pashinyan was received by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul. The visit sought to foster the normalization process between Ankara and Yerevan that formally began in 2022 with the appointment of special envoys by both sides. The diplomatic efforts are being strongly supported at the leadership level. Erdogan and Pashinyan have met at several international summits in recent years. Pashinyan also visited Turkiye in 2023 to attend Erdogan’s inauguration. As confirmed by Pashinyan, Ankara and Yerevan are now able to communicate directly, without relying on third-party intermediaries.

Since assuming office in 2018, Pashinyan — who is seen as a pragmatic leader — has placed great importance on the normalization process with Turkiye. He has been trying to pursue a significant shift in Armenia’s foreign policy, with economic incentives playing a critical role. He has increasingly engaged in high-level discussions and strategic partnerships with Western institutions, some of which Turkiye is also a part. For Armenia, Turkiye’s membership of both the EU Customs Union and NATO is significant.

However, the steps taken toward normalization in Turkish-Armenian relations, and Pashinyan’s visit in particular, cannot be separated from the regional context, as the latter took place while Iran — a neighbor to both Turkiye and Armenia — was being hit by Israeli airstrikes. Like Turkiye, Armenia was deeply concerned about the escalating tensions unfolding on its doorstep.

Armenia has faced heightened security and economic challenges due to this tension. Iran and Georgia are Armenia’s only land gateways to international markets, given that the Turkish and Azerbaijani borders remain closed. More than 30 percent of Armenia’s trade passes through Iran. Following Israel’s strikes on Iran, Armenia’s economy minister stated that Armenian goods were stuck at the Iranian border and warned that the country might face shortages of certain items.

Pashinyan — who is seen as a pragmatic leader — has placed great importance on the normalization process with Turkiye. 

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Armenia has also been facing difficulties in the transit of its goods via Georgia. The situation with Tbilisi, combined with the Israel-Iran tensions, further raises the strategic importance and urgency of opening the border with Turkiye after decades of closure. Gaining access to new markets via Turkiye, which serves as an energy hub connecting Europe and Central Asia, could drastically reduce Armenia’s dependence on both Iran and Russia. A senior diplomat from Armenia’s Foreign Ministry recently shared Yerevan’s approach with me, saying: “Opening the border with Turkiye, a member of the EU Customs Union, is significant for Armenia’s regional connectivity and further engagement with Western institutions.”

The Turkish side sees opening the border as an opportunity to increase economic integration with Armenia, while also viewing the country as a key route to the so-called Middle Corridor, which would directly connect Turkiye to Central Asia.

Armenia and Turkiye also share a common concern over the potential influx of people from Iran due to the tensions with Israel. In January, for the first time since its independence in 1991, Armenia assumed full control of the Agarak border checkpoint along its border with Iran. Armenian border guards replaced Russia’s Border Service, which had managed the checkpoint for more than three decades. This transition reflected broader geopolitical shifts related to Armenia’s approach to Russia. Historically, Yerevan’s security was linked to its alliance with Moscow, whose credibility as Armenia’s security guarantor has suffered a significant blow in recent years.

Turkiye and Armenia also share common concerns about the Israel-Iran conflict spilling into the South Caucasus — a region in which several countries have significant stakes. Armenia, which is aligned with Iran, condemned the Israeli strikes, while Azerbaijan, a close Israeli ally, reassured Tehran it would not allow Tel Aviv to use its territory to launch operations against Iran.

Turkiye and Armenia share common concerns about the Israel-Iran conflict spilling into the South Caucasus. 

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

However, as Iranian influence wanes and Russia remains preoccupied with Ukraine, Turkiye’s influence in the South Caucasus is growing. Within this context, Ankara is working behind the scenes to prevent any renewed tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Ankara is also pushing Baku to sign a peace agreement with Yerevan, as the path to Turkiye’s normalization with Armenia goes through a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan. It has been reported that Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet in Dubai this month to negotiate this long-awaited peace deal — which is to be welcomed by Ankara.

Within this context, Armenia is recalibrating its defense and foreign policy approach to achieve both economic relief and a sense of security. Turkiye fits squarely into this new approach. Armenia is effectively seeking to end its landlocked status by opening its border with Turkiye, breaking away from Russia’s sphere of influence by engaging in strategic partnerships with Western institutions, and preventing any negative repercussions of the Israel-Iran tensions on its security and economy.

Unlike previous moves toward normalization, this time, in addition to goodwill, the escalating tensions in the region serve as a significant driving force. Like Turkiye, Armenia has to navigate the volatile environment caused by the Israel-Iran tensions with a balanced policy — a task that may become difficult if regional tensions flare again. However, their shared concerns and mutual interest in the stability of the South Caucasus could help mitigate the repercussions and pave the way toward normalization.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz