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Has Donald Trump’s sharp rebuke of Israel in his Time magazine interview last week fundamentally changed the calculus in the Middle East? His comments immediately sparked two opposing views: for some, his position represents the clear demarcation of a genuine shift in US foreign policy; for others, it is nothing more than a political ploy designed to claw back credibility lost by the US during two years of Israeli genocide in Gaza.

Regarding the end of the Gaza genocide, Trump claimed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “had to stop because the world was going to stop him.” He added: “You know, I could see what was happening ... Israel was becoming very unpopular.” With these words, Trump signaled his view that the systematic extermination of Palestinians in Gaza had pushed Israel to an inevitable point of isolation that even the US could no longer indefinitely hold back.

This is the crux of his message, repeated in his stark warning to Netanyahu: “Bibi, you can’t fight the world ... The world’s against you. And Israel is a very small place compared to the world.” This may appear to be an obvious fact, yet considering the history of the US’ — and, by extension, the West’s — blind support, Israel has always felt much larger than its own size. Indeed, Israel’s perceived power has historically been defined by the unconditional backing of the US.

But, according to Trump’s claim, the US no longer perceives itself as the unconditional vanguard for Israel. He points to a new global power dynamic, noting, “there are a lot of powers out there, OK, powers outside of the region,” whose influence has made Washington’s traditional protective role unsustainable. This realization is most evident when Trump addresses Israel’s desire to illegally annex the West Bank. He is now ready to take action, using unprecedented language: The annexation “won’t happen because I gave my word to the Arab countries.” He insisted: “Israel would lose all of its support from the United States if that happened.”

Such a phrase is unprecedented in the history of US-Israeli relations. Yet, this defiance could easily be dismissed as Trumpian showmanship — bold statements that rarely translate into coherent policy. During his second term, Trump called for an end to the war but did little to stop it, expressing sympathy toward Gazans while still supplying Israel with weapons. His contradictions make it difficult to distinguish conviction from performance.

The significance of Trump’s unprecedented warning is amplified by the timing. The Time interview was made available on the same day that the Knesset advanced two bills that would apply Israeli law to the West Bank, paving the way for the full, illegal annexation of this occupied territory. These provocative votes occurred while US Vice President J.D. Vance was still in Tel Aviv. On his way out of the country, Vance launched a virulent attack on the Israeli government, describing the vote as “weird” and “a very stupid political stunt,” one which he took as an “insult.”

According to Trump’s claim, the US no longer perceives itself as the unconditional vanguard for Israel

Dr. Ramzy Baroud

Those cautious of any supposed US shift are justified in their cynicism. There is little evidence that Washington is changing course. Its unconditional support throughout the genocide is irrefutable proof of its commitment to Israel. The long trajectory of US backing, from before Israel’s founding until today, strongly suggests that a sudden pivot is highly unlikely. So, if this is not a fundamental shift, what is happening?

Though the “unbreakable bond” remains, the balance of power has shifted. Israel has alternated between being the privileged client state and, through its lobby, the driver of the regional agenda. The war exposed Israel’s weaknesses and restored the old dynamic — the US as savior, dictating priorities. Beyond the annual $3.8 billion in military aid, Washington approved an additional $26 billion to sustain Israel’s economy and wars. When Israel failed to meet its military goals in Gaza, the US intervened with its latest deal, producing a shaky ceasefire that lets Israel pursue its objectives by other means.

The result is a reversal of roles: Trump became more popular in Israel than Netanyahu, resurrecting the image of the US as the decisive power. The apparent clash between the two countries is less about values than about control — who steers Israel’s ship, Tel Aviv or Washington. The strong American rhetoric suggests awareness of its renewed leverage, but leverage alone is not policy.

This remains far from a genuine change of course. The US insists on managing the so-called Israeli-Palestinian conflict through its own political priorities, which are fundamentally aligned with Israel’s. By ignoring international law — the only source of balance and objectivity — Washington ensures that the roadmap to the region’s future, despite occasional disagreements, remains entirely in US-Israeli hands.

Such policies will fail to bring peace or justice and will inevitably reignite the same cycle of Israeli violence. While the bombing has temporarily slowed in Gaza, violence is already surging in the West Bank.

A just and lasting peace cannot be produced on the whims of US administrations, through endless wars or through noncommittal statements saying annexation will not occur. True peace requires genuine accountability, sustained international pressure, sanctions and the rigorous enforcement of international law. Only by continuing to fight Netanyahu — and the self-destructive policies he represents — can the world avert a new genocide and allow a just peace to finally be achieved.

• Dr. Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and the editor of The Palestine Chronicle. His latest book, “Before the Flood,” will be published by Seven Stories Press. His website is www.ramzybaroud.net. X: @RamzyBarouda