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After diplomatic blitz on Ukraine and Gaza, Trump moves to passenger seat

After diplomatic blitz on Ukraine and Gaza, Trump moves to passenger seat
US President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with European leaders in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on August 18, 2025. (AFP) file photo)
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Updated 21 September 2025

After diplomatic blitz on Ukraine and Gaza, Trump moves to passenger seat

After diplomatic blitz on Ukraine and Gaza, Trump moves to passenger seat
  • European diplomats, once heartened by Trump’s engagement with NATO, now worry
  • Trump’s reaction to recent Russian air incursions muted

WASHINGTON: Pentagon officials sat down with a group of European diplomats in late August and delivered a stern message: The US planned to cut off some security assistance to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, all NATO members bordering Russia.

More broadly, Pentagon official David Baker told the group, according to an official with direct knowledge of the comments, Europe needed to be less dependent on the United States.

Under President Donald Trump, the US military would be shifting its attention to other priorities, like defense of the homeland. Some European diplomats fretted that the move, first reported earlier this month, could embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On Friday, they may have been proven right. Russian MiG-31 jets entered Estonian airspace for roughly 10 minutes, Estonia said, before being chased away by Italian F-35s.

Russia denied violating Estonian airspace, saying its jets flew over neutral waters. Hours later, Russian jets buzzed a Polish oil platform, Warsaw said. Last week, Russian drones were downed in Poland. The US response to those incidents has so far been muted. Trump did not address the latest incursion for several hours, before saying it could be “big trouble.”

After last week’s Polish incident, he posted cryptically on his Truth Social app: “Here we go!“
His responses appear to fit an emerging pattern.
After months of proposing both ideas to solve or intermediate some of the world’s most intractable conflicts, Trump has largely withdrawn from diplomacy in recent weeks. Instead, he has allowed and in some cases pressed allies to take the lead, with only distant promises of US help. He has increasingly turned his attention to domestic issues, like tackling crime, confronting what he calls violent left-wing extremism and overhauling a major visa program.




A Russian MIG-31 fighter jet flies above the Baltic sea after violating Estonian air space. Three Russian MiG-31 fighters violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland on Friday, Estonia said, triggering complaints of a dangerous new provocation from the EU and NATO. (AFP)

Returning to form

After an intense summer of diplomacy, including hosting Putin in Alaska, Trump has told Europeans they must impose punishing sanctions on buyers of Russian oil if they expect Washington to tighten the financial screws on Moscow over its war in Ukraine.

After the US president spent the first several months of his term trying to secure a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, he has lately shrugged off moves by Israel that would seem to undermine the possibility of a deal to end the war in Gaza.

White House officials protested when Israel bombed a Hamas office located in the territory of US ally Qatar but took no action. When Israel launched a controversial military advance on Gaza City, Trump did not object, even as European and Arab allies condemned the move, which seemed likely to doom peace talks.
That Trump would be wary of US involvement in major conflicts is in some ways unsurprising. He spent two years on the campaign trail arguing the nation was militarily overstretched. Political opponents called him an isolationist. But over the summer, a different Trump emerged. To the chagrin of some conservative political allies, he bombed Iran’s key nuclear sites in support of Israel’s air war in June. 

At a NATO conference in the Netherlands later that month, he indicated he would send fresh Patriot defense systems to Ukraine. In July, he intensified his threats of sanctions and tariffs targeting Moscow.
Now, analysts say, Trump is returning to form.
Aaron David Miller, a veteran US diplomat and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Trump may have simply realized the conflicts are far more intractable than he had imagined.
“He’s not interested in doing anything unless he sees that the expenditure of effort and political capital will be worth the return,” Miller said.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Mercurial president, exhausted diplomats

The president’s latest zig could easily be followed by a zag. In April and May, he publicly floated walking away from the war in Ukraine, only to re-engage heavily on the issue. Moreover, the White House’s disengagement has not been absolute. In recent weeks, some US weapons have begun flowing into Ukraine as part of a US-NATO security assistance initiative called the PURL program.
Still, analysts expressed concern that the mild US reaction to Russia’s latest provocations will only encourage more aggressive steps by Putin.
Further US disengagement “would lead us to more provocative actions from Putin as he sees Europe as weaker because it can be divided — especially without the US there to back it up,” said Alex Plitsas, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.




French Air Force pilots get ready for take off in a Rafale fighter jet prior to a joint mission with Polish F16s at an air base in Minsk Mazowiecki on September 17, 2025, following Warsaw's accusation that Moscow launched a drone raid into Poland. (AFP)

Several European diplomats in Washington privately expressed exhaustion at Trump’s changeable attitude on Russia — and suggested another hardening of his stance toward Moscow could lack credibility.
Over the summer, those diplomats said, the mood was notably different.
At a NATO summit in June, Trump heaped praise on European leaders and the next month repeatedly threatened Russia with direct and secondary sanctions and agreed to set up PURL. But the anti-climactic summit with Putin produced no breakthroughs and a major setback for Kyiv: Trump left the meeting saying a ceasefire in Ukraine was not a precondition of lasting peace — a position held by Putin, but not European allies.
In a testy September 4 call with European partners, Trump argued that European nations were expecting the US to bail them out when Europeans were still themselves supporting Russia’s war machine by purchasing Russian oil, according to two officials briefed on the call.
The next week, Trump told European Union officials they should hit China and India with 100 percent tariffs to punish them for their purchases of Russian oil. He portrayed such a move as a precondition for US action, one official said.
Trump’s supporters say he is only demanding that Europe stand up for its own security. But some diplomats sense a trap. Such measures would be hard to get through the EU’s bureaucracy promptly, particularly as the bloc prefers sanctions to tariffs. Two senior European diplomats in Washington also noted that Trump has recently spoken of lowering trade barriers with India.
It is unclear if Friday’s Estonia incursion will alter Trump’s calculus toward Russia. His government appeared unmoved by a letter from lawmakers in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia last week calling for reconsideration of Trump’s plan to eliminate some security assistance.
“Many of our European allies are among the world’s wealthiest countries,” a White House official said. “They are fully capable of funding these programs if they choose.”


Thousands of Africans returned home through an EU program, as many say they’ve been abandoned

Thousands of Africans returned home through an EU program, as many say they’ve been abandoned
Updated 4 sec ago

Thousands of Africans returned home through an EU program, as many say they’ve been abandoned

Thousands of Africans returned home through an EU program, as many say they’ve been abandoned
Migrants tell AP that promises by the UN-affiliated organization are not fulfilled, leaving them to face trauma
Of the $380 million budget for that period, 58 percent is allocated for post-return assistance, the IOM said

CONAKRY, Guinea: When Oumar Bella Diallo boarded a plane home to the West African nation of Guinea in July, the weary 24-year-old thought his migration ordeal was over.
He had spent almost a year trying to reach Europe. He said he was attacked by police and scammed for money as he crossed Mali, Algeria and Niger, at one point limping past corpses in the desert. After seeing fellow migrants die from hunger and exhaustion, he gave up.
He is among tens of thousands of Africans returning home with the help of the International Organization for Migration, as Europe spends millions of dollars to deter migrants before they reach its shores. The European Union-funded IOM program pays for return flights and promises follow-up assistance.
But migrants tell The Associated Press that promises by the United Nations-affiliated organization are not fulfilled, leaving them to face trauma, debt and family shame on their own. Desperation could fuel new migration attempts.
The AP spoke to three returnees in Gambia and four in Guinea, and was shown a WhatsApp group of over 50 members founded around returnees’ frustration with the IOM. They described months of reaching out to the IOM with no reply.
Diallo said he told the IOM he wanted to start a small business. But all he has received is a phone number for an IOM counselor and a five-day orientation course on accountability, management and personal development. He said many returnees had trouble grasping it because of low education levels.
“Even yesterday, I called him,” Diallo said. “They said for the moment, we have to wait until they call us. Every time, if I call them, that’s what they tell me.” He said he asked for medical help with a foot injured on his migration attempt but was told it was impossible.
As the oldest child of a single mother, the responsibility for supporting relatives weighs heavily.
“If there’s not so much money, you’re the head of the family too,” he said.
Millions spent but little scrutiny
The IOM program is financed almost completely by the EU and was launched in 2016. Between 2022 and 2025, it repatriated over 100,000 sub-Saharan migrants from north Africa and Niger.
Of the $380 million budget for that period, 58 percent is allocated for post-return assistance, the IOM said.
Francois Xavier Ada with the IOM regional office in West Africa told the AP that over 90,000 returnees have started, and 60,000 completed, the reintegration process “tailored to individual needs.” Ada said that can “support anything from housing, medical assistance or psychosocial services to business grants, vocational trainings and job placement.”
Migrants told the AP they had not received any of those.
Ada said the IOM was ”concerned” to learn of people kept waiting and “happy to look into these cases.” He added that delays can occur due to high caseloads or incomplete documentation, and medical assistance is not guaranteed.
Experts said there is little insight into how the EU money helps returnees. The European Court of Auditors, an EU body, audited the program’s first phase between 2016 and 2021 and said it failed to demonstrate sustainable reintegration results, monitoring was “insufficient to prove results” and the EU “could not prove value for money.”
“The EU policy is obsessed with returns,” said Josephine Liebl with the Brussels-based European Council on Refugees and Exiles. “The question of how this support actually helps people in very vulnerable situations receives very little public scrutiny, which is due to the fact that there is such a lack of transparency and accountability of how EU funding works outside the EU.”
The EU did not respond to questions on the details of the budget beyond repeating IOM statements.
Moustapha Darboe, a Gambian journalist who interviewed over 50 returnees for an investigation into the IOM program, said they had to wait a long time, often almost a year, and support they eventually received did not match their skills and ambitions.
“The IOM is donor-based,” he told the AP. “Their primary focus is not to help these people, their primary focus is to tick their box.”
Haunted by shame and stigma
The IOM program has coincided with Europe’s other efforts to deter migration, including paying some African governments to intercept migrants, an approach denounced by human rights groups that accuse African authorities of being complicit in abuses.
Europe’s efforts appear to be working. In the first eight months of 2025, it recorded 112,000 “irregular” crossings, over 20 percent less than the same period last year, and a drop of over 50 percent from two years ago.
Experts say that while the IOM’s return program helps to extract people from inhumane treatment, the promised follow-up support is often impossible to deliver as most migrants’ home countries have poorly functioning state services.
“The major missing piece is the support for the returnees to get reintegrated, have access to social protection and to labor markets,” said Camille Le Coz, director of the Brussels-based Migration Policy Institute.
Kabinet Kante, a 20-year-old from Guinea who dreamed of being a footballer in Germany, spent almost two years trying to reach Europe. He said he was intercepted at sea and dumped in the desert, and still wakes at night screaming.
He returned to Guinea in July with the IOM’s help. He said he wanted to learn how to drive a bulldozer but the IOM has ignored his calls, and when he went to their office, they told him to stop calling.
He set up the WhatsApp group for over 50 other returned and frustrated migrants. He also records TikTok videos warning against the treacherous route to Europe.
But he has no way to pay back his parents, who supported his journey by sending money to pay smugglers and bribe officials.
“Right now, I am doing nothing,” he said, head bowed with embarrassment.
‘Going on an adventure’
Like many sub-Saharan African countries, Guinea has rich natural resources, including the world’s largest iron ore deposits. But experts say bad governance and exploitation by foreign companies have left most of the population destitute.
Over half of Guinea’s population of 15 million is experiencing “unprecedented levels of poverty,” according to the World Food Program, and cannot read or write. The official monthly minimum wage is less than $65. Most people work in the informal economy and earn even less.
“Those with degrees work as taxi drivers here,” Diallo said. “If there were, like elsewhere, job opportunities in the country, everyone would stay here.”
Diallo and Kante said they are not planning on “going on an adventure” any time soon — a term used widely to describe the migration route to Europe.
But that’s mostly because they don’t have money. They dream of working in Europe legally, but the visa process can cost hundreds of dollars, and applicants from sub-Saharan countries have a high rejection rate.
Elhadj Mohamed Diallo, director of the Guinean Organization for the Fight Against Irregular Migration, is a former migrant who reached Libya before turning back. He now works with the IOM on reintegration activities but indicated doubt about their ability to prevent returnees from migrating again.
He said he doesn’t blame them as life at home becomes more difficult.
“We aren’t helping them so that they can stay. We are helping them so they can take control of their lives again,” he said. “Migration is a natural thing. Blocking a person is like blocking the tide. When you block water, the water will find its way.”