ISLAMABAD: Pakistan, the world’s fourth-largest rice exporter, expects its yield to remain strong this year despite devastating floods that have submerged large swathes of farmland, the head of the country’s rice exporters’ association said on Friday, dismissing reports of catastrophic crop losses.
The country’s rice exports have been steadily rising, with Pakistan shipping around 6 million tons in the last fiscal year and earning over $3.2 billion in revenue, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The sector is vital to the national economy, providing livelihoods to millions of farmers and contributing significantly to GDP.
The Pakistan Business Forum, a national platform for economic and policy dialogue, recently claimed the floods had wiped out 60% of the rice crop, but the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) strongly rejected the figure.
“Out of 12.2 million acres under cultivation, we expect at least 12 million acres of crop size this year,” Malik Faisal, the association’s chairman, told Arab News, suggesting losses of about 200,000 acres.
He called the 60% loss estimate “absolutely absurd,” noting that Sindh, Pakistan’s main rice-producing province and the backbone of non-Basmati exports, had largely escaped flood damage.
While acknowledging losses in Punjab, the agricultural heartland and center of Basmati cultivation, Faisal estimated damage at only around 10%.
“Even if we lose 10% of the crop, we still have 20% more cultivation than last year, which means overall production will be higher,” he said.
Pakistan, which supplies premium Basmati rice to Europe and is increasingly targeting the US market, expects to export up to 8 million tons this year after meeting domestic demand. Faisal said the country remained on track to become the world’s third-largest rice exporter within five years.
On the ground, however, the picture is more mixed. Dr. Shoukat Ali, a professor at the University of Agriculture Faisalabad, estimated that crops in at least 140 villages in Punjab have been destroyed. Farmers have also been reporting personal losses.
“I lost my entire rice crop on 117 acres of land. What can I do? It’s God’s will,” said Asadullah Rizwan, a grower from Wazirabad district.
Another farmer from the same area, Furqan Ahmad, said he lost his cow and five acres of rice.
However, economists urge caution in making early predictions.
“As the water recedes one will come up with better estimates,” said Abid Qayyum Sulehri of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute. “Initial reports suggest damage to between 600,000 and 700,000 acres, though some business councils have estimated losses as high as 20%.”
Rice is Pakistan’s second-most important staple after wheat, contributing about 3% of agricultural value-added and 0.6% of GDP.
Exports hit $3.2 billion last year, led by strong sales to the Middle East, Africa and China, where shipments surged 84% in the first half of 2025.
Despite challenges, Faisal insisted this year’s crop will be one of the largest in Pakistan’s history.
“Last year, we had a crop area under cultivation for 11.2 million acres. Out of that, we could only get production from 9.7 million acres,” he said.
This year cultivation has risen to 12.2 million acres, he continued, with healthy output expected from about 12 million acres, and maximum damage predicted at only around 10%, meaning the harvest should still exceed previous year’s.
“Pakistan’s rice crop is staying unharmed,” he said. “We will have a larger crop and a larger export turnover this year.”
However, flood-driven supply concerns have already pushed Basmati prices up by around $50 per ton.
Competition from India, Thailand and Vietnam could tighten margins further, especially as international rice prices hover at 20-year lows.
“Pakistan’s rice sector will keep growing,” Faisal said optimistically. “We will, inshallah, become the third-largest exporter in a matter of five years.”
