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For more than four decades, Egypt and Israel have sustained a cold peace under the historic 1979 Camp David Accords. Those agreements ended decades of war, secured Israel’s southern border and restored Egypt’s sovereignty over Sinai under limited military arrangements. Over the years, this peace has withstood many regional upheavals. Today, however, it faces a fresh test as suspicion and public accusations surge between Cairo and Tel Aviv.
With the region consumed by bloody conflicts and the Gaza war nearing the end of its second year, a war of words has erupted between Egypt and Israel. The pressing questions are obvious: Is the 1979 peace at risk? Or is this another dispute that will be managed diplomatically? The choice lies between further confrontation and preserving peace.
The Egypt-Israel peace has long been a cornerstone of Middle Eastern stability. Despite its “cold” character, the Camp David Accords delivered essential dividends: Egypt regained every inch of Sinai and received US assistance — even if limited — while Israel enjoyed a neutral southern front and a measure of regional acceptance.
Quiet security coordination persisted, especially in Sinai, where terrorist groups once operated. Over the decades, border incidents and waves of popular anger in Egypt tested this peace, yet pragmatism ultimately prevailed. Until recently, Cairo and Tel Aviv proved able to contain disputes and recommit to the treaty whenever crises flared.
Until recently, Cairo and Tel Aviv proved able to contain disputes and recommit to the treaty whenever crises flared
Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy
What distinguishes the current moment is the intersection of a grinding Gaza war with the ascent of hard-line policies in Israel’s government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s current coalition (since late 2022) is widely seen as the most right-wing in Israel’s history, a shift that has strained Israel’s external relationships — including with Egypt.
Since Netanyahu’s return to office, high-level contact has stalled: no meetings with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi have taken place and there has not even been a phone call since mid-2023. For his part, El-Sisi’s rhetoric began sharpening as the Gaza war dragged on. The Egyptian president even called Israel an “enemy” last month, signaling a collapse of personal trust.
The roots of the new crisis lie in the Gaza war — sparked by Hamas’ October 2023 attack and Israel’s ensuing, unrelenting military response — and its regional spillover. Israel’s campaign has stretched to nearly two years, caused vast humanitarian devastation and triggered strategic nightmares for neighboring Egypt. Israel’s latest declared aim of taking Gaza City and driving its population south sent alarm bells ringing in Cairo: What happens when the south becomes unlivable?
Egyptians note that Israeli officials have publicly floated coercive “relocation” ideas. Early in the war, an Israeli minister even proposed a Palestinian “state” in North Sinai — an existential red line for Egypt. Matters worsened when Netanyahu appeared with a map of “Greater Israel” that encroached on Egyptian territory and then accused Cairo of blocking the “migration” of Gazans. For Egyptians, these episodes reinforced the suspicion that Israel seeks to offload the Strip’s population into Sinai.
Israel, for its part, professes deep misgivings about Egypt’s conduct during the war. Israeli officials accuse Cairo of breaching treaty limits by building up forces in Sinai and of failing to stop weapons smuggling into Gaza. Some sources claim Bedouin networks are using new methods, even small drones, to move arms across the border.
Cairo rejects these charges outright. It denies any breach of the treaty or hostile intent. Its military presence in Sinai, it says, is purely defensive — aimed at counterterrorism and border security — and coordinated under the peace treaty’s mechanisms. As for smuggling, Egyptian officials call the claims “evidence-free myths,” pointing to the Multinational Force and Observers, which monitors compliance and has reported no such violations.
Treaties can erode in practice — through reduced cooperation, incremental breaches and lost trust
Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy
From Egypt’s perspective, Israel is manufacturing a political crisis — both to distract from its own failures in Gaza and to lay the groundwork for maximalist aims such as reoccupying the Philadelphi Corridor.
Neither side has signaled an intent to scrap the treaty, which remains vital to both: Egypt reiterates its commitment and Israel understands the accord’s centrality to its security doctrine. The danger, however, does not require formal abrogation. Treaties can erode in practice — through reduced cooperation, incremental breaches and lost trust.
Israel argues Egypt’s Sinai deployments exceed treaty limits. It has raised the issue with Washington and has reportedly threatened to cut gas supplies to Egypt. Cairo, in turn, sees Israel as the party undermining the treaty’s spirit, pointing to its expanded military footprint up to the Gaza-Sinai border. Reports suggest Egypt has quietly frozen certain intelligence and security channels in protest at Israel’s disregard for Egypt’s core interests. Tensions grew further as Israel widened the theater of its security operations abroad — such as the targeted strike in Doha — fueling Egyptian fears of similar actions nearer to home.
Even so, the prospect of a direct Egypt–Israel war remains remote. Egypt sees no interest in that path as it works to stabilize its internal front and navigate economic headwinds. Israel, meanwhile, is mired in Gaza. Both sides understand that a military confrontation would be disastrous. The real risk lies in miscalculation — a spiral of suspicion and rhetoric in a climate of minimal leader-to-leader contact.
Even during the political upheavals since 2011, including Gaza conflicts and leadership changes in Egypt, the treaty held.
The Gaza war has hardened rhetoric and etched opposing red lines: Egypt rejects any displacement into Sinai, while Israel refuses limits on its campaign against Hamas. This is a serious but manageable crisis that threatens the quality of peace since 1979. Protecting that peace depends on reconciling Egypt’s stance on displacement with Israel’s demand to prevent Hamas’ rearmament, with the Palestinian issue remaining central.
- Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy has covered conflicts worldwide. X: @ALMenawy