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When the international community expressed its outrage at Israel’s attack on Doha this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not adopt a conciliatory position with regards to Qatar, the mediator that could bring about the release of the hostages in Gaza. On the contrary, he doubled down on his belligerent position and stated that further strikes will target any country that hosts Hamas leaders.

Also, faced with Western states’  of Palestine at the UN General Assembly this week, he is showing even more arrogance and defiance by threatening to annex the West Bank. However, as unlikely as it may seem, Israeli arrogance and belligerence may offer a ray of light for the Palestinians.

As much as our hearts weep for Palestine and Gaza, we need to be realistic. States act only when they are threatened. States are rational actors; they do not act for a cause. They act when their security is at stake. Causes are usually used to sell the fight to the masses. Though there is a genocide, states will not mobilize to defend the Palestinians if this mobilization is likely to incur risks for themselves. Any mobilization to help the Palestinians would incur big risks. No one wants to upset the US, the world’s superpower. For now, despite growing popular discontent, America’s policy position has not changed: unwavering support for Israel.

Of course, there is a popular movement. There have been all sorts of boycotts. However, this will not change the mind of Israel. Israel is ready to sacrifice. It knows it has lost its reputation, likely forever. Hence, it has nothing to safeguard. Netanyahu has  of Israel’s international isolation, telling his audience that they are set to become a “super Sparta” and that they need to be self-sufficient. He is acknowledging that Israel has lost its “hasbara” (propaganda) battle. He does not care anymore. Though this will inflict a lot of pain and death on Palestinians, Israel will soon become the main casualty of this attitude.

Though this will inflict a lot of pain and death on Palestinians, Israel will soon become the main casualty of this attitude

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Israel wants to push Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt. And it is actively engaging with the Kurds and Druze in Syria, which is a major security concern for Turkiye.

Israel this month reportedly delivered a  integrated air defense system to Cyprus. This system includes radar that can monitor up to a range of 460 km, meaning it can surveil deep into Turkish airspace. The package also includes missiles with a 150 km range, meaning they can target Turkish territory. This is a direct threat to Turkiye. To add to Ankara’s concerns, before the delivery of the Barak MX to Cyprus, Shay Gal, a former vice president of external relations at Israel Aerospace Industries, which manufactures the system, wrote a provocative article in which he bluntly said that Israel should consider helping “liberate” northern Cyprus from Turkish forces.

Israel wants a divided region. It wants weak states divided on an ethnic and sectarian basis. It wants chaos. Netanyahu has already spoken about reshaping the Middle East. He wants small, weak states fighting among themselves, with Israel establishing itself as the reference. Turkiye knows that the Kurdish YPG and the military installations on Cyprus are only a manifestation of the threat. The real threat comes from Israel, which does not want any strong states in the region. Once those states feel the heat, they will mobilize.

Israeli arrogance has crossed all limits, but this is a blessing in disguise for the Palestinians. Israel does not listen to anyone. It has created too many enemies. It is following a path along which retracing its steps will be difficult. What can Israel do now? Stop the war and withdraw from Gaza? This would mean the political end of Netanyahu.

Israel has created too many enemies. It is following a path along which retracing its steps will be difficult

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

To add to that, Netanyahu has raised the stakes. It is difficult for him to back down now. He knows he is living on borrowed time. He is seeking to change the parameters of regional politics before his time is up. This is a risky game. However, he is banking on US support.

But the apparently unwavering American support for Israel is far more fragile than it seems. President Donald Trump  this month that the pro-Israel lobby had lost its influence in US politics. “Israel was the strongest lobby I’ve ever seen. They had total control over Congress, and now they don’t,” he said. Israel has lost the Democrats and the independents and the Republicans are on the way. Prominent figures on the right, including Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Steve Bannon, are now criticizing Israel.

Public opinion is changing and policy will change with it. However, the Israeli leaders are too arrogant to notice this. This is why Netanyahu’s gambit is probably a losing one. Soon, he will make a faux pas and realize that he does not have enough support to protect himself. If he attacks Turkiye, a NATO country, would the West stand with Israel? That is what Israeli arrogance is counting on. At some point, Israel will be left alone to face all the enemies it has created. And, like Sparta, it will be defeated by its own arrogance.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.