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At the present time, the gravest danger to Israel’s long-term security and the well-being of its people emanates from its own government — first and foremost its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. His decision to carry out a strike on senior Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital Doha was criminally reckless. The Israeli government, drunk with the success of being able to hit targets across the region at will, has lost any sense of judgment and fails to recognize any red lines.

Qatar, a close ally of the US, is by no definition an enemy country. No act of military hostility against Israel has ever originated from its soil, and it is a crucial mediator in efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza. So to launch an airstrike on its capital in an attempt to kill those who are supposed to be negotiating a ceasefire, and the return of the hostages, as much as you might perceive them as worthy of death, was an act of extreme folly, cynicism, and opportunism.

To make it even worse for Netanyahu, he also needs to explain why the operation failed to achieve its objective of killing the Hamas leadership. Ironically, this might be the only silver lining in this episode: that at least there is some Hamas leadership left to negotiate a desperately needed end to the hostilities, especially as Israel intensifies its assault on Gaza City.

Netanyahu’s ploy is to keep Israeli society, for as long as possible, sunk deep into the trauma of Oct. 7, 2023. As long as there are enough people crippled by the existential fear that shook them so badly in what was Israel’s lowest point in its history, he and his government will be able to manipulate the situation and continue this never-ending war.

Only this scenario keeps them in power, and considering the authoritarian trajectory that Netanyahu is taking the country on, it is possible that he might attempt to postpone or even cancel the next election, or, should they lose, refuse to recognize its validity. The Netanyahu rhetoric of not only defeating Hamas, but also completely eliminating the organization and its people, points to years of continuous war.

The irrationality and ill-intention of Israel’s strike on Doha, beyond the distorted logic of Netanyahu’s method of clinging to power, has led to international condemnation, particularly by countries across the region, which have used the strongest language possible. The international community is at a loss to provide an answer to the question of how to contain a trigger-happy Israel that enjoys the backing of Washington.

The very idea that Qatar, a country that during the past two years has played a major part in negotiating a ceasefire, and which remains at the heart of such negotiations, should be attacked with complete disregard for its sovereignty and for international law, has instilled genuine fear in the Middle East that as long as the current government in Israel remains in power, it will be the single most threatening source of regional instability.

It seems that no country, friend or foe, will be spared from Israeli aggression to serve its alleged security interests, which will be carried out without any consideration of political consequences. Hence, the international condemnation of the strike on Qatar was only to be expected, and the damage to relations in the region was inevitable.

The gravest danger to Israel’s long-term security emanates from its own government. 

Yossi Mekelberg

The emergency summit of Arab and Islamic countries called immediately after the Israeli strike and convened in Doha reflected this sense of outrage and urgency to unite against such aggression. This led to closer cooperation among GCC countries, with wider international support.

The consensus was that the aim of the attack was to kill off the negotiations by assassinating the Hamas leaders who were considering the latest ceasefire proposal, and thereby alienate one of the main mediators. This scenario suits Netanyahu perfectly as Israeli forces enter Gaza City, displacing hundreds of thousands of people. Hundreds have been killed already in the past week.

It remains to be seen how the joint statement by the Doha summit urging “all states to take all possible legal and effective measures to prevent Israel from continuing its actions against the Palestinian people,” including “reviewing diplomatic and economic relations with it, and initiating legal proceedings against it,” will be translated into actionable measures.

However, Israel will be making a grave mistake if it ignores the mood expressed by this statement. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who is no friend of Hamas, has warned that Israel’s current actions are hindering any chances of new peace treaties in the Middle East, “and even abort(ing) existing ones.” Israel ignores these warnings at its peril.

Over the last few decades what has improved Israel’s security has always been reaching peace deals and normalization measures with its neighbors. When such goals have failed to materialize, especially with the Palestinians, instead of reaching a constructive compromise that ensures the rights and security of both, Israel has preferred to oppress and dispossess them, creating conditions on the ground to deliberately undermine the right of Palestinians to self-determination. This has ended in disaster.

Over the past two years, enjoying the goodwill of a number of countries in the region was crucial in defending Israel from Iranian and Houthi missile attacks. The Arab League has explicitly stated that Hamas will not be part of governing Gaza at the end of this war, but Netanyahu continues to refuse to take this on board, although that scenario could benefit both Israelis and Palestinians.

Instead, the Israeli leader and his ultra-nationalist government are exhausting the patience of regional leaders who now face growing demands from their own people to go beyond condemnation and warnings, and in the case of Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Morocco, and Bahrain, to reconsider severing diplomatic relations. Moreover, further normalization with other states in the region seems at this point to be an extremely distant possibility.

Two developments, separately or together, could restrain or even bring down the most damaging government in Israel’s history, to its own people, and to the region. Either the US administration changes its approach and stops supporting the war in Gaza and/or the Israeli people take to the streets and act with determination until Netanyahu calls a general election. Neither the US nor Israel’s citizens can afford to allow their interests to be flouted by those who are either trying to escape justice or harboring messianic delusions.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg