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Tensions are at an all-time high in Lebanon. US envoy Tom has reportedly given Beirut until the end of November to disarm Hezbollah, warning that Israel will launch a military action if nothing changes once this deadline has passed. Lebanon is on the brink of a war. Some say the US is just raising the stakes before negotiations. However, the stakes are already very high and nothing should be left to chance.
The internal situation is very tense. It has exceeded the rhetoric. Parliamentarians in Lebanese Forces circles have filed a legal complaint against Naim , the secretary-general of Hezbollah, accusing him of inciting a civil war. According to my source, prior to the lawsuit there were some talks between the two parties, but now there is no more communication.
On the international front, the US last week imposed another round of sanctions on who are taking advantage of the cash economy. The group is cornered and this is dangerous. A cornered animal will attack and will not acquiesce.
Israel鈥檚 Haaretz newspaper on Sunday published an article claiming that the ceasefire, which has been holding only , would collapse in a matter of days. Israeli are reportedly being deployed on the border. The potential scenarios for Lebanon are very grim.
Israeli tanks are reportedly being deployed on the border. The potential scenarios for Lebanon are very grim
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
While, initially, there was momentum to disarm Hezbollah in the wake of last year鈥檚 ceasefire agreement, the government now seems to have cold feet. This has raised the ire of factions like the Lebanese Forces, which is adamant about disarming the group.
Meanwhile, a disagreement between President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on the issue of Hezbollah has become visible. In late September, the group marked the first anniversary of the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah by projecting his image onto . Salam condemned it for doing so, saying that this move was considered a private use of a public facility. However, Aoun army commander Rodolphe Haykal the National Order of the Cedar after his actions at the memorial, despite his troops being accused of not doing enough to prevent Hezbollah from lighting up the rock.
The state comes across as weak. The president and the prime minister are not in line. Aoun is worried that a clash with the group will lead to the army being broken up. Salam, on the other hand, is insisting on the issue of disarmament. The state cannot control the sparring between the different factions.
Facing Israel, Lebanon is weak. The Lebanese army is no match for the Israeli army. While Hezbollah鈥檚 arms are the reason Israel hits Lebanon, they at least create some kind of deterrence. They are a double-edged sword.
There was the threat made by Hezbollah that it would attack Israel鈥檚 Karish and Leviathan gas fields. Nasrallah threatened this several times if Lebanese maritime rights were not settled. It was in the interest of Israel to settle the issue with Lebanon and remove any pretext for the group to attack its gas fields. The threats curbed companies鈥� appetite to invest in the fields. This leverage does not exist anymore.
While Hezbollah鈥檚 arms are the reason Israel hits Lebanon, they at least create some kind of deterrence
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
Lebanon has no deterrent, no bargaining power at all, while Israel has all the leverage. Unlike Syria, which has the support of 黑料社区 and Turkiye, Lebanon is on nobody鈥檚 priority list. So, what should it do? Disarming Hezbollah by force is not an option. Not only would this result in an internal clash, but there is no guarantee the army can conduct this task. On the other hand, if the disarmament is to be conducted through negotiations, the state cannot offer guarantees to the group. Can the state guarantee that Hezbollah will not be targeted if it disarms? Not really.
The state cannot act as a bystander anymore, it should assume leadership. To start with, Aoun and Salam should quickly resolve their differences. They should agree on an action plan. They should be realistic. Hezbollah will not disarm without a political settlement. Nonstate actors like the Irish Republican Army and the PKK have disarmed after reaching a political settlement. They should have a clear action plan to discuss with Hezbollah, then with regional powers and then with the US, before entering negotiations with Israel.
The Lebanese state should seek help. Like Syria, it needs the backing of regional powers. But their backing will not come for free. The Lebanese state should have a clear roadmap. This does not involve only Hezbollah but also reforms. Nobody wants to spend their political capital and energy on a failed state. Once regional powers are convinced about supporting Lebanon, the Lebanese state can start direct negotiations with Israel. It would then have backing, some sort of leverage.
For Hezbollah to accept, it should be made clear that any agreement with Israel would have to include guarantees that the group will not be targeted and that it can continue to operate as a political party. Also, a show of strong leadership will tone down the internal quarrels. Once the different factions see there is decisiveness at the top, they will stand with the state. A show of leadership would also entice the US to reign in Israel, as Washington鈥檚 priority is stability in the region.
The ball is in the Lebanese state鈥檚 court: this is a chance for the Salam-Aoun government to prove to the Lebanese and the international community that it can lead. Today, this government is facing its most crucial test. If it fails and Lebanon faces a devastating war, it will emerge as a lame duck and no one will trust it.
- Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.