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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s gains in poverty reduction have reversed in recent years, with the national poverty rate climbing to 25.3 percent in 2023-24 after falling steadily for nearly two decades, the World Bank said on Tuesday.

The findings were released in a new assessment, Reclaiming Momentum Towards Prosperity: Pakistan’s Poverty, Equity and Resilience Assessment, the first comprehensive review of poverty and welfare trends since the early 2000s.

Drawing on two decades of household surveys and projections, the report warns that Pakistan’s earlier progress has stalled, eroded by economic shocks and weak policy.

“After a steady decline from 64.3 percent in 2001-02 to 21.9 percent in 2018-19, the national poverty rate began to increase in 2020,” said Christina Wieser, a senior economist and one of the report’s lead authors. “Since 2021, poverty has begun to rise, exacerbated by COVID-19, the 2022 floods, inflation and faltering policies and reached 25.3 percent in 2023-24.”

She stressed the need for bold, sustained and people-centered reforms to reduce poverty, strengthen resilience and protect vulnerable populations, adding: “Reforms that expand access to quality services, protect households from shocks and create better jobs, especially for the bottom 40 percent are essential to break cycles of poverty and deliver durable, inclusive growth.”

The World Bank in June raised its global poverty threshold to $4.20 a day, under which about 44.7 percent of Pakistanis fall.

Bolormaa Amgaabazar, the Bank’s country director for Pakistan, said this figure was not directly comparable to the national estimate of 25.3 percent, as the two are based on different benchmarks.

“They are not comparable,” he said. “The 45 percent is based on the upper middle-income poverty line that is the global poverty line, and the 25.3 percent is based on the national poverty line and projections based on that.”

Amgaabazar urged Pakistan to protect earlier poverty gains while accelerating reforms.

“By focusing on results — investing in people, places and access to opportunities, building resilience against shocks, prioritizing fiscal management and developing better data systems for decision-making — Pakistan can put poverty reduction back on track,” he said.

The report found that much of Pakistan’s poverty reduction over the past 20 years was driven by households moving from farm work into low-paying service jobs, but slow structural change has limited diversification, job creation and income growth.

The World Bank outlined four pathways to restore progress, including investing in human capital and local services, building household resilience through stronger safety nets, adopting progressive fiscal measures such as phasing out subsidies in favor of targeted spending and improving data systems to guide policy.

Pakistan has received over $48.3 billion in World Bank assistance since joining in 1950.

The Bank’s current portfolio in the country includes 54 projects with total commitments of $15.7 billion.

ISLAMABAD: The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has said that water levels in flood-affected areas in Punjab are receding “significantly,” state broadcaster Radio Pakistan reported on Tuesday, with the death toll from monsoon rains and floods rising to 304 since late June.

Heavy monsoon rains and floods in Pakistan have killed at least 1,006 people nationwide and injured 1,063 since Jun. 26. While Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) has reported the highest deaths, 504, Punjab reported devastation on a massive scale in late August. Heavy rains coupled with excess water released by dams in India triggered floods in the province, killing 134 and injuring 13. 

Over 4,700 villages in Punjab, also known as Pakistan’s breadbasket province, were inundated while 4.7 million people were affected in total. Authorities said they launched the largest search and rescue operation in the province, evacuating 2.6 million people and 2.1 million animals to safer locations. Water levels have recently started receding in Punjab’s Ravi, Chenab and Sutlej rivers as floods continue to flow downstream into Sindh. 

“Provincial Disaster Management Authority Punjab says the flow of water in the rivers is normal across the province,” Radio Pakistan said. “In a statement, Director General PDMA Irfan Ali Kathia said water levels in the flood-affected areas are also receding significantly.”

Kathia said medium to low flood conditions continue to persist in the river Sutlej while currently there is no water flow in the hill torrents of Punjab’s Dera Ghazi Khan Division.

The PDMA said it had set up 271 relief camps and over 300 medical camps in flood-affected areas in Punjab since late August. 

Floods in Punjab had also triggered power outages, causing further misery for the province’s residents already reeling from the deluges. 

In a separate statement, the Power Division said that out of a total of 51 grids and 588 feeders affected, 373 feeders have been fully restored while 208 have been partially restored. 

Despite contributing less than one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. 

Catastrophic floods in 2022 killed nearly 1,700 people, submerged a third of the country at one point, and inflicted over $30 billion in damages, according to government estimates.

The government has stressed the importance of early warning systems and disaster mitigation efforts, as experts warn future monsoon seasons could cause even more destruction across Pakistan.