IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025

IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025
Historically, China has driven over 60 percent of global oil demand growth over the past decade. (Reuters/File)
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Updated 22 October 2024

IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025

IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025
  • Global oil prices are currently around $70 per barrel, having dropped over 7 percent last week, even amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East

RIYADH: The International Energy Agency forecasts weak oil demand growth in China for 2025, despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing. 

As the world’s second-largest economy shifts toward electrifying its car fleet and experiences slower growth, this trend is expected to continue, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Historically, China has driven over 60 percent of global oil demand growth over the past decade, with an average economic growth rate of 6.1 percent. However, Birol noted that with the economy projected to grow around 4 percent, energy needs are likely to decline. He highlighted that the demand for electric vehicles, now competitive with traditional cars, will contribute to this decrease.

Birol remarked that the impact of China’s fiscal stimulus has been less significant than anticipated, stating, “It will be very difficult to see a major uptick in Chinese oil demand.” 

Global oil prices are currently around $70 per barrel, having dropped over 7 percent last week, even amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Birol pointed out that one reason for the muted price reaction is the weak demand observed this year, with expectations of continued weakness next year. 

He noted that without the petrochemical sector, Chinese oil demand would have remained flat.

Additionally, increased supply from non-OPEC producers — such as the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana — outpaces global oil demand growth, further limiting price increases. 

When asked about the possibility of OPEC+ unwinding production cuts in 2025, Birol stated that the decision lies with OPEC, but he anticipates a surplus in the oil market next year unless significant geopolitical changes occur.

Brent crude futures rose by $1.16, or 1.6 percent, to reach $74.22 a barrel at 10:36 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $1.32, or 1.9 percent, settling at $70.54 a barrel.

Both Brent and WTI experienced significant declines last week, with Brent falling over 7 percent and WTI losing around 8 percent.


Egypt inks BP-Valaris drilling deal to boost Mediterranean gas output 

Egypt inks BP-Valaris drilling deal to boost Mediterranean gas output 
Updated 14 October 2025

Egypt inks BP-Valaris drilling deal to boost Mediterranean gas output 

Egypt inks BP-Valaris drilling deal to boost Mediterranean gas output 

JEDDAH: Egypt has signed a new offshore drilling contract with BP and US-based Valaris for five gas wells in the Mediterranean Sea, as it accelerates efforts to boost output and attract foreign investment. 

Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi witnessed the signing of the agreement, which marks the launch of BP’s latest drilling program in Egypt. The project will target five natural gas wells at depths ranging from 300 to 1,500 meters, using the Valaris 12-DS deepwater drilling rig, the ministry said in a statement. 

The initiative aligns with the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources’ strategy to boost international investment and broaden exploration efforts in the North African nation. It also continues BP’s more than 60-year partnership with Egypt’s petroleum sector as a major partner in oil and gas exploration and production. 

“BP is one of the petroleum sector’s most important strategic partners in natural gas production,” the ministry quoted Badawi as saying. 

He added that recent gas production projects in the Mediterranean have been “pivotal in increasing domestic gas production and securing new resources during peak summer consumption.” 

Badawi said the ministry is fully supporting new projects to accelerate their implementation, with the goal of adding fresh gas output over the coming year, discovering new reservoirs, and strengthening Egypt’s production capacity while reducing import dependence. 

The contract was signed in the presence of Mahmoud Abdel Hamid, CEO of the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co., following a memorandum of understanding last month in London between EGAS and BP that the minister had signed. 

Egypt’s oil and gas production has entered a phase of gradual growth since August, following a four-year decline, with natural gas output increasing by more than 200 million cubic feet per day, the ministry said. 

This boost has helped the government reduce the fuel import bill by $3.6 billion and settle $1 billion in arrears owed to international partners. 

“The new drilling program is scheduled to begin in 2026 and covers a mix of appraisal, development, and exploration wells aimed at accelerating the development and production of gas reserves in the region, while leveraging existing onshore and offshore infrastructure in the West Nile Delta area,” the statement added. 

Nader Zaki, BP’s regional president for the Middle East and North Africa, said the signing strengthens the company’s long-standing partnership with Egypt and is a strategic step to develop more gas resources in the Nile Delta and bring them online quickly to meet local demand. 


Saudi Midad Energy, Algeria’s Sonatrach ink $5.4bn hydrocarbon deal 

Saudi Midad Energy, Algeria’s Sonatrach ink $5.4bn hydrocarbon deal 
Updated 14 October 2025

Saudi Midad Energy, Algeria’s Sonatrach ink $5.4bn hydrocarbon deal 

Saudi Midad Energy, Algeria’s Sonatrach ink $5.4bn hydrocarbon deal 

JEDDAH: ’s Midad Energy North Africa signed a $5.4 billion production-sharing contract with Algeria’s Sonatrach to explore and develop hydrocarbons in the Illizi Basin.

The agreement was signed in Algiers in the presence of Saudi Ambassador Abdullah bin Nasser Al-Busairi and Algerian Minister of Energy and Mines Mohamed Arkab, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

Under the deal, Midad Energy will fully finance the project, including $288 million earmarked for exploration. The contract runs for 30 years, with an option to extend for an additional 10 years, and includes a seven-year exploration phase. 

The partnership, one of ’s largest private energy investments in North Africa, aims to boost Algeria’s upstream production and strengthen energy cooperation between the two OPEC member states. 

“By the end of the contractual period, total production is expected to reach about 993 million barrels of oil equivalent, including 125 billion cubic meters of natural gas,” SPA reported. 

The deal supports Algeria’s efforts to reinforce its position as a key energy supplier to global markets while meeting domestic demand and advancing a transition toward more sustainable sources. 


Energy transition now ‘energy addition,’ needs long-term investment: Aramco CEO

Energy transition now ‘energy addition,’ needs long-term investment: Aramco CEO
Updated 13 October 2025

Energy transition now ‘energy addition,’ needs long-term investment: Aramco CEO

Energy transition now ‘energy addition,’ needs long-term investment: Aramco CEO

RIYADH: A global reassessment of the energy transition is underway, with long-term investment in oil and gas expected to remain essential to meet rising global energy demand, Aramco’s chief said. 

Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Amin Nasser emphasized that future energy policy must be grounded in supply realism and demand growth. 

The company’s president and CEO said the company remains focused on expanding its oil, gas, and chemicals businesses while also advancing strategic investments in technology and digital infrastructure to sustain long-term growth in a shifting global market. 

“Much of the promised progress has not been delivered, with many unintended consequences,” Nasser said.   

“In reality, this is not a true energy transition; it’s an energy addition which requires all hands on deck.”  

He added that major forecasters have revised their scenarios, with oil and gas expected to remain core components of the energy mix for decades, which he sees as a signal to support long-term investment in both sectors. 

Industry forecasts appear to align with Nasser’s analysis. According to Fitch Ratings, global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day through 2026, signaling continued reliance on hydrocarbons despite ongoing energy transition efforts. 

The International Energy Agency also reported in its Global Energy Review 2025 that energy demand surged in 2024 across all major sources — renewables, fossil fuels, and nuclear — highlighting that current renewable capacity expansion is insufficient to offset rising consumption.   

This underscores Nasser’s assertion that the world is not undergoing a true transition, but rather an “energy addition,” where new sources are supplementing rather than replacing traditional fuels.  

Meanwhile, the European Environment Agency noted in its latest trends and projections to report that the EU remains off-track on several energy and climate targets, reflecting broader implementation challenges even in advanced economies.  

“Even in the Global North, the economic realities, technology limits, and public acceptance of the current transition plan are forcing some welcome policy U-turns,” Nasser said.  

On Aramco’s long-term strategy, Nasser reaffirmed the company’s commitment to maintaining dominance in oil production.   

“We are determined to remain dominant in oil thanks to a massive resource base, low costs, and one of the lowest upstream carbon intensities across the industry,” he said.  

Aramco is also intensifying its investments in natural gas, particularly in unconventional resources, which Nasser described as one of the world’s largest reserves.   

He noted that despite market challenges, the company sees chemicals as a strategic growth area, citing its “proven strengths in both feedstocks and conversion.” 

In terms of technology, Aramco is expanding its deployment of artificial intelligence and digital solutions to boost efficiency and sustainability.   

“We continue to deliver efficiency improvements, and are further reducing our upstream carbon and methane intensities,” Nasser said.   

He highlighted Aramco’s $7 billion venture capital program and its focus on developing scalable technologies, particularly in new energies.   

“Ultimately, our focus is on value as we invest in technology development, AI, and digital solution. The same approach applies to our careful positioning in new energies, ready to scale up when commercially competitive,” he added.  

The Energy Intelligence Forum is an annual event that gathers leaders from energy, politics, finance, and business to address industry challenges and shape the future of global energy.   

This year’s forum focuses on the implications of protectionism and the complexities of navigating the global energy transition. 


SARCO, UAE’s Go Energy partner on ’s green hydrogen push 

SARCO, UAE’s Go Energy partner on ’s green hydrogen push 
Updated 12 October 2025

SARCO, UAE’s Go Energy partner on ’s green hydrogen push 

SARCO, UAE’s Go Energy partner on ’s green hydrogen push 

RIYADH: A green hydrogen and ammonia project is set to take shape in the Kingdom after Refineries Co. signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with UAE-based Go Energy. 

The deal will see the two companies conduct a joint study on the project and design a legal framework to support their collaboration, SARCO said in a statement to Tadawul.  

The MoU is valid for one year unless extended by mutual agreement, the statement added. 

The deal aligns with ’s wider strategy to generate 50 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and to become the world’s largest exporter of green hydrogen, targeting annual production of 1.2 million tonnes by the end of the decade. 

This commitment is part of the broader National Renewable Energy Program strategy, aimed at diversifying ’s energy portfolio and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. 

“SARCO is pleased to announce the signing of a non-binding MoU with the UAE-based GO Energy Company to collaborate on developing the green hydrogen (ammonia) project in ,” the Tadawul-listed firm said.  

SARCO added that the agreement has no immediate financial implications and involves no related parties. The move also reflects the company’s strategy to expand services through specialized energy partnerships. 

Green hydrogen, created through electrolysis powered by renewable energy, is seen as a critical component in reducing global carbon emissions because it produces no greenhouse gases during production. 

With a net-zero emissions target by 2060, is investing heavily in both green and blue hydrogen, with companies like Saudi Aramco and ACWA Power spearheading the energy transition in the Kingdom. 

The Kingdom is also building the world’s largest green hydrogen plant in the futuristic city of NEOM, expected to be operational by December 2026, as confirmed by NEOM Green Hydrogen Co. CEO Wesam Al-Ghamdi in November 2024. 

In July, ACWA Power also signed multiple agreements to export renewable electricity and green hydrogen to Europe, reinforcing the Kingdom’s drive to become a global clean energy hub. 


Arab Energy Organization firms post record $280m profit

Arab Energy Organization firms post record $280m profit
Updated 09 October 2025

Arab Energy Organization firms post record $280m profit

Arab Energy Organization firms post record $280m profit

JEDDAH: Arab energy companies posted record net profits of over $280 million in 2024 — their highest ever — driven by strong business volumes and strategic initiatives, according to the Arab Energy Organization. 

The achievement reflects the resilience of Arab energy firms amid volatile markets and follows efforts to modernize operations and strengthen coordination across member states, said Secretary-General Jamal Al-Loughani during the opening of the organization’s 54th Annual Coordinating Meeting. 

He stressed the importance of providing necessary support to foster growth, enhance prosperity, and achieve their founding objectives, the Kuwait News Agency, or KUNA, reported. 

“Al-Loughani underscored the need to build on previous meetings and their positive outcomes, moving toward a new phase that opens avenues for cooperation among affiliated companies and with national companies of a similar nature and activity in member states,” KUNA reported. 

The official commended the companies’ efforts, describing them as a catalyst for deeper Arab cooperation.  He highlighted their “pivotal and constructive role” in fostering collaboration and creating opportunities to strengthen the petroleum industry across member states, despite challenges arising from regional and global market conditions. 

Al-Loughani also highlighted the “continuous and constructive” communication maintained between the General Secretariat and the affiliated firms through designated liaison officers, KUNA reported. 

During the meeting, representatives of the organization’s affiliated companies reviewed major activities for 2024 and the first half of 2025, including commercial and technical operations, financial results, human resources activities, and training programs.  

They also presented several plans and projects aimed at enhancing performance, adapting to current market fluctuations, and maximizing revenue. 

The meeting was attended by representatives of the Arab Shipbuilding and Repair Yard Co., or ASRY, the Arab Energy Fund, the Arab Petroleum Services Co., the Arab Drilling and Workover Co., and the Arab Well Logging and Well Services Co. 

The Arab Energy Organization, formerly known as the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, was restructured and renamed in December following a Saudi-led proposal to broaden its mandate beyond oil to cover the wider energy sector. 

’s ACWA Power, a major renewable energy firm and one of the region’s key players, reported a 2024 net profit of SR1.75 billion ($466 million), up 5.7 percent year on year, underscoring the Arab energy sector’s gradual shift toward sustainable growth.