ºÚÁÏÉçÇø

North Africa is undergoing a quiet yet profound economic realignment. The region, traditionally a crossroads of civilizations, is swiftly repositioning itself as a central hub for the next chapter of global industry, fueled by the worldwide demand for critical minerals.

While sub-Saharan Africa dominates mineral production, accounting for 70 percent of the world’s cobalt and significant shares of platinum and manganese, North Africa’s power lies not in the volumes of its own reserves but in its unparalleled geographic and strategic positioning. It is an indispensable link between the mineral-rich south, the manufacturing and refining centers of Asia, and the insatiable consumer markets of Europe.

Africa today is no longer a silent partner in global trade and critical minerals dialogue but an assertive architect of the continent’s own resource destiny. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s export bans on raw cobalt, and Zimbabwe’s levies on unprocessed lithium, for instance, are some of the ways in which Africa is moving away from simple extraction to the creation of local value.

Such strategic moves create a wealth of opportunities for North Africa that are likely to be harnessed via sophisticated economic gateways already being built in the region. Thus, with an estimated $266 billion in critical mineral exports from Africa in 2024, and likely more than that in the future given accelerating demand, the logistical race to transport, process, and ship these resources is intensifying.

At present, Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria are accelerating their strategic investments in an attempt to capture this flow. Morocco’s Tanger Med port, for example, now one of the most advanced in Africa, is handling trade volumes that increasingly rival those of southern European hubs.

Simultaneously, Egypt is transforming the Suez Canal Economic Zone into a magnet for foreign capital, targeting a place in the global hydrogen market and capitalizing on its position as a maritime crossroads.

Algeria, meanwhile, is linked to Mauritania’s vast untapped potential for lithium, manganese, uranium, phosphates, and rare-earth elements via the Tindouf-Zouerate Highway infrastructure project. Algiers also remains the sole Mediterranean node of the Trans-Saharan Highway, which links six African countries that together represent more than a quarter of Africa’s total gross domestic product and population.

These developments are part of a wider infrastructure rush that includes projects such as the Trans-Maghreb highway, connecting Morocco to Egypt via Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya, as well as new road corridors designed to bind North Africa into a cohesive and efficient trade network ready for the demands of the economies of the future.

This transformation has not gone unnoticed by global powers. The US depends entirely on imports of 12 critical minerals, and outsources more than half of its supplies for another 28. Washington perceives this reliance, particularly on China, as a structural weakness, driving a search for secure alliances.

China, which processes 85 percent of the world’s critical minerals and more than 90 percent of rare earths, is entrenching its influence through direct investments in projects such as lithium operations in Mali and copper ventures in Zambia, backed by decades of strategic engagement across 44 African countries.

ºÚÁÏÉçÇø has committed $10 billion to African mining over the next five years, while the UAE is channeling capital into port and processing assets in copper-rich Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The IMF projects that Africa’s critical minerals could generate cumulative revenues of $2 trillion over the next 25 years. 

Hafed Al-Ghwell

In this contest, North Africa emerges as a strategic intersection, a zone in which all these external ambitions meet, providing access and opportunity without yet falling under the control of a single power.

For North Africa itself, the potential is immense. The International Monetary Fund projects that Africa’s critical minerals could generate cumulative revenues of $2 trillion over the next 25 years. As the facilitating region, North Africa is positioned to capture a significant portion of this value. The true prize, however, lies in moving beyond raw extraction. Currently, Africa retains a mere fraction of the total value chain. By establishing local refining operations and component manufacturing facilities, North Africa can radically increase its share of the final product value.

This ambition is not merely theoretical. The abundant solar resources in the region can power energy-intensive processing for minerals such as aluminum, for which the conversion of bauxite to the finished metal multiplies its value from about $65 a tonne to more than $2,300.

Realizing this potential, however, will require authorities to confront systemic constraints. The African Continental Free Trade Area provides a framework for integrated markets, yet its practical application remains underdeveloped so far. The potential of the agreement is undercut by costly inefficiencies, such as inadequate road, rail, and port infrastructure, which add 30 to 40 percent to the cost of intraregional trade, while a persistent annual infrastructure financing gap of $108 billion stifles progress.

Beyond the physical constraints, a patchwork of national regulations on local content, taxation, and environmental standards creates a confusing operating environment for cross-border investment. Compounding this, the immense energy demands of the mining sector, which accounts for 38 percent of global industrial energy use, face a harsh reality check in countries where electrification rates still languish.

Without a coordinated, regional strategy to harmonize policies, build interconnected energy grids, and channel investment into logistics and skills, the African Continental Free Trade Area risks becoming little more than a symbolic pact. North Africa’s potential would then be limited to facilitation, forever processing a mere fraction of the continent’s mineral wealth while the bulk of its raw materials, more than 75 percent of which are currently exported unprocessed, continue to fuel industrialization elsewhere.

The path forward demands clear-eyed recognition of the immensity of the opportunities, alongside the formidable structural challenges that persist. Africa holds vast quantities of the world’s proven critical mineral reserves, and the global demand for these minerals is projected to surge: demand for lithium is expected to grow eight-fold by 2040, for example, and demand for cobalt to double. These are not mere market trends for commodity brokers to quickly turn a profit, they represent a fundamental restructuring of global industrial supply chains.

Despite its struggles, North Africa can still position itself as a central engine of this emergent economy. This will require moving beyond merely the export of raw materials, however; the real prize lies in capturing the value-added activities of refining, processing, and manufacturing, thereby transforming the region from a transit corridor into an industrial base.

Success, therefore, hinges on a dual strategy. North African countries must aggressively lobby for the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area to help build a unified market. Concurrently, they must pursue targeted partnerships that are explicitly conditional on building local processing capacity and closing the infrastructure deficit.

Without disciplined, integrated approaches that prioritize integration and value addition, the risk remains that North Africa will merely rent out its geography and resources to others, rather than powering its own sustainable industrial future.

• Hafed Al-Ghwell is senior fellow and program director at the Stimson Center in Washington and senior fellow at the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies. X: @HafedAlGhwell