https://arab.news/2v6hc
About 50,000 delegates from more than 190 countries descended on the Brazilian city of Belem earlier this week for COP30, the annual UN climate change conference, with the two-week negotiations likely to be not so much about reaching another deal as about making past agreements count.
Andre Correa do Lago, the president of this year’s UN talks, warned that the Global North has lost its enthusiasm for tackling the climate crisis. In contrast, the Global South shows resilience and is moving toward sustainability. While seeing the Global South adapt to new climate conditions instills some hope for tackling global warming, it is still the Global North that produces the most pollution, with the Global South paying the price. What is frustrating, on the occasion of this annual global climate change pilgrimage, is that despite the incontestable evidence that humanity is marching toward environmental cataclysm, implementation of the most necessary steps to stop global warming is at best partial.
One indication of the almost laissez-faire approach taken by too many countries is the neglect of their responsibility to submit updated nationally determined contributions, each country’s targets to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change by 2035. The requirement to submit a plan once every five years was agreed as a core commitment in the Paris agreement. By the end of the last month, only 64 countries had done so, raising questions about their commitment and the seriousness with which they take this year’s summit. Ten years after the landmark Paris agreement, which recognized that only a joint effort could keep the planet from warming by more than 1.5 C, too many countries are still neglecting their responsibilities.
The delay in submitting climate plans is especially concerning, with the European Copernicus Climate Change Service presenting data showing that 2024 was the world’s hottest year on record. It was also the first calendar year to exceed the threshold of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. This undesirable record is set to be broken again this year. According to the UN Emissions Gap Report 2025, “reductions to annual emissions of 35 percent and 55 percent, compared with 2019 levels, are needed in 2035 to align with the Paris agreement 2 C and 1.5 C pathways, respectively.” The report concluded that, in light of the magnitude of the cuts in gas emissions required, the short time available to deliver them, and the less-than-accommodating political climate, temperatures are likely to exceed the target.
One could repeat the indisputable evidence that climate change is taking place, and is causing immense suffering and in some cases irreparable and irreversible damage to individuals and communities, to the disappearance of many species, and that natural disasters are happening with more frequency and with increased intensity — but to what purpose, if there is no political and societal will and determination to take the necessary measures to reverse this trend? The idea of another COP that, after weeks of debate and late-night knife-edge negotiations, reaches another agreement, only to be watered down by the same governments that signed it, seems somewhat pointless.
Brazil has suggested the adoption of a different approach.
Yossi Mekelberg
Hence, Brazil, the host of this year’s summit, has suggested the adoption of a different approach, based on the concept of mutirao, a word that originated from Tupi-Guarani, an indigenous language of Brazil, which translates as a group of people who work together to create something that benefits all, and in the case of climate change, the global community. Moreover, the emphasis is that this must be a continuous method of mobilization based on what has already been achieved, extending through COP30 and beyond until the objective of ensuring the limitation of global warming is achieved. Considering that countries have hardly complied with past agreements, it is not surprising that some see this approach as either naive or as a public relations stunt to attract attention to a subject that only a few years ago saw growing traction, especially among young people.
Unfortunately, in recent years other issues have drawn more public attention, and to some extent, there has also been climate change fatigue. To make things worse, the strong environmental movement is increasingly facing a counter-movement of climate change skeptics, either from vested interests or from those who fall into the trap of believing that it is all one big myth.
Yet, there are also signs of positive developments, with countries making efforts to reduce their carbon footprint. Correa do Lago pointed out that China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, is also the biggest producer and consumer of low-carbon energy — “coming up with solutions that are for everyone, not just China,” he said. Last year, China’s wind and solar capacity under construction was double that of the rest of the world combined, leading to lower prices for solar panels and wind turbines.
There is also an increase in investment in nuclear energy, mainly in Asia, and in 2024, nuclear reactors supplied more electricity than ever before. This indicates that when political will exists and is matched by adequate resources, countries can enter a transition phase toward a greener economy. The challenge is for more countries to show determination and allocate resources — or help with resources — to make the shift to the green economy, which will create almost open-ended opportunities, at least for the foreseeable future.
For those who subscribe to the green industrial revolution, it could be a game-changer, not only for developing sustainable economies, but also for their international status, which would be in the ascendancy well into the 21st century.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.
X: @YMekelberg