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Israel’s war on Palestinians, which has focused on the genocide in Gaza for almost two years, has also inevitably been escalating in the West Bank. Be in no doubt that, including Jerusalem, this is for the “Greater Israel” fanatics, the radioactive core of the conflict. Gaza is designated for destruction and has no biblical resonance.
This is why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich pressing ahead with the E1 settlement plan will be the sweetest music to the ears of their base. For around three decades since the days of Yitzhak Rabin, this plan has been their fervent dream, perhaps only bettered for some by visions of replacing Al-Aqsa with a rebuilt Jewish temple.
The E1 project has always run into determined international opposition, including from the US. President George W. Bush forced Ariel Sharon to ditch the plan and Barack Obama did the same with Netanyahu in 2012. E1 was postponed but, crucially, never canceled.
Why now? Above all, the major international powers have shown utter spinelessness in failing to prevent the genocide in Gaza, so Israeli ministers see no obstacle to going ahead. What will the Europeans do? The Trump administration is settler-friendly and raises zero objections. Worse, a US State Department spokesperson argued that E1 would help the situation, saying: “A stable West Bank keeps Israel secure and is in line with this administration’s goal to achieve peace in the region.”
This is a doomsday settlement for those who crave a two-state solution that includes a viable Palestinian state
Chris Doyle
Some think this was purely a reaction to France, the UK and Canada announcing their intention to recognize the state of Palestine. But it was more just taking advantage of an opportunity. It was European weakness that became the turning point. That E1 will, in the words of Smotrich, “bury the idea of a Palestinian state” is a huge bonus.
The proof is in the reaction. Settlers will be laughing at the chorus of protests and stiffly worded press releases. Twenty-one foreign ministers added their names to a statement condemning the move. The UK summoned the Israeli ambassador. All this might as well have been an embossed invitation to Israel to go straight ahead. Press releases simply do not cut it.
For years, many states, especially those in Europe, warned of grave consequences if Israel went ahead with E1. Only sanctions will shift the dial. The trouble is that, if this does not happen, it will harden the contempt for Europe — and not just inside Israel. Netanyahu would see this as European red lines being utter fiction and international law as a joke. He would be correct.
Cynics might ask why one settlement plan would make such a difference? After all, there are more than 250 settlements and several have been cities for years. With over 750,000 units already built, why would a few thousand more matter?
This is a doomsday settlement for those who crave a two-state solution that includes a viable Palestinian state. It is not the only one, but arguably the most destructive. It will carve the West Bank into two, north and south, while at the same time disconnecting East Jerusalem from the Palestinian hinterland in the West Bank, thereby ensuring there can be no Palestinian capital in Jerusalem.
Do not forget that this fragmentation affects Palestinians only. Israelis, including settlers, will experience even greater contiguity in the illegal settlement infrastructure. The regime of apartheid — systematic discrimination against Palestinians — will only intensify.
The signs are that the lightning-fast approval process will be followed by speedy tender and construction processes
Chris Doyle
One element of this horror will be the further forced displacement of Palestinians. For decades, I have been visiting herding communities living under the shadow of E1. International dignitaries have visited and made solemn pledges about safeguarding their futures. The UN calculates that about 18 such communities are under direct threat from E1, with settler groups escalating the violence against them to facilitate the dispossession.
It is also another flagrant breach of international law. This includes UN Security Council Resolution 2334. Will those sponsoring and pushing this be sanctioned and have arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court? The record does not lead to optimism.
Will it go ahead? It is hard to see what will stop this settler juggernaut. European states are still too scared of upsetting Donald Trump. If Netanyahu were to back off now, he would certainly lose Itamar Ben-Gvir and Smotrich’s support, threatening his coalition.
But the signs are that the lightning-fast approval process will be followed by speedy tender and construction processes. Building could start in months. The likes of Smotrich will leave no stone unturned to push for this.
Where does this leave the political processes? Reversing E1 would not be impossible but it would be hugely unlikely. It would leave an even more clear-cut one-state reality, with Israel overseeing its apartheid regime. What was once a rural, agricultural Palestinian society would be concentrated into ever more crowded urban slums, their former lands seized by their settler overlords. Palestinians will not have the vote, nor will their rights be honored. Those allowed to remain would do so as resident aliens subject to the agreement of the Israeli authorities. They probably would not even have a passport, let alone citizenship. But just like in Gaza, Israel will pressure many to leave permanently.
- Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech