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Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. For years, it has carried the weight of one of the world’s largest refugee crises with little international support. Nearly a million Rohingya remain trapped in sprawling camps along its southeastern border, with no realistic hope of a return to their homeland in Myanmar. But under Mohammed Yunus, who leads Bangladesh’s interim government, Dhaka has the chance to redefine its role — not as a victim of geography but as a regional stabilizer capable of influencing the future of both Myanmar and the Rohingya.
This comes at a moment of deep upheaval across the region. Myanmar is collapsing into a patchwork of local fiefdoms. The once-dominant military government has lost control of much of the country, especially in Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army now holds power over most townships. This new reality changes everything. The question of Rohingya repatriation can no longer be resolved through negotiations with Naypyitaw alone. It must involve new actors that hold real authority on the ground.
For Bangladesh, this presents both danger and opportunity. The danger is obvious: instability along the border could spill over into Cox’s Bazar, where desperation is already growing as international funding dwindles. The World Food Program has cut rations to as little as 27 cents per person per day. Malnutrition, trafficking and violence are on the rise. Unless a credible plan for repatriation and economic relief emerges soon, the camps could descend into chaos.
Yet there is also an opening. Under Yunus’ leadership, Bangladesh is rebuilding its credibility abroad. His reputation as a Nobel peace laureate and reformer has reassured Western partners that had grown wary of corruption and repression under the previous government. At the same time, Yunus has maintained a careful balance with India and China — both of which have strategic stakes in Myanmar’s future. This rare diplomatic alignment gives Dhaka a chance to lead rather than react.
The Yunus government could begin to craft a framework for safe and phased repatriation once the conflict stabilizes
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
The key will be whether Yunus is willing to rethink how Bangladesh approaches the crisis. For years, Dhaka’s policy has been narrowly focused on pressuring Myanmar’s junta to take the Rohingya back. That strategy has failed. The generals have neither the will nor the capacity to guarantee safety or citizenship for returning refugees. But the Arakan Army and its political wing, the United League of Arakan, have shown a different attitude. While their commitment to full inclusion of the Rohingya remains uncertain, they have at least expressed interest in local governance and regional cooperation. This offers a small but significant opening.
If Bangladesh were to quietly engage with the Arakan Army and the national unity government — the exiled civilian coalition that still commands legitimacy among many Burmese — it could begin to craft a framework for safe and phased repatriation once the conflict stabilizes. Such engagement would also send a message to the international community: that Dhaka is not waiting for others to solve its problems but is taking proactive steps toward a durable solution.
This would also align with the broader transformation underway in Myanmar. As the central state weakens, local administrations are emerging with varying degrees of autonomy. In this fragmented environment, any future settlement will likely depend on a constellation of local agreements rather than a single national deal. Bangladesh, with its border proximity and humanitarian stake, is uniquely placed to mediate some of these arrangements — particularly in Rakhine, where it shares historical, cultural and economic ties.
Donors must recognize that the humanitarian crisis in Bangladesh cannot be separated from the political crisis in Myanmar
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
Of course, such diplomacy would be complex. Engaging with nonstate actors carries risks, especially if it is perceived as legitimizing separatist movements. But Yunus’ government could manage this carefully, framing it as part of a humanitarian dialogue rather than political recognition. The aim would not be to choose sides in Myanmar’s war but to ensure that any new governing authority in Rakhine recognizes the Rohingya’s right to return and live in safety.
At the same time, Bangladesh must strengthen the resilience of the Rohingya population it already hosts. The current model of indefinite encampment is unsustainable. Dhaka should expand programs that allow for limited education, vocational training and controlled economic participation. This would not only improve conditions in the camps but also prepare the refugees for eventual reintegration when the opportunity arises. It would also help defuse domestic tensions by reducing the perception that the Rohingya are a permanent burden.
International support will be essential. The UN and major donors must recognize that the humanitarian crisis in Bangladesh cannot be separated from the political crisis in Myanmar. Funding shortfalls have already forced aid agencies to scale back food, health and education services. Without renewed assistance, the risk of radicalization and criminal exploitation will grow. Yunus can use his global stature to rally attention — particularly in Europe and North America, where compassion fatigue has set in.
There is a historic opportunity here. Bangladesh could transform itself from a passive recipient of global sympathy into an active architect of regional stability. The Rohingya issue, long seen as a humanitarian tragedy, could become the basis for a new kind of diplomacy rooted in pragmatism, inclusion and foresight.
Yunus has spent his life proving that small countries and small ideas can achieve big things when guided by moral clarity. The challenge before him now is larger than any microfinance experiment — it is to show that Bangladesh can lead by example in one of the world’s most intractable crises. If his government succeeds in charting a new path for the Rohingya and helping stabilize Myanmar’s western frontier, it will not only transform Bangladesh’s global image but also offer hope that, even in this era of fragmentation, principled leadership still matters.
- Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim