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A year after Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, pressure is mounting on the Lebanese government to take extreme measures to disarm the militant group and cut off its links with its main benefactor, Iran. The US has informed President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam that, unless concrete steps are taken to end all sources of finance to the group and to dismantle its weapons, Washington cannot guarantee that Israel will not intervene to end Hezbollah’s threat.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated that Tel Aviv is ready to step in and destroy Hezbollah. In recent weeks, he and his defense minister, Israel Katz, have accused Hezbollah of rebuilding its arsenal, recruiting thousands and smuggling weapons from Iran through Syria. Israel has stepped up its daily attacks on what it says are Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. It claims that it has killed hundreds of the group’s militants since the ceasefire came into effect last November.
Meanwhile, the party’s secretary-general, Naim Qassem, has sent stern messages to the Lebanese government rejecting any attempt to disarm the group or engage in direct talks with Israel. While the government and the army have a mandate to end Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon and restrict all arms to the state, meaning disarming Hezbollah, little has been done in that regard. A confrontation between the army and Hezbollah could easily spark a civil war in Lebanon. While Aoun is determined to fulfill a promise to disarm nonstate actors and limit weapons to state control, in reality, the government and the national army have no tools to implement that promise.
A confrontation between the army and Hezbollah could easily spark a civil war in Lebanon
Osama Al-Sharif
There is no evidence that Hezbollah is rearming and getting ready for another round with Israel. It suffered considerable losses in the last war and, with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, it has lost control over smuggling routes from Iran. Its leadership now claims that it will not engage in a dialogue over disarming itself while Israel continues to violate the ceasefire agreement by occupying five strategic positions in southern Lebanon. It claims that Israel has never fulfilled its obligations under UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
Furthermore, the party, which is represented in the government, has reiterated that an exclusive state monopoly over arms can only be discussed as part of a comprehensive strategy to defend Lebanon against Israeli threats.
Such a stalemate fits Israel’s objectives and short-term strategy. Netanyahu, who feels cornered on Gaza by President Donald Trump’s peace plan, has no such restrictions when it comes to Lebanon, or Iran for that matter. He has hinted that the confrontation with Iran is not over. He may not be happy with this week’s historic visit to the White House by Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, which could result in restricting Israeli movement in Syria through US guarantees to Damascus. But when it comes to Lebanon, Netanyahu can make a strong case.
Hezbollah attacked Israel during the war on Gaza. Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets into northern Israel and forced tens of thousands of Israelis to evacuate. In Israel’s view, which is shared by Washington, Hezbollah remains a threat and it must be dismantled either by the Lebanese themselves or by Israel.
Hezbollah’s reference to direct talks between Lebanon and Israel is another path that Washington is trying to pursue. The US special envoy to Syria and Lebanon, Tom Barrack, has been putting pressure on Lebanese officials to engage in peace talks with Israel. He has suggested that the two sides agree to security arrangements that would eventually lead to a peace treaty under Trump’s Abraham Accords. But while Aoun expressed readiness to engage in indirect talks, the issue of peace between Lebanon and Israel is extremely divisive among the Lebanese.
The current crisis in Lebanon over disarming the party will keep the country weak and polarized
Osama Al-Sharif
For Israel, security talks would center on ending the UN peacekeeping role in southern Lebanon, abandoning any Israeli obligations under UNSC 1701 and forcing Lebanon to accept an Israeli presence in key strategic points south of the Litani River. No Lebanese official would accept such terms. For Netanyahu, the current reality under the so-called ceasefire suits him well.
Washington will continue to pressure the Lebanese government over the Hezbollah file. And the current crisis in Lebanon over disarming the party will keep the country weak and polarized. Such a stalemate serves Israeli interests at a time when Netanyahu, seeking to keep himself in power, is vowing that the battle against the enemies in Lebanon and Gaza has not ended.
There is no doubt that Hezbollah has suffered huge losses, not only on the battlefield but at the level of leadership. Qassem is no Hassan Nasrallah and the party today is a shadow of what it was two years ago. Iran has lost its Syrian ally and the geopolitical map of the region has been redrawn.
The alarming thing for the Lebanese is that the current political stalemate cannot continue for much longer. The country is close to becoming a failed state. Israel controls its airspace and is launching strikes daily. The US is offering a way out, but the remedy is bitter and dangerous. The specter of a civil war breaking out is real. The Israeli threat to invade and occupy more territory is not far-fetched.
Hezbollah’s leadership must not repeat past mistakes. There is so much at stake at this crucial moment of Lebanon’s history. It must provide Aoun and the government with the resources to counter US pressure and Israeli threats. It must accept the premise that only the state should have exclusive control over arms and it must demonstrate its willingness to fulfill its obligations as a Lebanese political party.
Permanent peace between Israel and Lebanon is a realistic endeavor and a legitimate goal. But it cannot be imposed on the Lebanese people when Israel refuses to withdraw from the territory it occupies in southern Lebanon or while it continues to violate Lebanon’s sovereignty. Such peace must be honorable and the US should not use the Israeli scarecrow to force Lebanon into submission.
- Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010