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The year 2024 was the warmest ever recorded. Global average temperatures reached 15.10°C, about 1.60°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. 

It was the first time the world spent an entire year above 1.5°C, a threshold that will shape climate politics for years to come. This record marks not only a milestone in global warming but also a turning point where cleaner air is revealing the true intensity of trapped heat that had long been masked by pollution.

Hidden in this milestone lies a paradox. Human-made aerosols, including particles from shipping, agriculture, and dust, have been shading the planet. They scatter sunlight and brighten clouds, masking around 0.4 to 0.5°C of warming. Without them, the world would already be hotter. These short-lived particles act like temporary mirrors, cooling the surface by reflecting sunlight. As they decline rapidly, the Earth is losing one of its few natural buffers against rising heat.

As countries act to clean the air, health improves immediately. Yet with fewer reflective particles in the atmosphere, more sunlight reaches the surface. This exposes the greenhouse heat that has long been concealed, leading to faster near-term warming if greenhouse gases are not cut at the same time. Global models now suggest that without parallel methane and carbon dioxide minimization, the removal of aerosols could accelerate surface warming by several years, underscoring the need for integrated air and climate policy.

Shipping provides a clear example. Since 2020, international rules have reduced the sulfur content in marine fuels, leading to roughly a 77–80 percent drop in SOx emissions from shipping. This has improved coastal air quality but also reduced aerosol cooling. Model results from 2024 estimate that the IMO2020 regulation could increase global average surface temperature by about 0.04-0.05°C over 2020-29, equivalent to advancing warming by two to three years under current emissions trends. This shift shows how quickly the climate responds once aerosol cooling is removed, an early signal of the energy balance changes now unfolding worldwide.

The consequences go beyond averages. New research in 2025 shows that declining aerosols are already intensifying heatwaves in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Duration and severity are rising faster than greenhouse gases alone would predict. In the Gulf region, reduced atmospheric haze has allowed stronger solar penetration, adding measurable heat to urban microclimates and coastal waters during summer peaks.

At the same time, the health case for cleaner skies is overwhelming. According to the State of Global Air 2024 report, air pollution caused an estimated 8.1 million deaths in 2021, including more than 700,000 children under five. Achieving cleaner air offers one of the fastest ways to save lives and build healthier, more resilient communities. This trade-off, immediate health gains versus short-term warming, is now a defining test of sustainable governance, where timing and coordination determine success.

This urgency resonates with the International Day of Climate Action 2025 on Oct. 24, a moment that mobilizes communities worldwide to demand ambitious climate and socio-economic policies, reducing emissions fairly while embedding sustainable practices. 

Linking aerosols to this global day can highlight how local monitoring and immediate action can complement the broader push for systemic climate solutions. It also reframes ��������’s environmental modernization as a strategic opportunity to lead a global dialogue on balancing clean air with stable climate outcomes for all.

�������� is well placed to help the world navigate this paradox. The National Center for Environmental Compliance now runs around 240 monitoring stations nationwide. They track fine particles and key gases, collecting data every five minutes, and cover many strategic areas, including major cities and pilgrimage centers. 

These stations provide more than information; they are tools for prevention, forecasting, and early action that can help protect communities from haze and heat events while positioning the Kingdom as a leader in environmental resilience. This system gives �������� one of the densest air-quality networks in the developing world, able to detect local aerosol shifts faster than most national systems can today.

��������’s emerging capacity to link aerosol data, health outcomes, and temperature feedbacks could position it as a bridge between science and policy for the Global South.

Hassan Alzain & Adnan Masoudy

These data can be fused with new satellite observations. NASA’s PACE mission, launched in 2024, is already delivering unprecedented insights into aerosols and clouds. Together, ground and space monitoring can shrink uncertainties that still cloud global climate projections. Integrating these systems would allow Saudi researchers to map the daily movement of atmospheric particles across the Arabian Peninsula, connecting local emissions with global climate patterns in near real time.

There is also a scientific opportunity that the world cannot afford to miss. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is now preparing its Seventh Assessment Report, with a Synthesis Report due in 2029. A dedicated Methodology Report on short-lived climate forcers, including aerosol precursors and black carbon, will be released in 2027. This moment offers a powerful platform to bring aerosols into the center of global climate strategies and ensure that cleaner skies are aligned with a safer climate future. Saudi data can inform this process directly, demonstrating how emerging economies can transition to clean air while avoiding abrupt temperature spikes.

Four steps could make the difference. First, the 2025 round of climate pledges should include targets for black carbon and other short-lived pollutants, sequenced with earlier cuts to carbon dioxide and methane.

Second, the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf could follow the Mediterranean, which on May 1, 2025, became a SOx Emission Control Area with a 0.10 percent sulfur limit. Extending this model would provide a strategic layer of protection for cities like Jeddah and Dammam while balancing climate impacts through coordinated greenhouse gas cuts.

Third, specialized institutions and decision-makers should fund fast reductions in black carbon. Targeting diesel engines, flaring, brick kilns, and open burning brings immediate health and climate gains. These are quick wins with strong co-benefits.

Fourth, the Gulf Cooperation Council could establish a regional aerosol and cloud data hub. By integrating ��������’s monitoring with PACE satellite observations, the region can build an open, transparent platform for early-warning systems and better climate planning.

As Graeme Mitchell, award-winning environmental health educator at Liverpool John Moores University, has observed: “Each new stream of atmospheric and ocean data expands the possibilities for carbon management. When we translate science into governance, we create pathways for more equitable, effective, and sustainable stewardship of the planet’s systems.”

��������’s emerging capacity to link aerosol data, health outcomes, and temperature feedbacks could position it as a bridge between science and policy for the Global South. By quantifying how cleaner air reshapes the regional energy balance, the Kingdom can help the world master one of the most complex frontiers of climate management, how to cool the planet safely while clearing the skies.

• Hassan Alzain is author of an award-winning book “Green Gambit.”

• Adnan Masoudy is manager of corporate sustainability, environment, and biodiversity at Ma’aden.