Oil Updates — crude steady as investors watch Iran-Israel ceasefire, demand signals

Oil Updates — crude steady as investors watch Iran-Israel ceasefire, demand signals
Brent crude futures fell 6 cents, or 0.09 percent, to $67.62 a barrel by 12:45 p.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Oil Updates — crude steady as investors watch Iran-Israel ceasefire, demand signals

Oil Updates — crude steady as investors watch Iran-Israel ceasefire, demand signals
  • Market focus switching to fundamentals, analysts say
  • Data shows US ‘driving season is in full swing’, ANZ says

LONDON: Oil prices were steady on Thursday after erasing earlier gains as investors remained cautious about the Iran-Israel ceasefire while also shifting focus to market fundamentals.

Brent crude futures fell 6 cents, or 0.09 percent, to $67.62 a barrel by 12:45 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2 cents, or 0.03 percent, to $64.90 a barrel.

Both benchmarks climbed nearly 1 percent on Wednesday, recovering from early-week losses after data showed resilient US demand.

Investors will shift their focus back to macroeconomics and oil balances while also watching the Israel-Iran truce, said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

Oil prices likely followed equity markets lower this morning, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

“US government data showed the US driving season is in full swing after a slow start,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

US crude oil and fuel inventories fell in the week to June 20 as refining activity and demand rose, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels, the EIA said, exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 797,000-barrel draw.

Gasoline stocks unexpectedly fell by 2.1 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a 381,000-barrel build as gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, rose to its highest level since December 2021.

On Saturday, Igor Sechin, the head of Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft, said OPEC+, which groups together the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, could bring forward its output hikes by around a year from an initial plan.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump hailed the swift end to war between Iran and Israel and said Washington would likely seek a commitment from Tehran to end its nuclear ambitions at talks with Iranian officials next week.

Trump also said on Wednesday that the US has not given up its maximum pressure on Iran — including restrictions on sales of Iranian oil — but signalled a potential easing in enforcement to help the country rebuild. 


IMF approves $700m resilience loan for Jordan, disburses $134m under existing program

IMF approves $700m resilience loan for Jordan, disburses $134m under existing program
Updated 14 sec ago

IMF approves $700m resilience loan for Jordan, disburses $134m under existing program

IMF approves $700m resilience loan for Jordan, disburses $134m under existing program

RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund has approved $834 million for Jordan through a $700 million Resilience and Sustainability loan and a $134 million disbursement under its Extended Fund Facility to bolster economic stability and resilience.

The institution’s executive board has completed the third review of Jordan’s Extended Fund Facility, allowing for an immediate distribution of the $134 million, according to a press release. This brings total disbursements so far under the four-year, $1.3 billion program, approved in January 2024, to $595 million.

Additionally, the new 30-month Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement will grant Jordan access to $700 million to address structural challenges in the water and electricity sectors and strengthen preparedness for public health emergencies, including future pandemics.

Jordan’s economy has faced mounting pressures in recent years, intensified by regional instability, including the ongoing war in Gaza and the prolonged hosting of large numbers of refugees from neighboring conflicts. These challenges have strained public finances, increased unemployment, and disrupted trade and tourism, key sectors for the Jordanian economy.

The IMF and World Bank have stepped up their support, backing reforms aimed at stabilizing finances and spurring growth under Jordan’s Economic Modernization Vision.

Kenji Okamura, IMF deputy managing director, praised Jordan’s “steadfast pursuit of sound policies” and urged continued reforms to boost private investment and job creation.

“Monetary policy remains appropriately focused on safeguarding monetary and financial stability and supporting the exchange rate peg that has served Jordan well and helped keeping inflation low,” the deputy managing director said.

Okamura observed that Jordan’s banking sector remains robust, with the central bank bolstering risk analysis, oversight, and crisis response.

The IMF emphasized the need to boost revenue, streamline spending, and implement contingency measures to reduce public debt while safeguarding key social and capital expenditures. It also stressed improving public utilities’ efficiency and viability to ensure fiscal sustainability and better service delivery.

“The authorities continue to make progress with a gradual fiscal consolidation and strengthening fiscal sustainability, thanks to fiscal reforms that have improved revenue administration and expenditure efficiency,” the organization said.

Economic resilience amid regional challenges

Despite external pressures from regional conflicts and global uncertainty, Jordan’s economy has shown steady growth, reaching 2.5 percent in 2024, with inflation remaining low, according to the IMF.

The Central Bank of Jordan has maintained strong foreign reserves of over $20 billion and a stable exchange rate peg. 

The Extended Fund Facility program has supported fiscal reforms, helping Jordan reduce public debt while protecting social spending. The new Resilience and Sustainability Facility loan will focus on improving energy and water sector sustainability, strengthening financial resilience, and enhancing pandemic preparedness.

In February, the IMF commended Jordan for effectively managing economic headwinds from the Gaza war through prudent fiscal measures, though the institution did revise down the country’s 2024 growth forecast to 2.6 percent due to regional spillovers. 

In April, the World Bank bolstered Jordan’s economic development efforts with $1.1 billion in new financing to expand social protections and drive private-sector growth, targeting the country’s 22.3 percent unemployment rate and 117 percent debt-to-gross domestic product ratio. 

Both institutions emphasized the need to sustain reforms to address structural challenges exacerbated by refugee inflows, the pandemic, and regional conflicts.


Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges higher to close at 10,974

Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges higher to close at 10,974
Updated 25 June 2025

Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges higher to close at 10,974

Closing Bell: Saudi benchmark index edges higher to close at 10,974
  • MSCI Tadawul 30 Index rose 0.06% to 1,407.47
  • Parallel market Nomu lost 0.05% to close at 26,837.30

RIYADH: ’s main stock index closed slightly higher on Wednesday, as gains in select industrial and infrastructure stocks offset broader market weakness.

The Tadawul All Share Index added 9.7 points, or 0.09 percent, finishing the session at 10,973.98. Total trading turnover was SR6.10 billion ($1.62 billion), with 180 stocks advancing while 66 declined.

The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index also recorded a modest gain, rising 0.06 percent to 1,407.47.

In contrast, the parallel market Nomu dipped slightly, losing 13.49 points, or 0.05 percent, to close at 26,837.30. A total of 35 stocks posted gains on Nomu, while 45 ended in the red.

Sustained Infrastructure Holding Co. led the market with a sharp 9.89 percent increase to SR30.55, followed by Saudi Printing and Packaging Co., which rose 9.83 percent to SR11.84. Refineries Co. also saw strong momentum, climbing 5.48 percent to a new yearly high of SR63.50.

Among the session’s notable losers, Specialized Medical Co. dropped 3.36 percent to SR24.16, Zamil Industrial Investment Co. slipped 2.29 percent to SR40.60, and Arabian Contracting Services Co. fell 2.12 percent to SR96.90.

Meanwhile, n Mining Co., known as Ma’aden, received shareholder approval to raise its capital from SR38.03 billion to SR38.89 billion during its extraordinary general assembly meeting held on June 24. The 2.26 percent increase will lift the number of issued ordinary shares from 3.80 billion to 3.89 billion.

According to a company disclosure on the Saudi Exchange, the capital hike will be carried out through the issuance of 85.98 million new ordinary shares at a par value of SR10. These shares will be allocated as part of an acquisition agreement to purchase full ownership of two subsidiaries: Ma’aden Bauxite and Alumina Co. and Ma’aden Aluminium Co.

Under the transaction, Ma’aden will acquire all 128.01 million shares held by AWA Saudi in the bauxite firm, representing 25.1 percent of its capital, along with 165 million shares held by Alcoa Saudi in the aluminum unit—also a 25.1 percent stake.

Shares of Ma’aden rose 0.2 percent to end the day at SR50.70.

Red Sea International Co. also announced plans to publicly list its subsidiary, Fundamental Installation for Electric Work Co. Ltd., subject to regulatory and shareholder approval. The decision was approved by the board in a resolution passed on June 23 and implemented the following day.

While Red Sea International will not offer any of its own shares in the IPO, the move is considered a significant transaction due to the subsidiary’s strategic role in the group’s operations. The company’s stock rose 0.12 percent to close at SR42.50.


’s non-oil exports climb 24.6% in April: GASTAT 

’s non-oil exports climb 24.6% in April: GASTAT 
Updated 25 June 2025

’s non-oil exports climb 24.6% in April: GASTAT 

’s non-oil exports climb 24.6% in April: GASTAT 
  • National non-oil exports — excluding re-exports — grew 6.8%
  • Machinery, electrical equipment, and parts accounted for 27.7% of total imports

RIYADH: ’s non-oil exports saw an annual rise of 24.6 percent in April, reaching SR28.36 billion ($7.56 billion) thanks to a sharp increase in re-exports and a strong performance in chemicals and plastics.

According to data released by the General Authority for Statistics, national non-oil exports — excluding re-exports — grew 6.8 percent during the month, while the value of re-exported goods increased 72 percent. 

’s non-oil exports hit a record SR515 billion ($137 billion) in 2024, up 13 percent from 2023 and over 113 percent since the launch of Vision 2030 in 2016, which aims to diversify the Kingdom’s economy and reduce its dependence on oil by expanding industrial, mining, and service sectors. 

The strong non-oil export performance comes as the World Bank projects Gulf economic growth to accelerate to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, driven by the rollback of OPEC+ oil production cuts and continued momentum in non-oil sectors.

In its latest release, GASTAT stated: “Among the most important non-oil exports are plastics, rubber, and their products, which constituted 21.7 percent of total non-oil exports, recording a 4.0 percent increase compared to April 2024.” It added that chemical products followed at 21 percent of the total, with a 2.3 percent year-on-year increase.

The release stated that merchandise exports decreased by 10.9 percent in April compared to the same month of the previous year, as a result of a 21.2 percent decrease in oil exports. 

“Consequently, the percentage of oil exports out of total exports decreased from 77.5 percent in April 2024 to 68.6 percent in April 2025,” said the report. 

This led to a narrowing of the trade surplus by 61.7 percent compared to the same period last year

The ratio of non-oil exports, including re-exports, to imports rose to 37.2 percent in April, up from 35.4 percent a year earlier — largely due to the increases in non-oil exports and imports of 24.6 percent and 18.3 percent, respectively. 

On the import side, machinery, electrical equipment, and parts accounted for 27.7 percent of total imports, rising 25.4 percent year on year. Transportation equipment and parts followed at 17.2 percent, with a 64.5 percent surge.

China remained ’s top export destination, accounting for 12.6 percent of the total in April. Japan ranked second at 10.1 percent, followed by the UAE at 9.8 percent.

Other key destinations included India, South Korea, and the US, as well as Egypt, Malta, Poland, and Bahrain — with exports to these 10 markets comprising 67.5 percent of total exports.

On the import front, China was also the top origin, representing 25 percent of the total, followed by the US at 7.5 percent and the UAE at 6.8 percent. 

Imports from India, Germany, and Japan, as well as Italy, Switzerland, the UK, and France, together made up 66.3 percent of the total.

In terms of customs points, the King Abdulaziz Sea Port in Dammam handled 26 percent of total imports in April, followed by Jeddah Islamic Sea Port at 20.4 percent, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh at 13.9 percent, King Abdulaziz International Airport at 12.6 percent, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam at 5.7 percent. 

These five ports together accounted for 78.6 percent of total merchandise imports.

The strong performance in non-oil exports comes after Fitch Ratings in February affirmed ’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘A+’ with a stable outlook, citing the Kingdom’s robust fiscal and external balance sheets. The agency also noted that Vision 2030 has played a central role in diversifying one of the Middle East’s strongest economies.


Education sector leads weekly POS surge with 666% value spike despite overall drop

Education sector leads weekly POS surge with 666% value spike despite overall drop
Updated 25 June 2025

Education sector leads weekly POS surge with 666% value spike despite overall drop

Education sector leads weekly POS surge with 666% value spike despite overall drop
  • Spending on transportation increased by 28.7%
  • Construction and building materials saw a 25.6% uptick

RIYADH: ’s point-of-sale spending in the education sector saw a weekly rise of 666 percent to reach SR193.26 million ($51.53 million) by June 21, according to official data.

The latest figures from the Saudi Central Bank, known as SAMA, also showed the number of POS transactions in the sector nearly doubled, climbing by 98.1 percent, indicating a significant rebound in consumer activity in this segment.

This sharp increase in educational spending came despite a 1.5 percent decline in the total value of POS transactions across the Kingdom, which dropped from SR11.1 billion to SR10.9 billion over the same period.

The weekly data further showed that transaction values rose in several other sectors, although none matched the scale of growth seen in the education division.

Spending on transportation increased by 28.7 percent, while construction and building materials saw a 25.6 percent uptick in value.

Telecommunication and health sectors both posted gains of 4.8 percent and 16.8 percent, respectively.

The electronics and electric devices segment recorded a 16.8 percent rise in spending value, and the furniture sector grew by 4.4 percent.

Slight increases were also observed in the public utilities and miscellaneous goods and services sectors, which grew by 3.5 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.

However, several categories experienced downturns. The largest declines in transaction values were reported in the hotels and recreation and culture sectors, which fell by 9.1 percent and 14.7 percent, respectively.

Regionally, Riyadh remained the top city for POS spending, logging over SR3.91 billion in transactions, a 9.1 percent increase from the previous week. Dammam and Khobar also recorded gains, with spending in Dammam up by 8.4 percent and in Khobar by 5.1 percent.

Cities such as Makkah and Madinah recorded double-digit declines, down by 24.2 percent and 11.7 percent, respectively, in total POS transaction values.

Jeddah maintained a steady performance, with spending remaining flat at SR1.6 billion, while Tabuk saw a slight uptick of 3 percent in value.

Spending in restaurants and cafes dropped by 12.8 percent, while beverage and food transactions declined by 7.2 percent.

Jewelry purchases also contracted by 12.8 percent, and clothing and footwear fell by 7.2 percent. Other sectors, such as gas stations and the category, also saw declines of 5.1 percent.

Overall, the total number of POS transactions across all sectors dipped slightly by 0.6 percent week on week, totaling just over 202.5 million transactions during the reporting period.


Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence

Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence
Updated 25 June 2025

Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence

Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence
  • Outlook benefits from Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets — amounting to 157% of GDP
  • Fitch forecasts UAE GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2025

RIYADH: The UAE’s long-term foreign-currency rating has been affirmed at “AA-” with a stable outlook by Fitch, reflecting the country’s consolidated government debt, strong net external asset position, and high gross domestic product per capita. 

The US-based rating agency noted that this outlook benefits from Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets — amounting to 157 percent of the UAE’s gross domestic product in 2024 — which rank among the highest of all Fitch-rated sovereigns. 

The agency noted the ongoing regional geopolitical risks, but it assumes the conflict involving Israel, the US, and Iran will be contained and short-lived. 

The report comes as Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire brokered by the US, which took effect on June 24, following 12 days of conflict that raised fears of a broader regional escalation. 

In its commentary, Fitch Ratings stated: “A regional conflagration would pose a risk to Abu Dhabi’s hydrocarbon infrastructure and to Dubai as a trade, tourism and financial hub,” 

Fitch estimated the UAE’s consolidated fiscal surplus stood at 7.1 percent of GDP in 2024, following a level of 8.6 percent in 2023. Shutterstock

It emphasized that “the UAE’s ratings could absorb some short-term disruptions given large fiscal and external buffers.” 

Fitch’s assessment follows S&P Global’s recent assignment of “AA/A‑1+” with a stable outlook for its foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to the UAE, citing the country’s strong fiscal and external positions. 

The agency also noted that the UAE’s sizable asset cushion would help shield it from oil price volatility and regional geopolitical tensions. 

Fitch estimated the UAE’s consolidated fiscal surplus stood at 7.1 percent of GDP in 2024, following a level of 8.6 percent in 2023, with surpluses in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and budget deficits in Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah. 

It projected a fiscal breakeven oil price of $45–$50 per barrel in 2025 and 2026, excluding investment income, which Fitch attributed partly to “rising oil production volumes and the significant share of spending by GREs (government-related entities).” 

“We forecast the consolidated surplus at 5.3 percent of GDP in 2025 and 5.9 percent in 2026. Narrower deficits in Sharjah and higher oil production levels in Abu Dhabi will mitigate the forecast drop in oil prices from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65/bbl in 2025 and 2026,” Fitch said. 

It added: “Dubai will retain a budget surplus.” 

With regard to the federal government’s budget, Fitch stated that it remains below 4 percent of GDP and is primarily focused on core services.

Despite moderate direct debt, Fitch views the UAE’s economy as highly leveraged. Shutterstock

The report emphasized that the federal budget must remain balanced by law, leaving limited scope for borrowing or adjustment. From 2026 onward, corporate tax revenue is expected to help offset reduced grants from Abu Dhabi. 

Despite moderate direct debt, Fitch views the UAE’s economy as highly leveraged. “We estimate overall contingent liabilities from GREs of the emirates and the FG in 2023 at about 62 percent of UAE 2023 GDP,” the report said, though it acknowledged that many state-owned entities are financially sound. 

Fitch forecasts UAE GDP to grow by 5.2 percent in 2025, supported by a 9 percent increase in oil production from Abu Dhabi and strong non-oil growth of over 4 percent, driven by investment and population expansion. However, it warned of risks from “lower oil prices and global growth uncertainties.” 

Earlier this month, the UAE Central Bank’s Quarterly Economic Review for December 2024 reported that the country’s GDP reached 1.77 trillion dirhams ($481.4 billion) in 2024, growing 4 percent. Non-oil sectors contributed 75.5 percent of the total — highlighting continued economic diversification. 

The central bank maintained its real GDP growth forecast at 4 percent for 2024, with an anticipated acceleration to 4.5 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent in 2026. 

On governance, Fitch said the UAE maintains an ESG Relevance Score of “5[+]” for political stability, rule of law, and institutional quality.

The agency credited the UAE’s “record of domestic political stability, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption,” referencing World Bank Governance Indicators, where the country ranks in the 70th percentile.