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More than nine months into his second term, US President Donald Trump is no closer to bringing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to an end than he was on Day 1. But something in his thinking about the conflict is starting to change.

On the campaign trail, bidding for a second term, Trump was clear in his criticism of US support for Ukraine and the policies pursued by his predecessor, Joe Biden. He routinely called US assistance a waste of taxpayers’ money, often placed the blame for the invasion on Ukraine and insisted that, once in the Oval Office, he would end the war in 24 hours. There is no doubt his intentions were genuine. He wanted to bring about a peace agreement between the two warring countries, seeing this as a way to define his legacy as an international statesman and peacemaker.

To achieve this goal, however, Trump tried to walk a very fine line. He made sure never to show outright support for either Russia or Ukraine. At times, he even appeared to put more pressure on Kyiv than on Moscow. He would take heavy criticism at home for refusing to call Russia the aggressor. Even his Cabinet picks, during their Senate confirmation hearings, were careful to echo Trump’s neutral-sounding statements.

Then came the early White House meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky. The public spat between Zelensky, Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance quickly became infamous. Many observers at the time thought that US-Ukraine relations were broken beyond repair and that the flow of American support was finished. For Ukrainians, it looked like they would be left on their own to fend off Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Policy has been shifting in Washington. Trump is now considering a request from Ukraine for Tomahawk missiles

Luke Coffey

But what a difference several months can make. Trump now seems to be realizing that Vladimir Putin is the obstacle to peace in Ukraine, not the enabler of it. His decision over the summer to sell billions of dollars in US weapons and munitions to Europeans — who then delivered them to Ukraine — surprised many, given his earlier rhetoric against arming Kyiv. This framework allowed Trump to walk a political tightrope with his base of support, which has been hostile to aid for Ukraine, while still ensuring Kyiv received the material support it needed.

In recent months, Trump has dispatched his special envoy to meet personally with Putin in Moscow and even took the controversial step of inviting the Russian leader to American soil for a meeting in Alaska. While this was criticized heavily at home, Trump seemed convinced that direct engagement could yield results. Yet, as the months dragged on, it became obvious that Putin was never serious about reaching a comprehensive peace. He was willing to engage just enough to appear interested, but only to buy time and to keep Trump from applying additional sanctions.

Since the Alaska meeting, policy has been shifting in Washington. This week, Vance confirmed that Trump is considering a request from Ukraine for American Tomahawk cruise missiles. With a range of about 2,400 km, these missiles could strike deep inside Russia. The very idea of providing Tomahawks to Ukraine during the Biden administration would have seemed impossible, to the point that nobody in policy circles was suggesting it. The fact that Trump is now publicly considering it shows just how much his thinking has evolved since taking office.

Another sign of change came with Trump’s decision to give NATO countries the green light to shoot down Russian planes, drones or missiles that stray into the airspace of alliance members. Up until then, Europeans had been hesitant, fearing escalation — even when Russian drones crashed inside their borders. But after NATO forces recently shot down more than a dozen drones over Poland, and with Trump signaling his support for continued robust action, there have been no repeated Russian incursions into NATO skies. This suggests that Moscow is recalculating its risk of escalation, a shift prompted by Trump’s willingness to back fellow NATO countries.

Trump made clear that he believed in Ukraine’s ultimate victory. This is something Biden never said publicly

Luke Coffey

Most surprising of all was Trump’s lengthy social media post during the week of the UN General Assembly regarding Ukraine. In it, he stated openly that Ukraine could not only win the war but retake all its territory, restoring its 1991 borders — including Crimea. If there was a defining moment in his rhetoric on Ukraine, this was it. For the first time, Trump made clear that he believed in Ukraine’s ultimate victory. This is something Biden never said publicly and the contrast was striking, if not also surprising.

The peace process may remain stalled but Ukraine’s position has improved. Trump’s earlier willingness to accommodate Putin — sending envoys, offering meetings, holding back sanctions — was rooted in the belief that Russia wanted peace. But now even Trump appears to understand that more pressure will need to be applied to Moscow before it comes to the table in good faith.

What comes next is uncertain. Considering the deployment of Tomahawks to Ukraine is not the same as actually providing them. Saying Ukraine can win is not the same as giving Ukraine the means to achieve victory. Weapons and ammunition remain essential, not just from Europe but, crucially, from the US.

Trump knows that his legacy will be defined abroad as well as at home. His recent peace efforts in Africa, the Caucasus and South Asia have drawn attention, but the ultimate prize is ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Doing so would reshape the global security landscape in a way few other actions could.

That requires turning words into action. Ukraine deserves an honorable and fair peace. To reach it, Trump must deliver the support Ukraine needs and apply the pressure necessary to change Putin’s calculus. If he succeeds, his legacy as a peacemaker will be secured. If he fails, history will record that he had the opportunity — but did not act.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey