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Over the past two years of Israeli genocide in Gaza, China has played a minimal role. The superpower controlling events has been the US. One might wonder why Beijing has played an almost nonexistent role. However, this might not necessarily be the case going forward, as it is in China’s interest to get involved.

For China, the areas that are of prime importance to its national security are the South China Sea and the US as a competing superpower. Hence, the Middle East is not of prime importance. Another issue is China’s capabilities. Despite strong trade relations, it is very weak in terms of both soft power and hard power when it comes to the Middle East. In terms of hard power, unlike the US, which has bases scattered over the region, China has nothing except for a small base in the Horn of Africa. Even this base is next to American and Japanese bases.

In terms of soft power, Chinese outreach cannot be compared to America’s. The US has been engaged in the region for a very long time, building schools, universities, hospitals, etc. It has engagement with civil society through nonprofit organizations. American pop culture has access to the Arab youth. Content from Hollywood is on major screens in the region. Chinese culture, meanwhile, remains alien to the region.

Not only does China have little in the way of soft power in the region, but its knowledge of the Arab world is also limited. Israel has put great effort into reaching out to the Chinese but the Arabs have done little. Tel Aviv runs a scholarship program for Chinese students to study in Israel. Several Chinese universities offer Israeli studies programs, most notably the Diane and Guilford Glazer Institute for Jewish and Israel Studies at Nanjing University.

This lack of knowledge has affected China’s ability to engage with and influence events as they unfold. Even when it has tried to reach out and have a role, it could not follow through. China tried to reconcile the Palestine Liberation Organization and Hamas in July 2024. However, this was unsuccessful as it knew very little about the parties, the dynamics of their relations or the internal dynamics within each faction. This is why, despite the effort to mediate, the Chinese role remained minimal.

On the other hand, China brokered an agreement between �������� and Iran in 2023 for the two countries to resume diplomatic relations. So far, the deal has held. The ongoing Israeli expansionism has encouraged both parties to maintain it. Beijing has an interest in stable relations between Riyadh and Tehran because they are major sources of energy. This success could be the starting point for a larger Chinese role.

Not only does China have little in the way of soft power in the region, but its knowledge of the Arab world is also limited

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Political and military involvement usually follows economic interests. The US started showing interest in the Arab Gulf after the discovery of oil there. Political engagement is necessary to protect economic interests. Hence, China might be enticed to flex its muscle in the region. But the Chinese do not want to get into a confrontation with the US. The Cold War and series of proxy wars between the US and the Soviet Union, along with the arms race, led to the latter’s bankruptcy and demise.

Palestine could be an area where China can show its prowess to the Americans, engage with states in the region and contribute to a solution without reaching the level of the Cold War.

Israel has repeatedly breached the ceasefire. The problem is that the US keeps giving the Israelis the benefit of the doubt. It initiates a round of carnage and then goes back to a partial ceasefire. However, it is obvious that if Israel continues in this mode, there will be no phase two of the Trump peace plan, meaning there will be no peace, no reconstruction, no stability and definitely no political solution.

Here, China can step in. A month ago, Beijing condemned the US’ misuse of its UN Security Council veto to shield Israel’s crimes. It can take the issue one step further. It can recall the proposal of the Colombian president at September’s UN General Assembly and implement the “Uniting for Peace” resolution. UNGA Resolution 377, which was introduced in 1950, allows the UNSC to be bypassed. It also allows for the use of force to preserve peace. This was the case with the stabilization force deployed in Sinai during the Suez Crisis, despite vetoes by the French and British. However, it is important to note that the resolution has only been effective, as in 1956, when supported by a superpower. Otherwise, the use of the resolution has been symbolic.

But China can state that, if Israel does not comply with the peace plan and respect the ceasefire, it will support using Uniting for Peace to send an army to Palestine. This would not be about going into conflict with the US, but it would send Washington a message that China cannot be discounted. The other message would be that, if the US is not firm enough to restore stability in the region, then China can intervene.

This might be tacitly accepted by Donald Trump and the West. The American president has been trying to twist Benjamin Netanyahu’s arm in order to have some regional arrangement, but he has been confronted by a still-powerful pro-Israel lobby.

Additionally, such a Chinese move would create goodwill and boost the image of China within the Arab street. The hurdles Israel is creating to prevent the establishment of peace and stability in the region could offer an opportunity for China. If properly played, this would pave the way for a new Chinese role in the region and create some substantial soft power both in the Middle East and beyond.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.