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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s disaster management chief in Punjab warned on Thursday that the next 24 hours would be “extremely critical” as floods surged down the Chenab River, threatening the southern city of Multan and dozens of nearby villages after weeks of heavy monsoon rains and dam releases from India.

Punjab, home to half of Pakistan’s 240 million people, is the country’s most populous and agriculturally vital province, often described as its breadbasket. Officials say 46 people have been killed, nearly 3.9 million people affected, 1.8 million displaced, and thousands of villages inundated as the Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers have overflowed since late last month. 

Nationwide, more than 883 people have died in floods, rains and landslides since the monsoon season began in late June, according to the National Disaster Management Authority. The disaster has revived memories of the 2022 deluges, when a third of the country was submerged, 30 million people were displaced and losses exceeded $35 billion.

“This is a critical time for the city and district of Multan,” Punjab Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Director General Irfan Ali Kathia told reporters at a press conference. 

“The main surge of the Chenab has already reached Head Muhammad Wala at its peak and is now moving downstream.”

Multan, with a population of about 2.6 million, is the largest city in southern Punjab and the region’s economic hub, famous for mango exports, textiles and fertile farmland. 

Kathia said while there was “no danger” yet at Head Muhammad Wala, a barrage point on the Chenab upstream of Multan, the Sher Shah Bridge flood gauge near the city had already reached maximum capacity with only “two to three inches of space” left.

If authorities were forced to operate a breaching section to relieve pressure, he warned, “there are about twenty-seven locations that can be affected by it,” including settlements such as Shershah, Akbarpur and Mirzapur, with 35,000 residents at risk.

Kathia said backwater flows on the Ravi River were worsening the crisis, creating stagnant water in Toba Tek Singh and Khanewal districts. 

“At present, under the backwater effect… there are about two hundred and three villages that have been affected,” he said, adding that more than 1.8 million people and 1.3 million animals had already been evacuated with the help of the Pakistan Army and Rescue 1122.

Relief Commissioner Nabeel Javed said separately in a statement that 46 people had died in Punjab in the latest spell of monsoon rains and floods. He said 410 relief camps, 444 medical camps and 395 veterinary camps had been set up across the province to support those displaced.

RIVER FLOWS AND SINDH THREAT

River flows continued to remain dangerously high on Thursday.

The Chenab was at 217,000 cusecs at Marala, 450,000 at Khanki and 507,000 at Qadirabad, while Chiniot bridge had climbed past 509,000 cusecs and was still rising.

On the Ravi, flows stood at 84,000 cusecs at Jassar and nearly 128,000 at Balloki, both rising. The Sutlej carried 335,000 cusecs at Ganda Singh Wala and 139,500 at Sulemanki, with 169,000 steady at Panjnad. (One cusec equals one cubic foot per second of water flow.)

With reservoirs on both sides of the border near full capacity — Tarbela at 100 percent, Mangla at 87 percent, and India’s Bhakra, Pong and Thein all above 90 percent — officials warned of further downstream pressure in the southern province of Sindh. 

Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah said his province was preparing for a potential “super flood” as inflows from Punjab converged in the coming days.

“Our preparations are complete, and we pray this time passes without major damage,” Shah told reporters, warning that persuading riverine communities to evacuate remained the greatest challenge.

PESHAWAR: Unidentified gunmen ambushed a police patrol in northwest Pakistan last night, a senior official said on Thursday, killing three policemen and wounding another before escaping.

The assault occurred in Banda Dawood Shah, in Karak district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, an area close to Bannu that has long been prone to militant violence.

Bannu itself was the scene of a major attack earlier this week, when six security personnel and six militants were killed in an hours-long battle at a paramilitary Frontier Constabulary base after a suicide bomber rammed the compound.

“The attackers, who were lying in ambush, suddenly opened fire on the police party at around 9:30 p.m. [on Wednesday],” said Shaukat Khan, spokesperson for Karak district police.

“Inspector Umar Niaz and two other policemen succumbed to their injuries on the spot, while one personnel was critically injured and rushed to a nearby hospital,” he added.

Khan said the assailants fled after the attack, prompting police to cordon off the area and launch a search operation.

A case has been registered, and an investigation is underway to determine the motive.

KP has witnessed a surge in militant violence in recent months, much of it blamed on the Pakistani Taliban, also known as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organization of militant outfits in the region.

Pakistani officials say TTP militants operate from neighboring Afghanistan and have previously accused the Kabul administration of “facilitating” cross-border attacks. Kabul rejects the allegation, saying Pakistan’s security issues are its internal matter.

Pakistani security forces have also launched intelligence-based operations in the region to counter the militant presence.