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ISLAMABAD: Cloudbursts are causing chaos in mountainous parts of India and Pakistan, with tremendous amounts of rain falling in a short period of time over a concentrated area. The intense, sudden deluges have proved fatal in both countries.

As many as 300 people died in one northwestern Pakistani district, Buner, after a cloudburst. The strength and volume of rain triggered flash flooding, landslides and mudflows. Boulders from steep slopes came crashing down with the water to flatten homes and reduce villages to rubble.

The northern Indian state of Uttarakhand had a cloudburst earlier this month. Local TV showed floodwaters surging down a mountain and crashing into Dharali, a Himalayan village. In 2013, more than 6,000 people died and 4,500 villages were affected when a similar cloudburst struck the state.

WHAT TO KNOW

They are complex and extreme weather events.

A cloudburst occurs when a large volume of rain falls in a very short period, usually more than 100 millimeters (about 4 inches) within an hour over a localized area, around 30 square kilometers (11.6 square miles).
Cloudbursts are sudden and violent, with devastating consequences and widespread destruction, and can be the equivalent of several hours of normal rainfall or longer. The event is the bursting of a cloud and the discharge of its contents at the same time, like a rain bomb.

Several factors contribute to a cloudburst, including warm, moist air rising upward, high humidity, low pressure, instability and convective cloud formation.

Moist air is forced to rise after encountering a hill or mountain. This rising air cools and condenses. Clouds that are large, dense and capable of heavy rainfall form.

Hills or mountains act like barriers and often trap these clouds, so they cannot disperse or move easily. Strong upward currents keep moisture suspended inside the clouds, delaying rainfall.

When the clouds cannot hold the accumulated moisture anymore, they burst and release it all at once.

IDEAL CONDITIONS IN INDIA, PAKISTAN

Cloudbursts thrive in moisture, monsoons and mountains. Regions of India and Pakistan have all three, making them vulnerable to these extreme weather events.

The Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush mountain ranges are home to the world’s highest and most famous peaks, spanning multiple countries including India and Pakistan.

The frequency of cloudbursts in these two South Asian nations has been steadily rising due to a warming atmosphere, because a warmer air mass can hold more moisture, creating conditions for sudden and intense downpours.

The South Asian region has traditionally had two monsoon seasons. One typically lasts from June to September, with rains moving southwest to northeast. The other, from roughly October to December, moves in the opposite direction.

But with more planet-warming gases in the air, the rain now only loosely follows this pattern.

This is because the warmer air can hold more moisture from the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, and that rain then tends to get dumped all at once. It means the monsoon is punctuated with intense flooding and dry spells, rather than sustained rain throughout.

The combination of moisture, mountains and monsoons force these moisture-laden winds upward, triggering sudden condensation and cloudbursts.

HARD TO PREDICT

It’s difficult to predict cloudbursts because of their size, duration, suddenness and complex atmospheric mechanisms.

Asfandyar Khan Khattak, a Pakistani official from the northwest province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, said there was “no forecasting system anywhere in the world” that could predict the exact time and location of a cloudburst.

The Pakistani government said that while an early warning system was in place in Buner district, where hundreds of people died after a cloudburst, the downpour was so sudden and intense that it struck before residents could be alerted.

Community organization SOST, which is also the name of a border village in Pakistan’s northern Gilgit-Baltistan region, says precautions are possible.

It advises people to avoid building homes right next to rivers and valleys, to postpone any travel to hilly areas if heavy rain is forecast, to keep an emergency kit ready, and to avoid traveling on mountainous roads during heavy rain or at night.

It recommends afforestation to reduce surface runoff and enhance water absorption, and regular clearing and widening of riverbanks and drainage channels.

CLIMATE CHANGE FUELS FREQUENCY

Experts say cloudbursts have increased in recent years, partly due to climate change, while damage from associated storms has also increased due to unplanned development in mountain areas.

Climate change has directly amplified the triggers of cloudbursts in Pakistan, especially. Every 1°C rise allows the air to hold about 7 percent more moisture, increasing the potential for heavy rainfall in short bursts.

The warming of the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea pushes more moisture into the atmosphere. Melting glaciers and snow alter local weather patterns, making rainfall events more erratic and extreme. Environmental degradation, in the form of deforestation and wetland loss, reduces the land’s ability to absorb water, magnifying flash floods.

Climate change has been a central driver in the destruction seen in Pakistan’s northern areas.

“Rising global temperatures have supercharged the hydrologic cycle, leading to more intense and erratic rainfall,” said Khalid Khan, a former special secretary for climate change in Pakistan and chairman of climate initiative PlanetPulse.

“In our northern regions, warming accelerates glacier melt, adds excessive moisture to the atmosphere, and destabilizes mountain slopes. In short, climate change is making rare events more frequent, and frequent events more destructive.”

ISLAMABAD: The death toll from this week’s torrential rains and flooding in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province has risen to 323 since Aug. 15, the KP Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said on Sunday, as federal authorities forecast more rains over the next 24 hours.

The cumulative death toll from rain-related incidents in Pakistan has surged to 657 since late June, when the monsoon rains first began in the country, according to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).

Apart from KP, 164 fatalities have been reported in Punjab, 32 in Gilgit-Baltistan, 28 in Sindh, 20 in Balochistan, 15 in Azad Kashmir and eight in the federal capital of Islamabad.

Raging hill torrents flattened several homes and swept away dozens of people in KP’s Swat, Buner, Bajaur, Torghar, Mansehra, Shangla and Battagram districts on Friday. Officials said several bodies were found on Sunday in the worst-hit Buner district.

“So far, 323 people have died and 156 people have been injured in various accidents due to rains and flash floods in the province,” the KP PDMA said on Sunday night.

“The deceased include 273 men, 29 women and 21 children, while the injured include 123 men, 23 women and 10 children.”

The rains, cloudbursts and deluges have damaged a total of 336 houses since Aug. 15, according to the PDMA report. Of these, 106 were completely destroyed. A total of 209 people have been displaced in Buner district, the most affected by Friday’s cloudburst and subsequent floods.

KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur on Sunday visited Buner, where he promised survivors compensation for their financial losses, urging residents of disaster-prone areas to relocate from there.

“The data of all the losses is being compiled,” CM Gandapur told reporters in Buner. “It is beyond our power to compensate the loss of lives, but we will compensate financial losses, damages to private property.”

Several people were still missing and search efforts were focused on areas where homes were flattened by water torrents that swept down from the mountains, carrying massive boulders that smashed into houses like explosions.

The NDMA has forecast more “heavy to very heavy rainfall” in parts of the country over the next 24 hours, particularly in Islamabad, KP, Punjab and Azad Kashmir, under the current weather system.

“Heavy to very heavy rainfall/thunderstorms are expected in Islamabad over the next 24 hours with occasional gaps. Most parts of Punjab will see widespread rainfall/thunderstorms. Districts in the Potohar and northeastern parts, including Rawalpindi, Attock, Jhelum, Chakwal, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Gujrat, Narowal, Hafizabad, and Mandi Bahauddin, are expected to face heavy to very heavy rainfall, increasing the chances of urban flooding,” it said on Sunday evening.

“Northern and upper KP districts, including Swat, Buner, Shangla, Dir, Mansehra, Battagram, Abbottabad, and Malakand, are expected to witness heavy spells, with flash floods and landslides possible in hilly terrain over the next 24 hours. The Peshawar valley, covering Peshawar, Charsadda, Nowshera, Mardan, and Swabi, will see scattered thunderstorms.”

In Azad Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Bagh, Haveli, Kotli, Mirpur and Bhimber are expected to receive heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, which may trigger landslides and flash flooding, particularly in hilly areas, according to the authority.

Isolated rainfall is expected in Gilgit, Skardu, Hunza, Ghizer, Diamer, Astore, Ghanche, and Shigar. Rainfall may cause debris flows, landslides, or local flooding in valleys. The southern province of Sindh and Balochistan may receive light to moderate rainfall.

The monsoon season brings South Asia about three-quarters of its annual rainfall, vital for agriculture and food security, but also brings destruction.

“The intensity of this year’s monsoon is around 50 to 60 percent more than last year,” NDMA chief Lt. Gen. Inam Haider told journalists in Islamabad on Sunday.

“Two to three more monsoon spells are expected until the first weeks of September.”

Pakistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change and is contending with extreme weather events with increasing frequency. Monsoon floods in 2022 submerged a third of the country and killed around 1,700 people.