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This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina that dominated headlines in the first half of the 1990s. Three decades later, the Balkans, located in southeastern Europe, remains the primary area of unfinished business for Euro-Atlantic integration.

While some countries in the region have joined major Western institutions such as the EU and NATO, others remain outside the fold. Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo are not part of either the EU or NATO. Meanwhile, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania are NATO members, but are still waiting on EU membership. In recent years, little progress has been made in advancing their accession prospects.
As a result, the region continues to represent a source of instability not just for Europe, but also for the broader transatlantic community. Apart from Ukraine, no other region poses a more persistent geopolitical challenge for Europe.

This is not just a European problem. Following the violent wars of the 1990s that accompanied the breakup of Yugoslavia, the US played a decisive role in helping stabilize the Balkans — through peacekeeping forces, sustained diplomatic engagement, and eventually the Dayton Agreement itself. At the time, Washington recognized that instability in the Balkans could quickly spiral into broader conflict.

Today, however, both the US and Europe appear unwilling — or perhaps unable — to engage seriously in the region. The lack of strategic attention has created a vacuum.

This should be cause for concern. Much of Europe’s instability over the past century has originated in the Balkans. The First World War began with an assassination in Sarajevo. In the early years of the Second World War, the region played a pivotal role as Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy competed for influence. And in the 1990s, ethnic and religious violence killed hundreds of thousands, many of them civilians, across Bosnia, Croatia, and Kosovo.

Unfortunately, the challenges in the region are far from resolved.

Today, Serbia arguably presents the greatest destabilizing potential in the region. Serbian leaders, especially President Aleksandar Vucic, often invoke the idea of a “Serbian world.” This concept suggests that ethnic Serbs living outside Serbia’s modern borders, such as in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Montenegro, deserve a special status or even direct protection from Belgrade.

This mindset has dangerous implications for the region’s fragile peace. Bosnia and Herzegovina, with its complex internal structure and the Serb-dominated entity of Republika Srpska, are particularly vulnerable. Kosovo, too, continues to face periodic flare-ups. Montenegro, though more stable, has seen political turmoil in recent years that sometimes taps into the same ethnic divisions.

The 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement should be a moment for reflection, but also for renewed commitment.

Luke Coffey

Serbia’s assertiveness has also opened the door to increased involvement by Russia and China. Beijing’s role is largely economic, focused on infrastructure and energy. Moscow has actively exploited ethnic tensions and political divisions to distract Western policymakers and prevent further Euro-Atlantic integration.

One of the reasons the Balkans remain such a challenge is the lack of credible, sustained effort by NATO and the EU to bring the remaining countries into the Euro-Atlantic community. After years — sometimes decades — of vague promises about eventual membership, public frustration is mounting. This creates fertile ground for disinformation, resentment, and foreign meddling.

It is time for the West to re-engage meaningfully in the Balkans. NATO and the EU should craft clear strategies and realistic roadmaps for eventual accession tailored to each country’s unique circumstances. Policymakers must restore credibility to the idea that integration is possible, not merely aspirational.

And whether or not President Donald Trump likes it, the US will have a role to play — as it has since the 1990s. In fact, his first administration made modest but real progress in the region. One major accomplishment was brokering the partial normalization agreement between Serbia and Kosovo under the so-called Washington Agreement in 2020.

Another significant achievement was the resolution of the long-standing name dispute between Greece and North Macedonia, paving the way for the latter’s accession to NATO. This, combined with Montenegro’s NATO membership in 2017, marked a major expansion of the alliance in the Western Balkans during Trump’s first term — one that enhanced regional security and reduced space for Russian influence.

Trump, now back in the Oval Office, has made global diplomacy a core theme of his second term. He has shown interest in brokering ceasefires and peace deals in conflicts from Southeast Asia to Central Africa. The Balkans should be on that list. There is no reason why the US, working with European allies, cannot convene a new round of high-level diplomacy aimed at resolving some of the region’s most pressing disputes, especially between Serbia and Kosovo, and within Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement should be a moment for reflection, but also for renewed commitment. The success of Dayton was never supposed to be the end of the story. It was meant to be the beginning of a longer process of political normalization, economic development, and Euro-Atlantic integration.

Sadly, that process has stalled. But it is not too late to finish the job.

As Washington, Brussels, and London remain understandably focused on Ukraine, they must not ignore another part of Europe with a long history of instability — and vast untapped potential. A stable, secure, and integrated Balkans would strengthen the entire Euro-Atlantic community. It would also send a powerful message to adversaries that Europe is united, resilient, and committed to completing the work it began 30 years ago in Dayton.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey