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On the eve of Bastille Day, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a major strengthening of France’s defense forces, stressing the need for the country to become the world’s leading military power, capable of acting independently amid mounting global threats. At the core of this pivot lies a stark admission: France is falling behind.

While Russia and China are rapidly advancing in emerging technologies, ranging from artificial intelligence and drone warfare to space, cyber and quantum capabilities, France currently maintains its defense spending at about 2 percent of gross domestic product, well below NATO’s new 3.5 percent benchmark. However, it remains the world’s second-largest arms exporter, holding 9.6 percent of the global market share, a position largely sustained by strong demand from its NATO allies and Eastern European partners.

Now, Macron has committed to an unprecedented budgetary increase. An additional €6.5 billion ($7.5 billion) will be injected into defense spending over the next two years, bringing the total to €64 billion in 2027, double what the military received when Macron first entered office in 2017. This surge follows a scale-up in production of radars, Mistral and Aster missiles, Caesar howitzers and Rafale fighter jets.

For France’s strategic elite, this investment is also political. Chief of Defense Staff Gen. Thierry Burkhard recently declared France to be Moscow’s priority target. And Macron is betting on a renewed defense consensus to deflect criticism of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s contentious austerity plan, which is aimed at recovering €40 billion.

This year’s Bastille Day parade showcased France’s heightened military ambitions with a broader array of weaponry and troops

Zaid M. Belbagi

The message was on full display during this year’s Bastille Day military parade, which showcased France’s heightened military ambitions with a broader array of weaponry and troops. The parade also underscored European solidarity, as it featured Swiss F/A-18s and Belgian F-16s flying alongside French forces. The message was clear: European airpower must be interoperable, united and ready.

France’s 2025 National Strategic Review echoes this vision, calling for a “wartime economy” and greater European defense sovereignty, particularly through joint procurement and production funding within the European Defence Technology Industrial Base. As outlined in the March 2025 European Defence White Paper, France and Germany aim to lead an EU-wide rearmament push.

Shared investment in scalable capabilities is designed to optimize both cost-efficiency and industrial output. Landmark projects like the French-German Future Combat Air System fighter program and the Main Ground Combat System tank initiative have now been joined by German-British collaborations on Boxer armored vehicles and Typhoon jets, offering a glimpse into the kind of coordinated military-industrial momentum that Europe’s defense ambitions increasingly rely on.

Yet this internal consolidation has come with geopolitical trade-offs. While France maintains its strategic foothold in Djibouti, it has scaled back its military footprint across Africa under Macron, having officially withdrawn from its posts in Senegal this month, alongside earlier departures from Ivory Coast, Gabon, Chad and Niger. These exits reflect both waning French influence and the rise of anti-French sentiment driven by stronger demands for national sovereignty across the continent.

In response, Paris is shifting its focus eastward. The Middle East and North Africa region now forms the southern flank of Europe’s security arc, a strategic frontier less shaped by Washington’s hand and increasingly central to European defense planning. France, like Germany and the UK, has moved to deepen ties across the Gulf and North Africa. Today, it conducts regular joint exercises and maintains close counterterrorism cooperation with the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan, Egypt and Morocco.

Since 2009, France has maintained a robust military presence in the UAE, running air, naval and land bases. Abu Dhabi’s €16 billion acquisition of 80 Rafale aircraft from Dassault Aviation in 2021 marked a significant strengthening of this partnership. The deal elevated their industrial cooperation and expanded France’s deployment in the region, with 800 troops supporting, among other things, training initiatives on Emirati soil.

Diplomatic activity has intensified during Macron’s second term. In December last year, the French president made a state visit to Riyadh, following the emir of Qatar’s official visit to Paris in February 2024. Just last month, Paris hosted the third France-Qatar Strategic Dialogue, a forum that reaffirmed the two nations’ mutual commitment to deeper defense and security cooperation.

These developments signal a decisive reorientation of France’s security architecture toward the Mediterranean arc

Zaid M. Belbagi

France’s National Strategic Review confirms plans to further reinforce partnerships with key MENA states, including Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, ��������, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain. These countries are no longer regarded merely as clients but increasingly as co-producers of regional stability. In a notable example, Macron welcomed UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan to Paris in February for a working dinner centered on joint projects valued at approximately €50 billion. Among these, Emirati artificial intelligence companies are set to build Europe’s largest AI campus in France, anchored by a data center with a capacity of up to 1 gigawatt.

France’s maritime security initiatives are also expanding. Since February 2024, Paris has led Operation Aspides, the EU’s naval mission protecting Red Sea shipping routes from Houthi attacks. France also plays a critical role in the Mediterranean, enforcing the arms embargo on Libya under the EU’s Operation Irini and carrying out joint naval maneuvers with Egypt and Morocco. While advancing its Euro-MENA posture, Paris continues to underline the importance of strategic ties with both the US and Israel, recognizing their central roles in shaping the region’s defense dynamics.

As such, these developments signal a decisive reorientation of France’s security architecture toward the Mediterranean arc. As Russian aggression intensifies and tensions escalate across the Middle East, especially involving Iran, France is actively working to shape a Euro-MENA security order.

In this emerging landscape, partners like Morocco, Jordan, Egypt, the UAE and Qatar are no longer seen simply as arms buyers. They are becoming equal stakeholders in a shared pursuit of strategic autonomy, shaped by joint production, collective deterrence and a more balanced diplomatic order.

Amid Germany’s rearmament and France’s assertive defense agenda, Europe is stepping up as a rising force in the global defense market. This shift not only opens new avenues for MENA countries to deepen security and defense partnerships with European powers, but also raises important questions about the future of their long-standing cooperation with global heavyweights like the US, China and Russia — countries that have long held dominant military footprints in the region. As the balance of power evolves, so too does the shape of strategic alliances across the Middle East.

• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council. X: @Moulay_Zaid