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In recent years, hardly a week has gone by without a visit or announcement involving a country in Central Asia or the South Caucasus and a Gulf state. The pace of engagement between these regions is accelerating across diplomacy, business and security.

Last week, the UAE’s AD Ports Group and Kazakhstan Railways announced the launch of operations for GulfLink, a joint venture with long-term ambitions in the Central Asian logistics landscape. Earlier this year, Uzbekistan introduced a visa-free regime for Gulf nationals, further deepening regional ties. On the political front, Kazakhstan has hosted a long-running Syrian peace dialogue. Meanwhile, the UAE is now taking on one of the most sensitive issues in the South Caucasus: hosting peace talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders.

This stronger engagement is a sign of greater involvement by Gulf countries and the increased agency of powers in both regions. There is no doubt that the South Caucasus and Central Asia have been zones of great Russian political influence. Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, Russia has been able to maintain strong political influence over both areas. This is evident in times of specific crisis and has been achieved through the continuation of security alliances, political patronage and conflict mediation.

Some Westerners tend to forget that this influence dates back to long before the Soviet regime and will probably continue in a different form. This is a point that Gulf countries understand well; they have not tried to interfere but rather to develop broader relationships that benefit both sides. The Gulf has become an essential strategic corridor for both regions.

This engagement is a sign of greater involvement by Gulf countries and the increased agency of powers in both regions

Khaled Abou Zahr

The wider region presents a complex geopolitical landscape to navigate. It is like playing three-dimensional chess and dodgeball simultaneously. Indeed, from Turkiye, Russia, China and the US, influence comes from all directions. Each power has its own strategic interests, history and economic agenda.

China has played a big role through its powerful economy, as symbolized by infrastructure and energy investments under its Belt and Road Initiative. Turkiye pushes forward with strong cultural and linguistic ties, especially in Central Asia — with the dominance of Turkish television series being a good sign. Meanwhile, the US remains engaged through security cooperation, development aid and energy diplomacy. In short, local governments must skillfully balance external relationships to preserve their autonomy and advance their national interests.

In that sense, Gulf countries have come to be recognized as proposing a much more balanced relationship. By putting forward economic development and collaboration on strategic geopolitical and security interests, it is clear their approach is more cooperative and less domineering than those of the other parties.

Gulf states have proven that their focus is much more on building beneficial partnerships that help strengthen both sides on the economic, cultural, political and security levels. The nature of this engagement, combined with the growing international influence and reach of the Gulf countries, has given the actors in Central Asia and the South Caucasus a valuable broadening of their maneuvering space. While they do not present a full alternative, and probably never will, they help to balance the influence of larger powers.

In a way, the Gulf countries have been able to present a new political approach of dynamic neutrality, which allows them to speak and collaborate with all the powers that face each other. This is very clear in their Central Asian and South Caucasus policies.

It is impossible to look at these two regions only through the economic and soft power lens. The importance of logistical routes and massive lands with competing projects has a major impact on each country’s defense. This also applies to the large powers. Hence, changes in global challenges have translated into shifting alliances. With the war in Ukraine and stronger, more competitive regional defense industries, Russia’s dominance through the Collective Security Treaty Organization faces challenges.

The Gulf countries have not tried to interfere but rather to develop broader relationships that benefit both sides

Khaled Abou Zahr

Countries are diversifying their partnerships. Armenia, which has historically relied on Russian military support, is perhaps reconsidering this in the wake of recent conflicts, especially as Azerbaijan’s close alignment with Turkiye has proven extremely efficient. In Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan balance Russian security ties with growing Chinese influence and cautious Western engagement. Ongoing border tensions in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan add to regional instability.

On that front, Gulf countries have a different approach. Although logistics and energy are the main focus of their collaboration, ºÚÁÏÉçÇø and the UAE have begun exploring deeper security ties, including intelligence sharing, joint training exercises and counterterrorism cooperation on a bilateral level. These efforts aim to address some of the most difficult issues in Central Asia, specifically, which affect all actors. These are best described as transborder security threats, such as radicalization, trafficking and cybercrime, which affect both regions.

The Gulf Cooperation Council states’ approach tends to have the same spirit as its economic collaboration, always focusing on partnerships and capacity-building that benefit both sides in a balanced manner.

One essential area where the Gulf states could provide support to diffuse the greatest risk amid shifting power dynamics is in resolving potential border conflicts, which are often linked to ethnic tensions. This challenge is not unique to the South Caucasus and Central Asia but arises from changes in the world order that allow for more adventurous approaches. This is something the Gulf countries have demonstrated an ability to manage effectively.

Failing to resolve historical issues of poorly demarcated borders could trigger a domino effect of military clashes amid competing influences and bring all economic advances to a halt, making this an important issue where the Gulf can play a valuable role.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.