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OPEC says no peak to oil demand before 2050

OPEC says no peak to oil demand before 2050
A view of the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria. File/ReutersA view of the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries outside their headquarters in Vienna, Austria. File/Reuters
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OPEC says no peak to oil demand before 2050

OPEC says no peak to oil demand before 2050
  • OPEC sees oil demand rising by 18.6% to around 123 mbd in 2050
  • It expects demand to grow for longer than other forecasters

PARIS: The OPEC oil cartel said Thursday that demand for crude will continue to expand through at least 2050, calling efforts to rapidly shift away from fossil fuels an unworkable fantasy.

In its latest annual report on the outlook for oil demand, OPEC sees global oil demand rising by 18.6 percent from 103.7 million barrels per day in 2024 to around 123 mbd in 2050.

That rising demand will be “driven by expanding economic growth, rising populations, increasing urbanization, new energy-intensive industries like artificial intelligence, and the need to bring energy to the billions without it,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais in his foreword to the report.

“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” he said.

That forecast puts OPEC, which gathers together a number of the world’s leading oil exporting nations, at odds with the International Energy Agency, whose member states include many oil-consuming nations.

The IEA said last month that it expects global oil demand to begin to decline in 2030, driven by the rise of electric cars and the shift away from crude to produce power.

The IEA even sees oil demand dropping in şÚÁĎÉçÇř as it replaces crude with gas and renewable energy to produce power.

Ghais said that OPEC sees growth in oil demand being primarily driven by developing nations, and that fossil fuels still account for around 80 percent of the global fuel mix, little changed from when the cartel was founded in 1960.

.”..it has become increasingly clear to many policymakers in recent years that the narrative of swiftly phasing out oil and gas has been seen for what it is: unworkable, and a fantasy,” he said.

The OPEC chief blasted many timelines to reach net-zero carbon emissions as having “little regard for energy security, affordability or feasibility.”

Experts say a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is necessary if global warming is be kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.


UAE and Azerbaijan sign CEPA to expand trade and investment across key sectors 

UAE and Azerbaijan sign CEPA to expand trade and investment across key sectors 
Updated 4 sec ago

UAE and Azerbaijan sign CEPA to expand trade and investment across key sectors 

UAE and Azerbaijan sign CEPA to expand trade and investment across key sectors 

RIYADH: The UAE and Azerbaijan have signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement to strengthen bilateral trade, enhance investments, and deepen cooperation in renewable energy, logistics, tourism, and construction. 

The deal is expected to contribute $680 million to the UAE’s gross domestic product and $300 million to Azerbaijan’s economy by 2031, according to the Emirates News Agency, also known as WAM. 

Signed in the presence of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the CEPA aims to enhance private sector collaboration, strengthen supply chain resilience, and promote the global expansion of small and medium-sized enterprises. 

It builds on a growing trade relationship between the two countries, with non-oil trade rising 43 percent year on year to reach $2.4 billion in 2024. 

The UAE is also Azerbaijan’s leading Arab investor, with cumulative investments exceeding $1 billion. 

Speaking after the signing, UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Thani Al-Zeyoudi described Azerbaijan as “a hugely valuable trade and investment partner for the UAE,” citing its strategic location and continued economic growth. 

“Our bilateral non-oil trade mirrors this growth, climbing 36.2 percent last year to reach $2.24 billion, which represents 50 percent of Azerbaijan’s trade with the GCC,” he said, according to WAM. 

Al-Zeyoudi said the CEPA would unlock new opportunities across manufacturing, agriculture, and automotive, as well as logistics and financial services. 

He also noted plans to expand UAE investments in energy and renewables through national companies such as ADNOC and Masdar, with the goal of building a joint logistics infrastructure to enhance access to broader regional and global markets. 

Azerbaijan’s agreement adds to the UAE’s expanding CEPA program, a key pillar of its foreign trade agenda that targets $1.1 trillion in non-oil trade by 2031. 

In 2024, the initiative contributed to a record $816 billion in non-oil trade, representing a 14.6 percent increase over the previous year. 

The UAE has now concluded 27 CEPAs with global markets representing more than one-quarter of the world’s population. 

The deal is part of the country’s broader strategy to advance economic diversification through strategic international partnerships, the WAM statement said.

Kuwait and Jordan strengthen ties

Kuwait and Jordan held the fifth session of their Joint Higher Committee in Kuwait City this week. 

Co-chaired by Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Abdullah Al-Yahya and Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Safadi, the session resulted in six cooperation agreements and an executive program spanning the economic, investment, cultural, and tourism sectors, according to Kuwait News Agency.


Saudi money supply surges to $824bn as savers embrace high-interest deposits

Saudi money supply surges to $824bn as savers embrace high-interest deposits
Updated 30 min 34 sec ago

Saudi money supply surges to $824bn as savers embrace high-interest deposits

Saudi money supply surges to $824bn as savers embrace high-interest deposits
  • Time and savings deposits accounted for 35.16%
  • Rate relief expected to continue into 2025

RIYADH: Saudi banks’ money supply M3 reached SR3.09 trillion ($824.3 billion) in May, rising about 9.39 percent from the same period last year. 

According to data by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, time and savings deposits accounted for 35.16 percent of the total, slightly below the 16-year peak of 35.2 percent recorded in March, but still representing the highest share since 2009. 

The expansion has been driven by a marked shift in deposits. Savers are increasingly locking their money into term deposits to take advantage of higher interest rates. 

These interest-bearing accounts have grown at the fastest pace among all money categories, reflecting depositors’ preference for higher returns amid a high-rate environment. Term deposits offer better interest in exchange for keeping funds for a fixed period, and therefore tend to gain popularity when interest rates are elevated. 

Despite this shift, demand deposits — funds in checking accounts that can be withdrawn on demand — remain the single largest component of the money supply, at around SR1.5 trillion, or roughly 48.6 percent of M3. 

That share has edged down from over 49 percent a year ago as more savers move into interest-yielding options. Meanwhile, other quasi-money deposits, such as foreign currency accounts and certain short-term instruments, represent roughly 8 percent or SR250 billion of the total, and physical currency in circulation outside banks adds about SR246 billion, according to SAMA data. 

As the US Federal Reserve embarked on aggressive rate hikes over the past two years to curb inflation, SAMA mirrored those moves to maintain the currency peg. This pushed Saudi interest rates to multi-year highs, peaking around 6 percent late last year. 

With inflation pressures subsequently easing, the US Fed began to loosen policy, implementing rate cuts totaling 100 basis points by the end of 2024. 

The rate relief was expected to continue into 2025. Indeed, by January, signs emerged that the deposit mix was starting to rebalance, as demand deposits began regaining ground once benchmark rates had come off their peak, according to SAMA data. 

Any further rate cuts were abruptly put on hold amid renewed global inflation concerns. Speaking earlier this month at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would probably be in a position to begin cutting rates were it not for the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, according to Bloomberg. 

Central bankers expect Trump’s import tariffs to lift inflation, so they have adopted a cautious “wait-and-see” stance before resuming any rate reductions. 

As a result, the Fed has kept rates steady in recent months, after having trimmed about 100 basis points late last year, with the risk of inflationary pressure from tariffs delaying further easing. 

Given that SAMA typically mirrors Fed decisions to defend the riyal’s dollar peg, this pause in US rate cuts has likewise led the Saudi central bank to hold its rates, keeping domestic borrowing costs elevated. 

Banks, in turn, have been competing for deposits by offering better returns on time accounts, a strategy to shore up liquidity while credit demand stays strong. 

Looking ahead, officials and analysts foresee an eventual turning point in the interest rate cycle. Goldman Sachs, for example, now projects that the Fed will begin cutting rates later in 2025, delivering three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, up from two cuts in its earlier forecast, according to a July article by Bloomberg. 

Until that pivot materializes in interest rates, Saudi banks and their customers are capitalizing on the elevated returns offered by term deposits — a trend that has pushed savings deposits to record highs and fundamentally altered the composition of the Kingdom’s money supply. 


Saudi industrial output rises 1.5% in May on mining, manufacturing gains: GASTAT

Saudi industrial output rises 1.5% in May on mining, manufacturing gains: GASTAT
Updated 10 July 2025

Saudi industrial output rises 1.5% in May on mining, manufacturing gains: GASTAT

Saudi industrial output rises 1.5% in May on mining, manufacturing gains: GASTAT

RIYADH: şÚÁĎÉçÇř’s industrial production expanded 1.5 percent year on year in May, driven by growth in mining, quarrying, and manufacturing activities, official data showed. 

The Industrial Production Index reached 108.8 in May, rising 2.5 percent from April, according to preliminary figures from the General Authority for Statistics. 

The latest IPI figure, reflecting continued growth in the manufacturing sector, underscores şÚÁĎÉçÇř’s progress in its economic diversification efforts aimed at reducing its decades-long reliance on crude revenues. 

In its latest release, GASTAT stated: “Preliminary results indicate a 1.5 percent increase in the Industrial Production Index in May 2025 compared to the same month of the previous year, supported by the rise in mining and quarrying activity, manufacturing activity and water supply, sewerage and waste management and remediation activities.” 

The release further added that the index of oil activities saw an annual rise of 0.5 percent in May, while non-oil activities increased by 3.8 percent. 

In May, another report released by GASTAT revealed that the Kingdom’s gross domestic product grew by 2.7 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by strong non-oil activity. 

Commenting on the GDP figures at the time, Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim, who also chairs GASTAT’s board, noted that the contribution of non-oil activities to the Kingdom’s economic output reached 53.2 percent — an increase of 5.7 percent from previous estimates. 

According to the latest GASTAT report, the sub-index of manufacturing activities increased by 0.9 percent year on year in May. 

This growth was driven by an increase in the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, which rose by 14 percent, and the manufacture of food products, which increased by 3.2 percent. 

GASTAT added that the sub-index of mining and quarrying activity rose by 2.1 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. 

“şÚÁĎÉçÇř increased its oil production to 9.18 million barrels per day in May 2025 compared to 8.99 million barrels per day in May 2024,” added GASTAT. 

The report further noted that electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply activity recorded an annual decrease of 7.7 percent in May, while water supply, sewerage, and waste management and remediation operations rose by 15.5 percent during the same period. 

On a monthly basis, manufacturing activity in şÚÁĎÉçÇř increased by 2.3 percent, supported by growth in the production of coke and refined petroleum products, which rose by 1.9 percent. 

Compared to April, mining and quarrying activities in şÚÁĎÉçÇř also increased by 2 percent in May. 

Overall, oil activities rose by 2 percent in May compared to the previous month, while non-oil activities increased by 3.9 percent during the same period. 


Oil Updates — prices steady amid bearish Trump tariff outlook, weaker US dollar

Oil Updates — prices steady amid bearish Trump tariff outlook, weaker US dollar
Updated 10 July 2025

Oil Updates — prices steady amid bearish Trump tariff outlook, weaker US dollar

Oil Updates — prices steady amid bearish Trump tariff outlook, weaker US dollar
  • Threat of 50% tariffs on Brazil, copper cloud growth outlook
  • Weaker US dollar, US gasoline demand growth provide support
  • OPEC+ actual output unlikely to rise much, even with quota increases — analysts

SINGAPORE: Oil prices were steady on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on global economic growth, while a weaker dollar and signs of strong US gasoline demand underpinned prices.

Brent crude futures were up 4 cents at $70.23 a barrel by 8:00 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1 cent to $68.37 a barrel.

On the demand side, macro uncertainty has led to a more cautious buying environment, particularly in Asia, said analytics firm Kpler in a note, while adding that geopolitical risk premiums have faded with the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding.

On Wednesday, Trump threatened Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, with a punitive 50 percent tariff on exports to the US, after a public spat with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

He has also announced plans for tariffs on copper, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, and his administration sent tariff letters to the Philippines, Iraq and others, adding to over a dozen letters issued earlier in the week, including for powerhouse US suppliers South Korea and Japan.

As policymakers remain worried about the inflationary pressures from Trump’s tariffs, only “a couple” of officials at the Federal Reserve’s June 17-18 meeting said they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, the minutes released on Wednesday showed.

Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce demand for oil.

Supporting oil prices, however, is a weaker US dollar in today’s Asia trading session, said OANDA senior analyst Kelvin Wong. A weaker dollar lifts oil prices by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Also supporting prices, US crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Gasoline demand rose 6 percent to 9.2 million barrels per day last week, the EIA said.

Global daily flights were averaging 107,600 in the first eight days of July, an all-time high, with flights in China reaching a five-month peak and port and freight activities indicating “sustained expansion” in trade activities from last year, JP Morgan said in a client note.

“Year to date, global oil demand growth is averaging 0.97 million barrels per day, in line with our forecast of 1 million barrels per day,” the note said.

Additionally, there is doubt the recent increase in production quotas announced by OPEC+ will result in an actual increase in production, as some members are already exceeding their quotas, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

“And others, like Russia, are unable to meet their targets due to damaged oil infrastructure,” he said.

OPEC+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September, as they complete both the unwinding of voluntary production cuts by eight members, and the UAE’s move to a larger quota.


CMA approves new rules to spur Saudi investment fund sector

CMA approves new rules to spur Saudi investment fund sector
Updated 09 July 2025

CMA approves new rules to spur Saudi investment fund sector

CMA approves new rules to spur Saudi investment fund sector

RIYADH: şÚÁĎÉçÇř’s Capital Market Authority has announced a package of regulatory enhancements aimed at strengthening the investment fund environment in the Kingdom, according to a press release issued on Wednesday.

The reforms, which involve amendments to the Investment Funds Regulations, Real Estate Investment Funds Regulations, and the glossary of terms used across CMA regulations, are designed to advance the regulatory framework governing investment funds.

The goal is to elevate the competitiveness of the asset management industry by identifying development opportunities, adopting international best practices, and enhancing transparency and governance.

The reforms reflect şÚÁĎÉçÇř’s broader efforts to deepen its capital markets and attract more local and international investment, in line with Vision 2030 economic diversification goals.

According to a CMA board decision, the updated rules will help expand and develop the investment fund and REIT sectors, increase transparency for unitholders, and improve investor protection through more robust governance standards.

Key reforms

One of the major changes includes broadening the categories of entities allowed to distribute investment fund units. Under the new rules, fund units may now be distributed via licensed investment platforms and e-money institutions approved by the Saudi Central Bank, including through their websites and mobile apps.

Additional reforms cover the procedures for fund termination and the removal of fund managers, as well as new guidelines for voluntary withdrawal by managers of both public and private funds.

A key requirement is obtaining CMA approval for such withdrawals, and ensuring that the outgoing fund manager transfers all management responsibilities to a successor within 60 days. This is aimed at safeguarding investor rights and ensuring a smooth transition process.

REIT flexibility in parallel market

In a move to expand investment opportunities and increase potential returns for investors, the CMA will now allow traded real estate investment funds listed on the parallel market to invest in real estate development projects at the time of fund establishment.

These investments will not be bound by the standard asset allocation ratios and restrictions previously outlined in the Real Estate Investment Funds Regulations.