Oil Updates – crude regains ground on political uncertainty in US, Mideast

Oil Updates – crude regains ground on political uncertainty in US, Mideast
Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $85.18 a barrel by 7:25 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 15 July 2024

Oil Updates – crude regains ground on political uncertainty in US, Mideast

Oil Updates – crude regains ground on political uncertainty in US, Mideast

SINGAPORE: Oil regained ground on Monday, with political uncertainty in the US and the Middle East supporting prices, offsetting downward pressure from a stronger dollar and weak demand in top importer China, according to Reuters.

Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $85.18 a barrel by 7:25 a.m. Saudi time after settling down 37 cents on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $82.41 a barrel, up 20 cents, or 0.2 percent.

Oil prices shrugged off the impact from the dollar, which firmed after a failed assassination bid on US presidential candidate Donald Trump.

“I don’t think you can ignore the uncertainty that the weekend’s assassination attempt will cast across a deeply divided country in the lead-up to the election,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

In the Middle East, talks on ending the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas halted on Saturday after three days, though a Hamas official said the following day it had not withdrawn from discussions.

However, an Israeli attack targeting the group’s military leader killed 90 people on Saturday.

The uncertainty around the volatile situation has kept the geopolitical premium in oil elevated.

Oil markets are also broadly underpinned by supply cuts from OPEC+ with Iraq’s oil ministry saying it will compensate for any overproduction since the beginning of 2024.

Last week, Brent fell more than 1.7 percent after four weeks of gains while WTI futures slid 1.1 percent as a fall in China’s crude imports, the world’s top importer, countered robust summer consumption in the US.

“While fundamentals are still supportive, there are growing demand concerns, largely emanating from China,” ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said in a note.

China’s crude oil imports fell 2.3 percent in the first half of this year to 11.05 million barrels a day, amid disappointing fuel demand and as independent refiners cut output due to weak profit margins.

Crude throughput at Chinese refineries fell 3.7 percent in June from a year earlier to 14.19 million bpd, the year’s lowest so far, customs data showed on Monday.

China’s economy slowed in the second quarter as a protracted property downturn and job insecurity weighed on domestic demand, keeping alive expectations Beijing will need to unleash more stimulus.

In the US, active oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 478 last week, the lowest since December 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.


Saudi Tourism Development Fund rolls out programs to boost startup growth 

Saudi Tourism Development Fund rolls out programs to boost startup growth 
Updated 6 sec ago

Saudi Tourism Development Fund rolls out programs to boost startup growth 

Saudi Tourism Development Fund rolls out programs to boost startup growth 

RIYADH: Tourism startups and entrepreneurs in stand to benefit from three newly launched support initiatives aimed at accelerating innovation, attracting investment, and strengthening the Kingdom’s growing travel economy. 

The Tourism Development Fund has introduced the Grow Tourism Incubator, Tourism Hackathons and Bootcamps, and the Grow Tourism Accelerator — a suite of initiatives designed to empower early-stage ventures through TDF Grow, its non-financial enablement arm, according to a press release. 

Developing a robust tourism landscape is a key pillar of ’s Vision 2030 agenda, as the Kingdom works to diversify its economy and reduce its reliance on oil revenues. 

The National Tourism Strategy targets 150 million annual visitors by 2030, after surpassing the 100 million milestone ahead of schedule, with official data showing the Kingdom welcomed 116 million tourists in 2024 — exceeding its annual target for the second year in a row. 

Qusai bin Abdullah Al-Fakhri, CEO of TDF, said: “We remain committed to empowering entrepreneurs to transform their ideas into promising, impactful projects. We strive to provide a comprehensive support ecosystem that addresses the needs of businesses at every stage, helping them overcome challenges and accelerate their growth.”  

He added: “These three programs embody our dedication to practical enablement, offering guidance, support, and connections with key stakeholders, to build a sustainable tourism sector full of opportunity and aligned with the aspirations of Saudi Vision 2030.” 

The Grow Tourism Incubator Program, now in its first edition, will target early-stage tourism startups. Registration opened on June 24 and will remain open until July 17. 

The incubator offers a 10-month immersive environment, providing participants with access to shared workspaces, as well as legal, marketing, and logistical support, along with technical and administrative services. 

The program will also include workshops, specialized training sessions, and mentorship by leading industry experts, delivered both virtually and in person at TDF headquarters — ensuring accessibility for entrepreneurs across the Kingdom. 

The Tourism Hackathons and Bootcamps program aims to support innovators and early-stage tourism projects, with a focus on three key regions: Asir, Al-Ahsa, and Madinah. 

Running for five months, the program will allow participants to take part in hackathons followed by training bootcamps, helping them develop their ideas into actionable prototypes. 

Registrations opened on July 1 and will remain open until July 22. 

The Grow Tourism Accelerator builds on the success of previous cohorts, which have graduated 99 participants to date. 

This three-month program is designed to support startups and help them scale within the tourism sector. 

“The accelerator also attracts international companies, enriching the diversity of the investment landscape and elevating service quality across the industry. The program provides integrated mentorship, culminating in graduation and connections with potential investors,” the TDF release stated. 

It added that the TDF Grow platform has supported 8,800 beneficiaries through its non-financial programs and initiatives, helping entrepreneurs and small and medium enterprises accelerate their projects and enhance the competitiveness of ’s tourism sector.


OPEC says no peak to oil demand before 2050

OPEC says no peak to oil demand before 2050
Updated 13 min 15 sec ago

OPEC says no peak to oil demand before 2050

OPEC says no peak to oil demand before 2050
  • OPEC sees oil demand rising by 18.6% to around 123 mbd in 2050
  • It expects demand to grow for longer than other forecasters

PARIS: The OPEC oil cartel said Thursday that demand for crude will continue to expand through at least 2050, calling efforts to rapidly shift away from fossil fuels an unworkable fantasy.

In its latest annual report on the outlook for oil demand, OPEC sees global oil demand rising by 18.6 percent from 103.7 million barrels per day in 2024 to around 123 mbd in 2050.

That rising demand will be “driven by expanding economic growth, rising populations, increasing urbanization, new energy-intensive industries like artificial intelligence, and the need to bring energy to the billions without it,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais in his foreword to the report.

“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” he said.

That forecast puts OPEC, which gathers together a number of the world’s leading oil exporting nations, at odds with the International Energy Agency, whose member states include many oil-consuming nations.

The IEA said last month that it expects global oil demand to begin to decline in 2030, driven by the rise of electric cars and the shift away from crude to produce power.

The IEA even sees oil demand dropping in as it replaces crude with gas and renewable energy to produce power.

Ghais said that OPEC sees growth in oil demand being primarily driven by developing nations, and that fossil fuels still account for around 80 percent of the global fuel mix, little changed from when the cartel was founded in 1960.

.”..it has become increasingly clear to many policymakers in recent years that the narrative of swiftly phasing out oil and gas has been seen for what it is: unworkable, and a fantasy,” he said.

The OPEC chief blasted many timelines to reach net-zero carbon emissions as having “little regard for energy security, affordability or feasibility.”

Experts say a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is necessary if global warming is be kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.


UAE and Azerbaijan sign CEPA to expand trade and investment across key sectors 

UAE and Azerbaijan sign CEPA to expand trade and investment across key sectors 
Updated 31 min 18 sec ago

UAE and Azerbaijan sign CEPA to expand trade and investment across key sectors 

UAE and Azerbaijan sign CEPA to expand trade and investment across key sectors 

RIYADH: The UAE and Azerbaijan have signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement to strengthen bilateral trade, enhance investments, and deepen cooperation in renewable energy, logistics, tourism, and construction. 

The deal is expected to contribute $680 million to the UAE’s gross domestic product and $300 million to Azerbaijan’s economy by 2031, according to the Emirates News Agency, also known as WAM. 

Signed in the presence of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the CEPA aims to enhance private sector collaboration, strengthen supply chain resilience, and promote the global expansion of small and medium-sized enterprises. 

It builds on a growing trade relationship between the two countries, with non-oil trade rising 43 percent year on year to reach $2.4 billion in 2024. 

The UAE is also Azerbaijan’s leading Arab investor, with cumulative investments exceeding $1 billion. 

Speaking after the signing, UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Thani Al-Zeyoudi described Azerbaijan as “a hugely valuable trade and investment partner for the UAE,” citing its strategic location and continued economic growth. 

“Our bilateral non-oil trade mirrors this growth, climbing 36.2 percent last year to reach $2.24 billion, which represents 50 percent of Azerbaijan’s trade with the GCC,” he said, according to WAM. 

Al-Zeyoudi said the CEPA would unlock new opportunities across manufacturing, agriculture, and automotive, as well as logistics and financial services. 

He also noted plans to expand UAE investments in energy and renewables through national companies such as ADNOC and Masdar, with the goal of building a joint logistics infrastructure to enhance access to broader regional and global markets. 

Azerbaijan’s agreement adds to the UAE’s expanding CEPA program, a key pillar of its foreign trade agenda that targets $1.1 trillion in non-oil trade by 2031. 

In 2024, the initiative contributed to a record $816 billion in non-oil trade, representing a 14.6 percent increase over the previous year. 

The UAE has now concluded 27 CEPAs with global markets representing more than one-quarter of the world’s population. 

The deal is part of the country’s broader strategy to advance economic diversification through strategic international partnerships, the WAM statement said.

Kuwait and Jordan strengthen ties

Kuwait and Jordan held the fifth session of their Joint Higher Committee in Kuwait City this week. 

Co-chaired by Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Abdullah Al-Yahya and Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Safadi, the session resulted in six cooperation agreements and an executive program spanning the economic, investment, cultural, and tourism sectors, according to Kuwait News Agency.


Saudi money supply surges to $824bn as savers embrace high-interest deposits

Saudi money supply surges to $824bn as savers embrace high-interest deposits
Updated 10 July 2025

Saudi money supply surges to $824bn as savers embrace high-interest deposits

Saudi money supply surges to $824bn as savers embrace high-interest deposits
  • Time and savings deposits accounted for 35.16%
  • Rate relief expected to continue into 2025

RIYADH: Saudi banks’ money supply M3 reached SR3.09 trillion ($824.3 billion) in May, rising about 9.39 percent from the same period last year. 

According to data by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, time and savings deposits accounted for 35.16 percent of the total, slightly below the 16-year peak of 35.2 percent recorded in March, but still representing the highest share since 2009. 

The expansion has been driven by a marked shift in deposits. Savers are increasingly locking their money into term deposits to take advantage of higher interest rates. 

These interest-bearing accounts have grown at the fastest pace among all money categories, reflecting depositors’ preference for higher returns amid a high-rate environment. Term deposits offer better interest in exchange for keeping funds for a fixed period, and therefore tend to gain popularity when interest rates are elevated. 

Despite this shift, demand deposits — funds in checking accounts that can be withdrawn on demand — remain the single largest component of the money supply, at around SR1.5 trillion, or roughly 48.6 percent of M3. 

That share has edged down from over 49 percent a year ago as more savers move into interest-yielding options. Meanwhile, other quasi-money deposits, such as foreign currency accounts and certain short-term instruments, represent roughly 8 percent or SR250 billion of the total, and physical currency in circulation outside banks adds about SR246 billion, according to SAMA data. 

As the US Federal Reserve embarked on aggressive rate hikes over the past two years to curb inflation, SAMA mirrored those moves to maintain the currency peg. This pushed Saudi interest rates to multi-year highs, peaking around 6 percent late last year. 

With inflation pressures subsequently easing, the US Fed began to loosen policy, implementing rate cuts totaling 100 basis points by the end of 2024. 

The rate relief was expected to continue into 2025. Indeed, by January, signs emerged that the deposit mix was starting to rebalance, as demand deposits began regaining ground once benchmark rates had come off their peak, according to SAMA data. 

Any further rate cuts were abruptly put on hold amid renewed global inflation concerns. Speaking earlier this month at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would probably be in a position to begin cutting rates were it not for the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, according to Bloomberg. 

Central bankers expect Trump’s import tariffs to lift inflation, so they have adopted a cautious “wait-and-see” stance before resuming any rate reductions. 

As a result, the Fed has kept rates steady in recent months, after having trimmed about 100 basis points late last year, with the risk of inflationary pressure from tariffs delaying further easing. 

Given that SAMA typically mirrors Fed decisions to defend the riyal’s dollar peg, this pause in US rate cuts has likewise led the Saudi central bank to hold its rates, keeping domestic borrowing costs elevated. 

Banks, in turn, have been competing for deposits by offering better returns on time accounts, a strategy to shore up liquidity while credit demand stays strong. 

Looking ahead, officials and analysts foresee an eventual turning point in the interest rate cycle. Goldman Sachs, for example, now projects that the Fed will begin cutting rates later in 2025, delivering three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, up from two cuts in its earlier forecast, according to a July article by Bloomberg. 

Until that pivot materializes in interest rates, Saudi banks and their customers are capitalizing on the elevated returns offered by term deposits — a trend that has pushed savings deposits to record highs and fundamentally altered the composition of the Kingdom’s money supply. 


Saudi industrial output rises 1.5% in May on mining, manufacturing gains: GASTAT

Saudi industrial output rises 1.5% in May on mining, manufacturing gains: GASTAT
Updated 10 July 2025

Saudi industrial output rises 1.5% in May on mining, manufacturing gains: GASTAT

Saudi industrial output rises 1.5% in May on mining, manufacturing gains: GASTAT

RIYADH: ’s industrial production expanded 1.5 percent year on year in May, driven by growth in mining, quarrying, and manufacturing activities, official data showed. 

The Industrial Production Index reached 108.8 in May, rising 2.5 percent from April, according to preliminary figures from the General Authority for Statistics. 

The latest IPI figure, reflecting continued growth in the manufacturing sector, underscores ’s progress in its economic diversification efforts aimed at reducing its decades-long reliance on crude revenues. 

In its latest release, GASTAT stated: “Preliminary results indicate a 1.5 percent increase in the Industrial Production Index in May 2025 compared to the same month of the previous year, supported by the rise in mining and quarrying activity, manufacturing activity and water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities.” 

The release further added that the index of oil activities saw an annual rise of 0.5 percent in May, while non-oil activities increased by 3.8 percent. 

In May, another report released by GASTAT revealed that the Kingdom’s gross domestic product grew by 2.7 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by strong non-oil activity. 

Commenting on the GDP figures at the time, Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim, who also chairs GASTAT’s board, noted that the contribution of non-oil activities to the Kingdom’s economic output reached 53.2 percent — an increase of 5.7 percent from previous estimates. 

According to the latest GASTAT report, the sub-index of manufacturing activities increased by 0.9 percent year on year in May. 

This growth was driven by an increase in the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, which rose by 14 percent, and the manufacture of food products, which increased by 3.2 percent. 

GASTAT added that the sub-index of mining and quarrying activity rose by 2.1 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. 

“ increased its oil production to 9.18 million barrels per day in May 2025 compared to 8.99 million barrels per day in May 2024,” added GASTAT. 

The report further noted that electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply activity recorded an annual decrease of 7.7 percent in May, while water supply, sewerage, and waste management and remediation operations rose by 15.5 percent during the same period. 

On a monthly basis, manufacturing activity in increased by 2.3 percent, supported by growth in the production of coke and refined petroleum products, which rose by 1.9 percent. 

Compared to April, mining and quarrying activities in also increased by 2 percent in May. 

Overall, oil activities rose by 2 percent in May compared to the previous month, while non-oil activities increased by 3.9 percent during the same period.