LONDON: Rubble in Gaza caused by Israeli bombardment could cause more than 90,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, a study has suggested.
Research using open-source data published in the journal Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability suggested that about 39 million tonnes of concrete debris had been created between the start of the war in October 2023 to December a year later.
It added that 2.1 million truck journeys spanning a total of 29.5 million km would be needed to move it, generating about 66,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.
Researchers at the universities of Oxford and Edinburgh based their findings on two scenarios, one which assumed 80 percent of the debris was viable for crushing, which with a fleet of 50 industrial machines would take more than half a year and add a further 2,976 tonnes of CO2 emissions.
Using the same number of local, smaller crushers could take up to 37 years to complete the task, and generate 25,149 tonnes.
The longer the task took, the researchers said, the more additional emissions would be produced, adding that the model did not account for additional emissions caused by other substances left in the enclave such as asbestos, as well as unexploded ordnance.
It is believed that about 90 percent of homes in Gaza, as well as a significant proportion of its infrastructure, have been destroyed by Israeli strikes.
“The CO2 emissions from clearing and processing the rubble may seem small compared to the total climate cost of the destruction in Gaza, but our micro-focus unpacks the labor and work required to even begin the process of reconstruction,” said Samer Abdelnour, the study’s lead author and senior lecturer in strategic management at the University of Edinburgh Business School.
“While filling the military emissions gap is important, our work can also support Palestinian policymakers, civil engineers, planners and other workers on the ground who are determined to reclaim what was lost, stay on the land and rebuild.”
Nicholas Roy, a statistical science student at Oxford University and co-author of the study, said: “Looking ahead, finer spatial and temporal resolution of satellite images, advances in deep learning for building and damage classification, and methods that integrate information from different perspectives — such as street-level cellphone footage and top-down satellite images — open new opportunities to estimate military emissions across different scopes and better understand the true climate cost of war.”
The carbon footprint of global military activity is estimated at about 5.5 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions — more than civil aviation and international shipping combined. The Gulf region in particular is uniquely vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
Ben Neimark, a senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London investigating the climate impact of Israeli military activity, told The Guardian: “The methodological focus on debris is cutting-edge work, highlighting often-missed environmental damage left by militaries after the war is over. It provides a fresh look at the daily images of bombed-out buildings and rubble from Gaza, rather than seeing them as longer-term climate impacts of war.”
In June, Neimark’s work estimated that the impacts of Israel’s war in Gaza could release more than 31 million tonnes of CO2.
Stuart Parkinson, executive director of Scientists for Global Responsibility, told The Guardian: “Militaries and war are large and hidden contributors to the climate crisis … it is important to include the full range of activities from production of the military equipment to fuel use during warfighting, from the damage to carbon stores like forests to cleanup efforts and reconstruction following the end of the war. This study adds to this bigger picture of war-related emissions.”
