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According to the UN and the World Meteorological Organization, 2025 is projected to be one of the hottest years in human history. This is because average global temperatures continue to rise at an unprecedented pace. This increase is felt particularly acutely in the Middle East, a region that has contributed minimally to global emissions yet bears a disproportionate share of the climate burden.
Ahead of the crucial COP30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil, which opened this week, it was reported that, over the first eight months of this year, global mean surface temperatures about 1.4 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. This is not only one of the highest temperatures in recorded history, but it also means that the world is getting dangerously close to surpassing the 1.5 C limit set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. If this trend continues, we will most likely reach 2.3 C to 2.5 C of warming this century.
The implications of such a significant rise would be catastrophic, particularly for already-arid and heat-stressed regions such as the Middle East. As a result, COP30 should not just be about states restating commitments, but about making structural transformations when it comes to climate change.
The Middle East and North Africa ought to be a focal point; it is warming at roughly twice the global average. Due to the climatic characteristics of the region, such as its aridity, water scarcity and fragile ecosystems, it is exceptionally vulnerable to rising temperatures. In the Levant and parts of North Africa, summer temperatures now routinely exceed 50 C, which strains electricity grids and threatens human health. Some projections suggest that, by mid-century, parts of the region could “wet-bulb” temperatures — a measure that combines heat and humidity — that surpass the thresholds of human survivability.
COP30 should be about states making structural transformations when it comes to climate change
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
The challenge, however, is about more than temperature extremes. Water scarcity has also reached critical levels in the Middle East, undermining agricultural capacity. Major rivers such as the Tigris, Euphrates and Jordan have seen severe reductions in flow. Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Yemen and Iran, among others, are witnessing escalating competition over scarce resources, all while populations in rural and agricultural zones are being forced to migrate to urban centers.
Due to desertification, water scarcity and the loss of arable land, communities can be pushed into cycles of poverty and dependence. In other words, the human dimension of this crisis cannot be overstated due to the fact extreme heat disproportionately affects the poor, refugees and informal laborers, who lack access to air conditioning, adequate shelter or healthcare.
Moreover, the intensifying scarcity of water also causes power outages, food insecurity and displacement. For example, in countries like Yemen, climate stress worsens the devastation of conflict, while in stable nations like Jordan, it can place extraordinary pressure on limited natural and financial resources. This means that the climate crisis is a threat multiplier, exacerbating every existing social and political vulnerability.
Against this backdrop, industrialized nations and major emitters should not only accelerate their domestic decarbonization targets at COP30, they should also extend robust support to countries that are disproportionately affected. Climate justice means that nations that have historically reaped the benefits of carbon-intensive development should now help with the burden of adaptation elsewhere.
The climate crisis is a threat multiplier, exacerbating every existing social and political vulnerability
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
When it comes to the Middle East, the forms of assistance that are urgently required are multifaceted. Firstly, there is an urgent need for enhanced adaptation finance. Despite mounting evidence of climate-induced damage, the region remains underfunded in adaptation programs relative to its exposure. Investments can focus on water management systems and the rehabilitation of degraded lands.
Secondly, technology transfer must be accelerated to enable Middle Eastern states to adopt low-carbon techniques, advanced irrigation systems and renewable energy infrastructures.
Thirdly, the region needs strong and sustained support for nature-based solutions that mitigate desertification.
The Middle East’s hydrological and ecological systems are deeply interdependent. As a result, COP30 must serve as a platform to catalyze new frameworks for transboundary water management, as well as joint research. For instance, collaborative approaches to managing the Tigris-Euphrates basin, the Jordan River and the Red Sea and Gulf ecosystems would not only enhance environmental resilience but could also serve as a foundation for peace.
Finally, the moral and legal imperatives in this case are evident because Middle Eastern states have collectively contributed less than 5 percent of cumulative global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet they face some of the most severe consequences. COP30 should translate this moral clarity into operational outcomes. Furthermore, the Belem summit must ensure that these mechanisms are not burdened by bureaucratic complexity or conditionality that undermines their accessibility to the most vulnerable states.
If the Middle East continues to experience rising temperatures, declining water availability and degraded ecosystems, the region could face humanitarian and geopolitical crises that will most likely have global repercussions. Migration pressures could ratchet up, resource conflicts could increase and fragile states could collapse. The longer the world waits to act, the higher the cost of inaction.
In a nutshell, 2025 will be another year of record-breaking heat, while the Middle East stands at the intersection of vulnerability and neglect, bearing immense climate burdens despite minimal responsibility. As a result, COP30 must ensure not just empty promises but recognition of the profound injustice of climate disparities, while seeking to rectify them in the Middle East through decisive and tangible actions.
- Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh