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COP30, the latest edition of the annual UN climate change conference, is coming at a time of accelerating climate issues and risk. Scientists are increasingly warning that tropical forest systems — especially the Amazon — are approaching a tipping point. Recent assessments also reveal that much of the Amazon is already degraded or deforested to the point that even modest further losses could push it past a key threshold.

This means that the efforts of the next few years will determine whether global warming can be limited to the targets set out in the Paris Agreement. So, next month’s COP30 is critical and should be more than a diplomatic meeting. It must ensure policy, finance and local action proportionate to the scale of the danger.

Hosting the conference in Belem, Brazil, has more than symbolic importance. Holding the negotiations at the edge of the Amazon places the forest, its people and its ecology at the heart of global climate discussions. This should force policymakers and delegates to directly confront what is at risk — not in abstraction but in living ecosystems and communities.

The conference in Brazil must ensure policy, finance and local action proportionate to the scale of the danger

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Moreover, the urgency of scaling finance is greater than ever. As a result, COP30 ought to address the gaps, as many countries’ existing commitments fall far short of what climate science indicates is needed. The deficit is not only in ambition but also related to the capacity for implementation and funding.

COP30 must focus on several issues and areas that are intertwined and it should also pay special attention to particular regions whose stakes are disproportionately high.

First, halting deforestation and forest degradation must be at the core of the discussions. The Amazon biome is essential and the accumulated losses of forest cover and degradation are threatening its ecological integrity and its capacity to function as a carbon sink. It is also important to restore degraded lands and ensure that economic development does not drive further forest loss.

Second, in terms of climate finance, developing countries — particularly tropical forest nations, small island states and least developed countries — face severe shortages. As a result, the international community should increase transparency, ensure accountability and channel funds directly to subnational actors and vulnerable populations.

Third, the rights and participation of indigenous peoples should be guaranteed. This means supporting local livelihoods, respecting land tenure and territorial governance, avoiding displacement and involuntary resettlement, and ensuring that benefit-sharing occurs.

Fourth, many regions are already experiencing climate impacts — intensified storms, floods, droughts and fires, threats to water and food security, and damage to infrastructure. Therefore, COP30 ought to strengthen actions that help societies buffer, adapt to and recover from harm.

When it comes to regions, the Amazon itself is indispensable. What happens in the Amazon has global consequences. Other regions that need attention include Latin America and the Caribbean. Small island states, least developed countries and parts of Africa and Southeast Asia where tropical forests remain are also key.

Some civil society coalitions have already delivered detailed proposals for the protection of the Amazon. Their roadmap includes calls to conserve extensive areas, restore degraded land, strengthen nature-based solutions, promote deforestation-free supply chains, and recognize that much funding currently flows into unsustainable practices.

Its success will depend on whether it leads to tangible outcomes that are cemented in binding commitments

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

The Baku to Belem Roadmap and Brazil’s proposed Tropical Forests Forever Facility also address some of the core deficits in climate finance, especially for forests, adaptation and the need for results-based payments. More importantly, the inclusion of indigenous peoples, civil society and local governments in planning and calls for governance reforms are positive signs.

Nevertheless, there are still some substantial gaps. First, the scale of the finance proposed may be insufficient, as the estimates for what is needed to avoid catastrophic climate change — in forests and globally — are far larger. The ambition for $1.3 trillion annually is , but disbursement, monitoring and ensuring that money reaches those who need it most remain a challenge.

Furthermore, inclusion could be threatened if representatives from vulnerable regions or nonstate actors are unable to attend or participate fully, meaning the outcomes may be skewed toward powerful actors.

Implementation capacity could also be uneven. Many of the proposals depend on strong local governance and the legal enforcement of rights, which in many parts of the Amazon remain fragile. Timelines and accountability are critical. Proposals must not only be adopted on paper but also have clear, monitored deadlines and enforcement. Without these moves, COP30 will only create declarations and roadmaps that will not be translated into sustained, long-term change.

COP30 in Belem may prove to be one of the most consequential climate summits ever. The stakes are exceptionally high due to the potential collapse of portions of the Amazon. The proposals already on the table could be effective. But the summit’s success will depend on whether it leads to tangible outcomes that are cemented in binding commitments.

The importance of COP30 should not only lie in the convening of global actors, but in them taking concrete action that shifts climate governance toward greater justice and effectiveness. This includes whether finance is delivered at the scale needed and whether the voices of those most affected — indigenous peoples, local communities and poorer nations — are genuinely heard and empowered.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh