Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gain as Middle East tensions keep market on edge

Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gain as Middle East tensions keep market on edge
Brent crude futures climbed 18 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $74.56 a barrel by 6:42 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 25 October 2024

Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gain as Middle East tensions keep market on edge

Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gain as Middle East tensions keep market on edge

SINGAPORE: Oil prices nudged higher on Friday and are on track for a weekly gain of more than 1 percent, as tensions in the world’s top oil-producing region, the Middle East, and a restart in Gaza ceasefire talks in the coming days kept traders on edge.

Brent crude futures climbed 18 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $74.56 a barrel by 6:42 a.m. Saudi time while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.34 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent.

“We remain of the view that the right price for crude oil currently is around $70 where it is now, as we await fresh price drivers, including the outcome of China’s NPC Standing Committee meeting as well as Israel’s response to Iran’s October 1 missile attack,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note, referring to WTI prices.

Both benchmarks settled down 58 cents a barrel in the previous session after prices fluctuated against expectations of heightened or reduced tensions in the Middle East.

Oil traders are waiting for Israel’s response to a missile attack by Iran on Oct. 1 that may involve hitting Tehran’s oil infrastructure and disrupt supplies, although reports said Israel would strike Iranian military, not nuclear or oil, targets.

US and Israeli officials are set to restart talks for a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza in the coming days. Previous attempts to reach a deal have failed.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday that Washington does not want a protracted Israeli campaign in Lebanon, while France has called for a ceasefire and focus on diplomacy.

Ceasefire talks have a small net negative impact on oil prices, Sycamore said, adding the focus is more on the conflict in Lebanon and Israel’s potential response to Iran.

Investors are also eyeing more clarity on Beijing’s stimulus policies, although analysts do not expect such measures to provide a major boost to oil demand from China, the world’s No. 2 consumer.

Goldman Sachs on Thursday left its oil, natural gas, and coal price forecasts unchanged, estimating Chinese stimulus boosts to energy prices that are modest relative to bigger drivers such as oil supply from the Middle East and winter weather for natural gas.

It forecasts Brent in the $70 to $85 range. 


IMF raises Saudi growth forecast to 4% for 2025 and 2026 

IMF raises Saudi growth forecast to 4% for 2025 and 2026 
Updated 14 October 2025

IMF raises Saudi growth forecast to 4% for 2025 and 2026 

IMF raises Saudi growth forecast to 4% for 2025 and 2026 

RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund has raised ’s economic growth forecast to 4 percent for both 2025 and 2026. 

In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF upgraded the Kingdom’s 2025 projection from the 3.6 percent it forecast in July, along with an estimate of 3.9 percent for 2026.

The IMF’s updated forecast is broadly in line with projections from other institutions. The World Bank this month said the Saudi economy will expand 3.2 percent in 2025, accelerating to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027. In September, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also raised its 2026 growth estimate for the Kingdom to 3.9 percent from 2.5 percent. 

Globally, the IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. 

In its latest report, the institution said: “Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is projected to accelerate, from 2.6 percent in 2024 to 3.5 percent in 2025 and to 3.8 percent in 2026.” 

The IMF said the forecast largely reflects developments in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, in particular .

The report also noted that is expected to maintain an annual inflation rate of 2.1 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026. 

Regional outlook 

The Middle East and North Africa region is expected to post economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2025, rising to 3.7 percent in 2026. 

The IMF projected that the UAE economy will expand by 4.8 percent in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026. 

Qatar is forecast to grow 2.9 percent this year before accelerating to 6.1 percent in 2026. 

Following a slowdown in 2024, Kuwait’s economy is set to rebound in 2025, with growth projected at 2.6 percent. 

The IMF added that both Oman and Bahrain are expected to grow by 2.9 percent in 2025. 

Global outlook 

The IMF attributed the stronger global outlook to several factors, noting that growth is now projected at 3.2 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year. 

The fund said prospects have improved “thanks to the agility of the private sector, which front-loaded imports in the first half of the year and speedily reorganized supply chains to redirect trade flows.” 

It also cited the negotiation of new trade deals between various countries and the US, along with restraint from much of the world, which has largely kept the trading system open. 

Among advanced economies, the US is projected to grow 2 percent in 2025 and 2.1 percent in 2026, while the UK is expected to expand 1.3 percent in both years. 

In emerging markets, India leads with growth of 6.6 percent in 2025 and 6.2 percent in 2026, while the Chinese economy is forecast to expand 4.8 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges up to 11,596

Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges up to 11,596
Updated 14 October 2025

Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges up to 11,596

Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges up to 11,596

RIYADH: ’s Tadawul All Share Index continued its upward movement for the second consecutive day, as it gained 4.31 points or 0.04 percent to close at 11,596. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR5.82 billion ($1.55 billion), with 82 of the listed stocks advancing and 171 declining. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, however, shed 113.94 points or 0.44 percent to close at 25,689.28. 

The MSCI Tadawul Index edged up by 0.25 percent to 1,510.45. 

The best-performing stock on the main market was Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores Co. The firm’s share price increased by 4.97 percent to SR49.80. 

The share price of Al Mawarid Manpower Co. rose by 4.38 percent to SR138.10. 

Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co. also saw its stock price climb by 4.37 percent to SR8.59.

Conversely, the share price of Naseej International Trading Co. declined by 8.25 percent to SR71.15. 

Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co., also known as Cenomi Retail, also saw a decline with its share price dropping by 3.69 percent to SR25.04. 

On the announcements front, Balady Poultry Co. said that it signed two land lease agreements with ’s Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture for a period of nineteen Hijri years — approximately 18 years and 6 months.

Under the contract, the company secured two land plots in Wadi Al-Dawasir, Riyadh, spanning an area of 27.7 million meters and 23 million meters, for an annual rent of SR222,619 and SR190,274, respectively.

Through this investment, the firm aims to ramp up the production of broiler chickens, with most barns expected to be dedicated to the production of heavy-weight broiler chickens. 

Balady Poultry Co. said that the move aligns with the firm’s wider strategy to expand the poultry business with investments exceeding SR1.14 billion. 

The company added that the investment will achieve a good rate of return that will be positively reflected on the company’s financial statements once the facilities start operations. 

The share price of Balady Poultry Co. edged up by 1.64 percent to SR154.50. 


Egypt inks BP-Valaris drilling deal to boost Mediterranean gas output 

Egypt inks BP-Valaris drilling deal to boost Mediterranean gas output 
Updated 14 October 2025

Egypt inks BP-Valaris drilling deal to boost Mediterranean gas output 

Egypt inks BP-Valaris drilling deal to boost Mediterranean gas output 

JEDDAH: Egypt has signed a new offshore drilling contract with BP and US-based Valaris for five gas wells in the Mediterranean Sea, as it accelerates efforts to boost output and attract foreign investment. 

Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi witnessed the signing of the agreement, which marks the launch of BP’s latest drilling program in Egypt. The project will target five natural gas wells at depths ranging from 300 to 1,500 meters, using the Valaris 12-DS deepwater drilling rig, the ministry said in a statement. 

The initiative aligns with the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources’ strategy to boost international investment and broaden exploration efforts in the North African nation. It also continues BP’s more than 60-year partnership with Egypt’s petroleum sector as a major partner in oil and gas exploration and production. 

“BP is one of the petroleum sector’s most important strategic partners in natural gas production,” the ministry quoted Badawi as saying. 

He added that recent gas production projects in the Mediterranean have been “pivotal in increasing domestic gas production and securing new resources during peak summer consumption.” 

Badawi said the ministry is fully supporting new projects to accelerate their implementation, with the goal of adding fresh gas output over the coming year, discovering new reservoirs, and strengthening Egypt’s production capacity while reducing import dependence. 

The contract was signed in the presence of Mahmoud Abdel Hamid, CEO of the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co., following a memorandum of understanding last month in London between EGAS and BP that the minister had signed. 

Egypt’s oil and gas production has entered a phase of gradual growth since August, following a four-year decline, with natural gas output increasing by more than 200 million cubic feet per day, the ministry said. 

This boost has helped the government reduce the fuel import bill by $3.6 billion and settle $1 billion in arrears owed to international partners. 

“The new drilling program is scheduled to begin in 2026 and covers a mix of appraisal, development, and exploration wells aimed at accelerating the development and production of gas reserves in the region, while leveraging existing onshore and offshore infrastructure in the West Nile Delta area,” the statement added. 

Nader Zaki, BP’s regional president for the Middle East and North Africa, said the signing strengthens the company’s long-standing partnership with Egypt and is a strategic step to develop more gas resources in the Nile Delta and bring them online quickly to meet local demand. 


Saudi business sector surpasses 1.7m registrations

Saudi business sector surpasses 1.7m registrations
Updated 14 October 2025

Saudi business sector surpasses 1.7m registrations

Saudi business sector surpasses 1.7m registrations

JEDDAH: ’s business landscape is expanding at a record pace, with commercial registrations surpassing 1.7 million by the end of the third quarter of 2025, data from the Ministry of Commerce showed. 

The ministry’s Business Sector Bulletin showed that over 128,000 new commercial records were issued in the three-month period.  

The report highlighted that institutions accounted for more than 1.2 million registrations, a 21 percent rise over the past five years. The number of limited liability companies climbed to 502,000, marking an increase of 158 percent, while joint-stock company registrations reached 4,488, up 49 percent from 2020. 

The surge highlights ’s drive to improve ease of doing business and diversify its economy under Vision 2030, supported by reforms such as the new Commercial Register and Trade Names laws.

It streamlined procedures by eliminating subsidiary registers and city-based requirements, making a single registration valid nationwide. 

In the bulletin, the ministry “highlighted developments in promising sectors, noting growth in commercial registrations in activities such as video game development and production, augmented reality technologies, logistics, e-commerce, and other industries aligned with ’s Vision 2030.”  

Total e-commerce commercial registrations by the end of the third quarter reached 41,816, marking a 5 percent growth compared with the same period last year, when total registrations stood at 39,769. 

Registrations in virtual and augmented reality technologies surged 59 percent by the end of the third quarter of 2025, reaching 10,492 compared with 6,597 in the same period in 2024. 

The video gaming industry grew to 614 licenses by the third quarter, marking a 102 percent increase compared with the same period in 2024. Riyadh and Makkah recorded the highest numbers, with 290 and 166 licenses, respectively. 

App development licenses rose 45 percent, reaching 20,973 in the third quarter compared with 14,452 registrations in the same period last year. Riyadh led with 12,762 licenses, followed by Makkah with 4,205 permits. 

Registrations for recreation centers increased 40 percent, reaching 6,965 compared with 4,942 during the same period in 2024. Most of these licenses were issued in Riyadh and Makkah, with 3,058 and 1,890 licenses, respectively. 

Moreover, the hospitality sector grew 91 percent in the same quarter, reaching 11,987 licenses compared with 6,262 in the same period in 2024. Makkah led the cities with 4,462 registrations, followed by Riyadh with 4,317. 

The exhibitions sector recorded notable growth, with active registrations rising 43 percent by the end of the third quarter. The sector reached 26,372 registrations, up from 18,443 in the same period in 2024. Riyadh came first with 13,813 registrations, while Makkah registered 6,873 licenses. 

Licenses for logistics services increased 49 percent to reach 22,290 registrations, compared with 14,880 during the same period in 2024. 


Saudi non-oil sector to drive 3.5% annual GDP growth through 2028: S&P Global 

Saudi non-oil sector to drive 3.5% annual GDP growth through 2028: S&P Global 
Updated 14 October 2025

Saudi non-oil sector to drive 3.5% annual GDP growth through 2028: S&P Global 

Saudi non-oil sector to drive 3.5% annual GDP growth through 2028: S&P Global 

RIYADH: ’s non-oil sector is expected to contribute up to 3.5 percent annually to the Kingdom’s gross domestic product growth between 2025 and 2028, according to an expert from S&P Global. 

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Hina Shoeb, head of analytics, cross practice ratings at S&P Global , said that this growing contribution will be supported by both government and private investments in sectors such as real estate, tourism, and infrastructure. 

This comes as ’s real GDP grew 3.9 percent in the second quarter, driven by strong non-oil activity that extended its growth streak to 18 consecutive quarters.

Non-oil sectors rose 4.6 percent year on year in April–June, highlighting the Kingdom’s rapid economic diversification. 

She added that the growth of the non-oil sector aligns with the continued economic momentum in the country, resulting from Vision 2030 reforms, which aim to enhance economic diversification and reduce dependence on oil revenues. 

“Non-oil sectors have become a major driver of economic activity in the Kingdom, supported by housing programs, mortgage financing, and the expansion of mega-projects,” Shoeb told Asharq. 

The S&P official added that the economy in the Kingdom is moving toward a sustainable transformation driven by long-term investment spending. 

In August, the International Monetary Fund highlighted the resilience of the Saudi economy, stating that the Kingdom will see GDP growth of 3.6 percent in 2025, accelerating to 3.9 percent in 2026. 

Earlier this month, S&P Global noted that ’s Vision 2030 program is transforming the country’s economic landscape by creating substantial growth opportunities in the corporate sector and spurring project financing in infrastructure. 

The report added that non-oil activity is expected to contribute approximately 57 percent of GDP in 2025, with this share rising when oil prices decline and falling when they increase. 

In May, ’s General Authority for Statistics reported that GDP grew 2.7 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by strong non-oil activity. 

Commenting on these figures at that time, Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who chairs GASTAT’s board, said the contribution of non-oil activities reached 53.2 percent of the Kingdom’s economic output — up 5.7 percent from previous estimates. 

He added that ’s economic outlook remains positive, supported by structural reforms and high-quality, state-led projects across multiple sectors.