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The COP30 climate summit, which will open in Belem, Brazil, next week, arrives at a crucial time when it comes to climate change and international climate governance.

Unfortunately, the world is still struggling to meet the goals established by the Paris Agreement. One of the issues is that, despite global awareness of climate change and substantial policy frameworks and progress, the gap between pledges and implementation continues to widen. As a result, this summit can be viewed as a test of whether the global community can translate long-standing commitments into tangible progress and results.

The location of Belem, deep in the Amazon basin, points to the importance of protecting biodiversity and forests while addressing global climate imperatives. By hosting the summit in one of the world’s most ecologically significant regions, Brazil is stressing the fact that climate action is inseparable from ecological preservation, as well as the protection of the livelihoods of indigenous and local communities.

The key problems the world is facing are that temperatures continue to rise, extreme weather events are intensifying and vulnerable populations are bearing the brunt of consequences they contributed little to creating. Within this context, COP30 should not be just a ceremonial declaration — it is an opportunity to demonstrate that the international climate regime can still operate effectively.

In the months leading up to the annual UN climate conference, a series of developments has shaped expectations and set the framework for the negotiations. The mid-year Bonn climate talks in June clarified procedural questions but left many substantive issues unresolved, particularly regarding the phase-out of fossil fuels and reductions in methane emissions. This suggests that COP30 might be more about operationalizing in order to achieve meaningful results.

Concurrently, regional mobilization across Latin America has added a sense of urgency to the proceedings. A ministerial meeting in Mexico City in August introduced a 19-point declaration that emphasized just finance mechanisms, the rights of small island developing states and the inclusion of indigenous communities in climate governance. Such regional initiatives reinforce the need for COP30 to address the concerns of the Global South substantively rather than symbolically.

In addition, Brazil itself has positioned the forest and biodiversity agenda at the heart of COP30, advocating for a path that integrates forest protection with a planned and just transition away from fossil fuels. These developments make COP30 a summit with exceptionally high stakes in terms of credibility, equity and global trust.

There are three interlinked pillars that are central to the negotiations at COP30: climate finance, a just transition and the protection of vulnerable countries.

Climate finance is likely the most critical test of the international system’s capacity to deliver on its promises. Despite the Paris Agreement’s landmark pledge that developed nations would mobilize $100 billion annually for developing countries, they have consistently fallen short.

But beyond the quantity of funds, the nature of climate finance also remains contentious, meaning that developing countries advocate for grants and concessional finance that are transparent and do not create debt, while developed nations stress on leveraging private finance and market-based mechanisms. In addition, nature-based solutions, particularly forest protection, continue to receive a disproportionately small share of global climate finance despite their significance and centrality to emission reductions and ecosystem preservation.

The second issue is the concept of a just transition that complements the finance agenda by linking decarbonization to social equity. A just transition means moving economies away from fossil-fuel dependence while protecting workers, livelihoods and communities that rely heavily on carbon-intensive industries. Without such a transition, social inequalities can deepen, potentially leading to a political backlash. At COP30, debates should ensure that nature-based restoration is accessible and sufficient to replace lost economic activity.

Fossil fuel-producing developing nations face particular challenges, such as lost revenue and limited capacity to diversify their economies. The negotiation of a just transition agenda thus requires careful attention to this matter. To achieve a credible just transition, we should not only focus on environmental policies, but also the economic, social and political strategies needed to ensure that the costs and benefits are shared fairly.

COP30 is an opportunity to demonstrate that the international climate regime can still operate effectively.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Protecting the most vulnerable countries is the third vital pillar of COP30. Many of the countries most exposed to climate change, including small island states, least developed countries and forest-dependent indigenous communities, have contributed minimally to global emissions yet bear disproportionate costs. As a result, loss and damage mechanisms to provide long-term financial support are essential to enable these nations to respond effectively to the impacts of climate change.

Finally, to move beyond rhetoric and deliver tangible and meaningful outcomes, COP30 must focus on practical solutions and imperatives. Climate finance must minimize debt and maximize accessibility. Just transition policies ought to ensure that workers and communities are supported throughout the transition process. And mechanisms supporting vulnerable nations and communities must prioritize inclusivity.

In a nutshell, COP30 represents a decisive moment in the global effort to address climate change. The summit’s success will be measured not by the number of promises and pledges made but by their implementation. The three key pillars are climate finance, a just transition and the protection of vulnerable countries, which are deeply interdependent. Failure in any of these three areas runs the risk of undermining progress across the others.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh