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KARACHI: Afghanistan’s economic recovery is buckling as nine in 10 households are forced to skip meals, sell belongings or take on debt to survive, the United Nations said on Wednesday, warning that mass returns are exacerbating the country’s worst crisis since the Taliban returned to power.

A United Nations Development Programme report said nearly one in 10 overseas Afghans has been forced back home, with more than 4.5 million returnees since 2023, mainly from Iran and Pakistan, swelling the population by 10 percent. On top of that, earthquakes, floods and drought have destroyed 8,000 homes and strained public services “beyond their limits.”

Quakes, floods and hunger

A survey of more than 48,000 households found that more than half of Afghanistan’s returnees have skipped medical care to buy food and 45 percent rely on open springs or unprotected wells for water.

Nearly 90 percent of returning Afghan families are in debt, owing $373 to $900, up to five times the average monthly income of $100 and nearly half of annual per-capita gross domestic product, the UNDP said.

In areas with high numbers of returnees, one teacher serves 70 to 100 students, 30 percent of children work and joblessness among returnees reaches 95 percent. The average monthly income is 6,623 Afghanis ($99.76), while rents have tripled.

The UNDP warned that without urgent support to strengthen livelihoods and services in high-return areas, overlapping crises of poverty, exclusion and migration will deepen.

It said sustaining aid is critical as donor pledges have plunged since 2021, covering only a fraction of the $3.1 billion that the UN sought for Afghanistan this year.

The Taliban government appealed for international humanitarian assistance after a deadly quake struck eastern Afghanistan in September and it has formally protested Pakistan’s mass expulsion of Afghan nationals, saying it is “deeply concerned” about their treatment.

The Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation, the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and a government spokesperson did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Women bear the brunt

Participation by women in Afghanistan’s labor force has fallen to 6 percent, one of the lowest globally, and restrictions on movement have made it nearly impossible for women who head households to access jobs, education or health care.

Kanni Wignaraja, UN assistant secretary-general and UNDP regional director for Asia and the Pacific, said, “In some provinces one in four households depend on women as the main breadwinner, so when women are prevented from working, families, communities, the country lose out.”

Households headed by women, accounting for as many as 26 percent of returnee families in some districts, face the highest risk of food insecurity and secondary displacement.

The UNDP urged Taliban authorities to allocate more resources and called on donors to lift restrictions on female aid staff.

“Cutting women out of frontline aid work means cutting off vital services for those who need them most,” Wignaraja said.