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ISLAMABAD: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in its latest report on Tuesday that Pakistan’s average inflation is expected to rise to 6 percent during fiscal year 2026, reflecting the impact of flood-related supply chain disruptions and recent increase in gas tariffs on prices.

Heavy monsoon rains and excess water released from dams in India triggered floods in Pakistan’s eastern Punjab province, also known as its breadbasket province, since late August. Over 2.5 million people were evacuated to safer locations as thousands of acres of farmland were inundated with floodwaters. Experts warned of looming food shortages and price hikes due to the deluges.

In July, Pakistan’s government revised gas prices for the fiscal year 2025-26 and okayed a 50 percent increase in fixed charges for domestic consumers. The move was in line with Pakistan’s structural benchmarks agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), including rationalization of captive power tariffs and a shift from subsidies to direct, targeted support for low-income consumers.

“Average inflation is projected to increase to 6.0 percent in FY2026, reflecting the impact of flood-related supply chain disruptions on food prices and the increase in gas tariffs,” the ABD said in a report. “In response, the central bank is expected to adopt a cautious approach to easing monetary policy to stabilize inflation within its medium-term target range of 5 percent–7 percent.”

The bank said Pakistan’s economic activity is expected to strengthen in FY2026, supported by improved external buffers and renewed business confidence following the US-Pakistan trade agreement.

“However, the damage caused to infrastructure and farmland by the recent floods may weigh on growth,” it warned. “Recovery and rehabilitation efforts, bolstered by fiscal incentives for the construction sector announced in the FY2026 budget, are expected to partially offset the adverse impact.”

Citing the ‘Asian Development Outlook for September 2025,’ the ADB’s annual flagship economic publication, the bank said Pakistan’s growth is projected to continue in the medium term, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast at 3.0 percent in FY2026, as macroeconomic stability deepens through sustained reforms addressing structural vulnerabilities.

It noted that Pakistan’s economic reform has progressed “considerably” under the IMF’s $7 billion Extended Fund Facility arrangement which began in October last year.

“Policy consistency and climate resilience remain vital to maintaining the growth momentum. Downside risks to the outlook remain high,” the ADB stressed.

KARACHI: When former Saudi Airlines flight attendant Asiya Rizvi opened a restaurant in Karachi’s upscale Defense neighborhood earlier this year, she brought not only her mother’s Mughlai recipes but also a trove of dishes she discovered during 15 years of flying with colleagues from around the world.

The result is Café 1947, an eatery that blends food with history and is co-owned by two neurodivergent children: Rizvi’s 12-year-old son, Shabbar Ali, who has Down syndrome, and her relative’s son, Raza Shah, who is autistic.

Rizvi, who worked as cabin crew from 1999 to 2014 and flew with colleagues from 51 nationalities, said she often exchanged food and stories with women from different cultures.

“We used to stay with each other for a week or a couple of days,” she told Arab News. “We used to talk about food, what to cook, what to eat. We used to try each other’s food.”

Those exchanges inspired her to design a rotating seven-day menu: Afghan cuisine on Mondays, Chinese on Tuesdays, Pakistani on Wednesdays, Mughlai on Thursdays, Palestinian on Fridays and Middle Eastern and fusion dishes on weekends.

Rizvi said she left her aviation career to care for her son, remained associated with the real estate industry and eventually opened the restaurant in May this year.

Named Café 1947 by S&R — after the initials of the two children — it reflects her personal journey and her mission to build a future for her son.

“I have done this for him,” she said of her son, who helps in the kitchen. “I want Shabbar to be a chef, a baker. The business idea came from Shabbar. If Allah has blessed you with a special child, you have to take special care of them.”

Her husband, Syed Asad Ali, a banker, also vouched for the boy’s passion.

“He stays in the kitchen… He is taking a lot of interest in baking particularly.”

The café’s name is also deliberate.

“We are giving a cultural history with food. So, we thought its name should have a historical aspect. That’s why we selected Café 1947,” Ali said, noting it referred to the year of Pakistan’s independence.

FLAVORED STORIES

The storytelling does not end with the menu. Rizvi’s elder daughter, Aemal Zahra, works part-time, explaining the origins of dishes to diners.

“My main role is helping out in the kitchen and when guests come, because our dishes are quite unique, I explain their history and their taste profile to our customers,” she said, before introducing Musakhan Chicken, a Palestinian dish traditionally cooked during the olive harvest.

“Its main ingredient is olive oil,” she told the diners. “The flavor has a lot of cinnamon, black pepper, sumac and allspice. It is very rustic and it is covered with caramelized onions.”

For Rizvi, Palestine carries special significance.

“We should raise the issue of Palestine from every platform. We decided to make their national dish a part of our cuisine,” she said, adding that proceeds from some dishes are donated to humanitarian causes.

HOMEMADE TOUCH

Customers say the café offers both taste and authenticity.

“Today we have come here since I wanted to eat Chapli Kabab,” said Adnan Hussain, a textile businessman. “It’s amazing. I have never eaten such delicious Chapli Kabab.”

He also tried Musakhan Chicken after Zahra explained its history.

“It’s a new experience. It’s a new dish. It’s a new flavor,” he said.

Another visitor, Mubeen Khurram, praised the “homemade feel.”

“The food was very delicious,” he said. “The rotating menu makes you want to come again. Tomorrow you’ll get a different experience.”

Rizvi acknowledges small adjustments are sometimes made for local palates.

“When food travels, there is variation,” she said, noting that Afghan and Arab dishes are spiced up to suit Pakistani tastes.