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KARACHI: Pakistan’s textile manufacturers expect cotton imports to surge to as much as $3 billion this year, double last year’s bill, after floods devastated key growing areas in Punjab and now threaten Sindh, industry officials and analysts said.

The monsoon deluges, which have already swamped central Punjab, the nation’s breadbasket, are moving south toward Sindh, the country’s second-largest cotton belt, raising fears that further damage to fields will deepen losses in the days ahead. Agriculture makes up nearly a quarter of GDP and employs almost half of the labor force, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

“Probably, our cotton import can exceed $2.5 to $3 billion this year alone,” said Kamran Arshad, chairman of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), adding that millers imported $1.5 billion worth of cotton last year from Brazil, the United States, Africa and Australia.

Arshad said cotton-growing areas in central Punjab such as Vehari, Mailsi, Chichawatni and Burewala had been “negatively affected,” while some genetically modified Bt cotton crops were also under water. 

“This can lead to a crisis, because a lot of people will be losing their livelihoods. Their crops will be at stake,” he said, urging the government to declare a national emergency and curb luxury imports to conserve foreign exchange.

He also blamed record water releases from upstream India for compounding the devastation. Under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, India controls the eastern rivers but is required to notify Pakistan of dam discharges that can cause downstream flooding.

Flood damage has also undermined projections for Pakistan’s top export industry, which earned $18 billion last year.

“We were projecting a growth in textile exports from $18 billion to up to $20 billion in the coming year, but I don’t think that level will be achieved because of the unavailability of cotton and the higher cost of production,” said Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive of Arif Habib Commodities.

He estimated the industry could face a $6 billion hit, including about $4 billion in additional import costs and $2 billion in lost export potential. “This flood will have a devastating impact not only on cotton output but the exchange rate will equally be impacted,” Mehanti said.

PRODUCTION LOSSES

Analysts warned Pakistan may lose up to five million bales from this year’s 10.2 million bale production target, with overall output falling below last year’s seven million.

“The government’s target to produce 5.5 million bales in Punjab does not seem achievable now … cotton output may not exceed 4.5 million bales if flooding increases,” said Naseem Usman, chairman of the Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum.

Official data confirm the downturn. Pakistan’s cotton production as of Aug. 15 had already contracted by more than 17 percent to 887,401 bales, compared with 1.1 million a year earlier, according to a Sept. 2 report by the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee.

Usman said consumption would remain higher than domestic output, forcing Pakistan to rely heavily on imports that could exceed $2 billion, including raw cotton, seed and oil for animal feed.

PESHAWAR: A suspected militant commander wanted for bomb attacks and targeted killings of policemen was killed on Wednesday in an intelligence-based operation in northwest Pakistan, police said.

The Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) launched the raid in Nawar Khel, Lakki Marwat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, after intelligence indicated suspected militant Kifayatullah, alias Kifayati, was hiding in a compound and plotting new assaults.

Lakki Marwat, on the edge of Pakistan’s tribal belt bordering Afghanistan, has seen frequent assaults by Pakistani Taliban militants, known as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

“The police and CTD teams launched the operation under the supervision of District Police Officer Nazir Khan,” police said in a statement. 

“During the raid, the militants opened fire on the police party and injured Constable Rizwan. The police retaliated bravely and an intense exchange of fire ensued.”

Police said a Kalashnikov rifle and ammunition were recovered from the suspect, while a search and clearance operation was ongoing.

The raid came a day after six Pakistani security personnel and six militants were killed in an hours-long gunbattle at a paramilitary compound in Bannu district, underscoring the scale of violence sweeping Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

At least 75 policemen were killed in ambushes and targeted attacks in the province last year, according to police data. 

Earlier on Wednesday, six passengers were shot dead by gunmen in Kurram district, another flashpoint near the Afghan border where sectarian violence has flared in recent months.

Militant attacks across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have surged since November 2022, when a fragile truce between the TTP and the Pakistani government collapsed. 

Islamabad has accused Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers of sheltering Pakistani militants and India of backing insurgents in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, allegations both Kabul and New Delhi deny.