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HALVALA: A ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely before the spring and European allies need to keep up support despite a corruption scandal which has engulfed Kyiv, President Alexander Stubb of Finland told The Associated Press.
Europe, meanwhile will require ‘’sisu’’ – a Finnish word meaning endurance, resilience and grit — to get through the winter months, he said, as Russia continues its hybrid attacks and information war across the continent.
Stubb also needs that quality as one of the key European interlocutors between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. As the leader of one of Europe’s smaller countries, but one that shares a 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) border with Russia, he is well aware of what’s at stake.
In the 1940s, after two wars with Russia, Finland lost about 10 percent of its territory to Moscow and agreed to become militarily neutral, a stance only reversed after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when the Finns joined NATO. Stubb leverages his good relationship with Trump — the two men have played golf together and speak regularly — to argue the case for Ukraine.
“I can explain to President Trump what Finland went through or how I see the situation on the battlefield, or how do you deal with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin? And then, you know, if he accepts one out of 10 ideas, that’s good,” he said.
Stubb spoke to AP Saturday at a military base north of the capital Helsinki where he observed Finnish volunteers take part in defense training. Wearing a jacket with the word “sisu” emblazoned across the back, he watched as volunteers practiced evacuating wounded soldiers from a conflict zone in freezing temperatures.
Stubb told AP that Zelensky must deal quickly with allegations of kickbacks and embezzlement, saying the scandal plays into the hands of Russia. Nonetheless, he urged European leaders to look at boosting financial and military support for Kyiv which is also facing creeping gains by Russia on the battlefield.
“I’m not very optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or the beginning of peace negotiations, at least this year,” Stubb said, adding it would be good to “get something going” by March.
The three big questions on the road to a ceasefire are security guarantees for Ukraine, rebuilding its economy and coming to some sort of understanding about territorial claims, he said.
To bring peace to Ukraine, Stubb said, Trump and European leaders need to maximize pressure on Russia and on Putin in order to change his strategic thinking. Putin “basically wants to deny the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” aims that have not altered since the war began nearly four years ago, Stubb said.
To do this, he suggested using tools such as the hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets held in Europe as collateral to fund Ukraine, as well as increasing military pressure on Moscow.
Stubb praised Trump for sanctioning the major Russian energy companies Lukoil and Rosneft in October, saying he did “an excellent job,” but argued more must be done to give Ukraine the capacity to hit Russia’s “military or defense industry.”
Last month Trump denied a Ukrainian request for long-range Tomahawk missiles which would theoretically allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia – although Kyiv does not currently have any launchers or platforms from which to fire them.
Ukraine is still negotiating with the US for more firepower, Stubb indicated.
Trump’s swings on Ukraine
In mid-October the White House announced Trump would meet Putin in Budapest before abruptly canceling the meeting less than a week later.
The decision came after a call between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov where Rubio probably realized that “the Russians haven’t moved an inch,” Stubb said, and there was “no point in taking President Trump into a situation whereby he doesn’t get a deal or anything.”
The cancelation was “another example of a strategic mistake by the Russians. They had an opportunity and they blew it,” Stubb said.
Trump has swung back and forth between seeking rapprochement with Putin and applying pressure to him, and has done the same with Zelensky. Stubb said he deals with any shifts by being “quite patient” and living with “reality.”
“You can’t have illusions about things that you would like to see happening,” the Finnish president said. “I’ve tried personally to focus on things such as: We need security guarantees for Ukraine. How to build those? We need a ceasefire. How can we get that?
“It’s been a bit of a grind. I guess you need ‘sisu’ in these types of negotiations as well.”
But, he said, the work is paying off and the military options for guaranteeing Ukraine’s security once a ceasefire or peace negotiation is reached are now “clear,” with various countries having committed resources — although he declined to give more details, citing confidential military planning.
Despite some of Ukraine’s missteps, Stubb is unstinting in his praise for Zelensky. “I admire a lot of the things that he’s doing because to lead a country in a war ... is existential. You learn a lot from other human beings in that situation,” he said.
Stubb has Trump’s ear
When it comes to dealing with Donald Trump, Stubb is in a better position than many European leaders. In his youth, he studied in the United States on a golf scholarship, and in March the two spent about seven hours playing a round at Mar-a-Lago.
Golf was a “door-opener,” and helped him create a bond with the US president, he suggested. While Trump and Zelensky have a notoriously tempestuous relationship, Stubb said he and other European leaders can help act as a bridge between them.
“We interpret President Trump to President Zelensky and vice versa,” he said.
But when it comes to Putin, only one person should negotiate directly and publicly with him and that’s Trump, Stubb indicated, suggesting the European Union is unlikely to open a direct channel of communication with the Russian leader any time soon.
Russian attacks in Europe
At the same time Trump is leading negotiations with Putin, multiple European countries have faced incursions from Russian drones — suspected or confirmed — as well as fighter jets and an alleged widespread Russian sabotage campaign.
Russia is not only conducting a kinetic war in Ukraine but also a hybrid war in Europe, Stubb told AP.
“The line between war and peace has been blurred,” Stubb said
Russia, he said, is trying to destabilize Europe and “cause havoc and panic,” with attacks including arson, vandalism and propaganda.
The way to deal with those threats is to “be Finnish,” Stubb said.
“In other words, be cool, calm, collected and have a little bit of that ‘sisu.’”