Germans start voting, polls suggest shift to right

Update Germans start voting, polls suggest shift to right
Above, a campaign poster for Friedrich Merz, Christian Democratic Union party candidate for chancellor, is pictured in Berlin on Feb. 22, 2025, ahead of the parliamentary election. (Reuters)
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Updated 23 February 2025

Germans start voting, polls suggest shift to right

Germans start voting, polls suggest shift to right
  • Frontrunner Friedrich Merz vows tough rightward shift if elected, to win back voters from the far-right anti-immigration Alternative for Germany
  • The AfD has basked in the glowing support lavished on it by Trump’s entourage, with billionaire Elon Musk touting it as the only party to “save Germany"

BERLIN: Germans were voting in a national election on Sunday that is expected to see Friedrich Merz’s conservatives regain power and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) score its best ever result as Europe’s ailing economic powerhouse lurches rightwards.

Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc has consistently led polls but is unlikely to win a majority given Germany’s fragmented political landscape, forcing it to sound out coalition partners.

Those negotiations are expected to be tricky after a campaign which exposed sharp divisions over migration and how to deal with the AfD in a country where far-right politics carries a particularly strong stigma due to its Nazi past.

That could leave unpopular Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a caretaker role for months, delaying urgently needed policies to revive Europe’s largest economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.

It would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe even as it deals with a host of challenges, including US President Donald Trump’s threats of a trade war and attempts to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.

Germany, which has an export-oriented economy and long relied on the US for its security, is particularly vulnerable.

Germans are more pessimistic about their living standards now than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008. The percentage who say their situation is improving dropped sharply from 42 percent in 2023 to 27 percent in 2024, according to pollster Gallup.

Attitudes toward migration have also hardened, a profound shift in German public sentiment since its “Refugees Welcome” culture during Europe’s migrant crisis in 2015.




People walk past a campaign poster of Friedrich Merz, Christian Democratic Union party candidate for chancellor, in Potsdam, Germany, on Feb. 22, 2025. (Reuters)

Musk weighs in

Sunday’s election follows the collapse last November of Scholz’s coalition of his center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and pro-market Free Democrats (FDP) in a row over budget spending.

The SPD is headed for its worst result since World War Two.

The election campaign has been dominated by fierce exchanges over the perception that irregular immigration is out of control, fueled by a series of attacks in which the suspected perpetrators were of migrant origin.

It has also been overshadowed by the unusually forceful show of solidarity by members of the Trump administration – including Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk – for the anti-migrant AfD, and broadsides against European leaders.

The 12-year-old AfD is on track to come in second place for the first time in a national election.

“I’m completely disappointed in politics, so maybe an alternative would be better,” said retired Berlin bookkeeper Ludmila Ballhorn, 76, who plans to vote AfD, adding she was struggling to live on her pension of 800 euros. “Rents and all other costs have soared.”

The AfD, however, is unlikely to govern for now as all mainstream parties have ruled out working with it, though some analysts believe it could pave the way for an AfD win in 2029.

Still, its strength, along with a small but significant vote share for the far-left and the decline of Germany’s big-tent parties, is increasingly complicating the formation of coalitions and governance.

Coalition options

EU allies are cautiously hopeful the elections might deliver a more coherent government able to help drive forward policy at home and in the bloc.

Some also hope Merz will reform the “debt brake,” a constitutional mechanism to limit government borrowing that critics say has strangled new investment.

The most likely outcome of this election, say analysts, is a tie-up of Merz’s conservative bloc of Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) with the SPD, which is polling in third place in another uneasy “grand coalition.”

Polls, however, suggest another three-way coalition may be necessary if several small parties make the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament, complicating talks.

“A lot of my friends are likely going to vote for the conservatives because this government didn’t work so well and Merz’s international standing is quite good,” said Mike Zeller, 26, a civil servant.

“I just hope enough parties agree to a government so they can leave the AfD out.”


Corruption scandal, court battles pose test for Ukraine’s Zelensky

Corruption scandal, court battles pose test for Ukraine’s Zelensky
Updated 7 sec ago

Corruption scandal, court battles pose test for Ukraine’s Zelensky

Corruption scandal, court battles pose test for Ukraine’s Zelensky
  • Justice Minister German Galushchenko, a former energy minister, was suspended Wednesday after being caught up in an investigation
KYIV: A major corruption scandal and mounting accusations that the Ukrainian presidency is using the judiciary to intimidate and silence critics has rocked Kyiv, presenting a significant test for Volodymyr Zelensky almost four years into the Russian invasion.
Justice Minister German Galushchenko, a former energy minister, was suspended Wednesday after being caught up in an investigation into one of Zelensky’s top allies, who is accused of orchestrating a $100-million scheme to secure kickbacks from the power sector.
While Galushchenko denies any wrongdoing, the scandal has sparked anger as Ukraine’s electricity grid is creaking under a barrage of attacks from Russia as the country heads into winter.
These challenges come at a critical time for Zelensky, who has remained popular and largely unchallenged since Russia invaded in 2022, with Moscow’s forces advancing in the east.
It also shows how strained the tightrope that Ukraine has been forced to walk – between centralising power to run the war, and forging on with democratic reforms key to joining the EU – is becoming.
The latest case to trigger accusations that Zelensky’s team are weaponizing the judicial system to intimidate critics was last month’s arrest of Volodymyr Kudrytsky, who led national energy company Ukrenergo until 2024, on embezzlement accusations.
Kudrytsky and his backers reject the claims as retribution for criticizing Ukraine’s strategy to defend the energy grid from Russian attacks.
“It’s purely political. It couldn’t happen without the involvement of the presidential office,” Kudrytsky, currently on bail, said, saying that he was being lined up as a scapegoat.
The authorities want to “demonstrate what will happen if you comment on sensitive matters,” he added, pointing to his strained ties with the country’s leadership.
‘Something they don’t like’
Kudrytsky has won some high-profile supporters.
Business ombudsman Roman Waschuk said the evidence “appears quite flimsy” and warned against “targeting people for simply performing their normal corporate functions.”
Opposition lawmaker Inna Sovsun said it was part of a strategy of using criminal investigations to silence people.
“So you know there is a case against you, and they will try to use it if you do something they don’t like,” she said.
Asked by AFP about the case last week, Zelensky said it was a question for the judiciary but that Kudrytsky “was a chief of a big system, and that system had to secure our energy. He had to do it.”
The grid has been battered by Russian attacks and charges that Kyiv could have done more to protect the network are sensitive.
Alongside the court cases, this week’s allegations of a massive corruption scandal involving Timur Mindich, co-owner of the production company founded by the president, have fueled worries about the centralization of power amid the war.
Zelensky’s office had this summer tried to strip the independence of the two agencies investigating and prosecuting the case – the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO).
The dynamic presents a challenge to Brussels, which supports Ukraine’s bid to join the bloc but is pressing Kyiv to build on democratic reforms if it wants to join the bloc.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has been plagued by corruption scandals – with graft and rule-of-law major vulnerabilities in Kyiv’s EU bid.
While Brussels has praised progress made since the 2014 revolution, its latest monitoring report said: “The integrity, meritocracy and capacities of the judiciary and prosecutorial service... remain weak.”
‘People are afraid’
Activists have also pointed to other cases.
Zelensky’s predecessor and political rival Petro Poroshenko was charged with corruption earlier this year, a move he denounced as politically motivated.
Odesa mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov was stripped of his Ukrainian citizenship over allegations – denied by him – that he possesses a Russian passport.
Even some of his critics said it was a case of Zelensky’s office trying to tighten control over a region run by the opposition.
And one NABU detective, Ruslan Magamedrasulov, remains in custody, charged with aiding an aggressor state for allegedly doing business with Russia.
Supporters say that case is fabricated – retribution for his work investigating the scandal that came to light this week.
Other NABU staff have been detained or had their homes searched, heaping pressure on the agency.
“Some people are afraid. But if you’re talking about the general staff of the NABU, most of them are very motivated,” head Semen Kryvonos said.
There is mounting worry about how Zelensky will respond.
“The question now is – what will be their reaction,” said Daria Kaleniuk, head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center.
“If Zelensky will decide to cover his inner circle and attack.”