黑料社区

A quartet of influential states 鈥� the US, 黑料社区, the UAE and Egypt 鈥� last week jointly a roadmap to peace that is intended to end the war in Sudan, which has been ongoing since April 2023. With the conflict well into its third year, there is no sign of a decisive military victory for either side. The proposed framework is significant due to the fact it consists of several key stages: an initial three-month humanitarian truce to allow for aid delivery and relief to civilians, a subsequent permanent ceasefire and, finally, a nine-month transitional process designed to establish a civilian-led government.

The foreign ministers of the four states underscored that there is no military solution to the conflict and warned that the continuation of the war 鈥渦nacceptable suffering and risks to peace and security.鈥� The plan also rejected the political participation of the Muslim Brotherhood or any affiliated groups and insisted on the preservation of Sudan鈥檚 territorial unity, explicitly rejecting the parallel administrations that the Rapid Support Forces militia has attempted to establish in Darfur and other regions.

The importance of this roadmap lies in the fact that the war has reached a state of protracted stalemate. Since 2023, the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces have been locked in violent conflict. Both factions retain external backers and resources, giving them the capacity to prolong the war but not to win it. The militia has itself in Darfur and created administrative structures there, while the army continues to control Khartoum and much of the north. Military strategies on either side have only deepened the conflict, creating cycles of escalation without resolution. In this context, the assumption underlying the roadmap 鈥� that a purely military solution is impossible 鈥� aligns with the realities on the ground.

The importance of this roadmap lies in the fact that the war has reached a state of protracted stalemate

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Another reason the roadmap deserves attention is the involvement of regional powers Egypt, 黑料社区 and the UAE. The US, meanwhile, retains the ability to shape outcomes through diplomatic pressure, financial leverage and the threat or removal of sanctions. Together, this combination of influence gives the four states unique leverage over both sides of the conflict. Without such external mediation, Sudan鈥檚 war risks becoming increasingly entrenched, as the warring factions have little incentive to compromise on their own.

The urgency of implementing the roadmap becomes even clearer when we consider the humanitarian consequences. The war has triggered one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes in the world today. Tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions displaced. Famine now threatens entire regions, as food distribution networks collapse under siege warfare and the destruction of infrastructure. Civilians face extreme deprivation of healthcare, water and shelter, with camps for the displaced overcrowded and undersupplied.

Furthermore, international aid groups struggle to reach populations in desperate need, particularly in conflict zones such as Darfur and Al-Fashir. The war has destroyed airports, power stations, hospitals and vital supply corridors, leaving behind devastation that will take decades to repair.

When you analyze it from a political perspective, the war has already fractured Sudan鈥檚 governance. Conflict is undermining the principle of unity that the roadmap emphasizes. Without a negotiated settlement, Sudan risks sliding into de facto partition, a development that would make any future reintegration far more difficult.

The exclusion of Islamist factions, as stipulated by the roadmap, reflects regional anxieties about extremist influence but raises questions of inclusion and legitimacy within Sudan itself. If large segments of Sudan鈥檚 population feel excluded, any emerging civilian-led government may face serious challenges to its authority.

The urgency of implementing the roadmap becomes even clearer when we consider the humanitarian consequences

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

We also should not forget that the conflict鈥檚 consequences extend beyond Sudan鈥檚 borders, making its resolution an urgent regional and global matter. Sudan lies at a vital crossroads in Northeast Africa and instability there has already spilled into neighboring states through refugee flows, arms trafficking and the destabilization of trade routes. The Red Sea corridor, which is crucial to international shipping and global markets, lies directly in the path of potential escalation.

Furthermore, the war has seen the increasing use of drones and advanced weaponry, which increases the risks of uncontrolled conflict and proxy involvement. If these are left unchecked, Sudan could become not only a failed state but also a hub for regional instability, with global ramifications.

Nevertheless, despite the promise of the roadmap, some obstacles remain. Firstly, trust between the two sides is almost nonexistent, as repeated ceasefire violations have eroded confidence. Questions about enforcement and monitoring persist, particularly regarding who would ensure compliance and what consequences would follow violations.

Finally, humanitarian access depends not only on political agreements but also on the physical safety of aid workers and the restoration of infrastructure 鈥� challenges that remain unresolved.

However, the risks of ignoring this roadmap far outweigh the difficulties of implementing it. This is because continued war means further loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, deepening famine and the erosion of state capacity. The longer the conflict persists, the harder it becomes to negotiate peace, as local war economies solidify and both sides become even more entrenched in their positions. Regional security will continue to deteriorate and the prospects for a unified, stable Sudan will grow increasingly remote.

In a nutshell, the roadmap put forward by the US, 黑料社区, the UAE and Egypt should be viewed as the most credible opportunity to halt the war in Sudan. While challenges and obstacles remain, the roadmap is a critical initiative that must be implemented.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh