Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence

Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence
UAE’s sizable asset cushion will help shield it from oil price volatility and regional geopolitical tensions. Shutterstock
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Updated 25 June 2025

Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence

Fitch affirms UAE’s ‘AA-’ rating on strong external buffers, fiscal prudence
  • Outlook benefits from Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets — amounting to 157% of GDP
  • Fitch forecasts UAE GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2025

RIYADH: The UAE’s long-term foreign-currency rating has been affirmed at “AA-” with a stable outlook by Fitch, reflecting the country’s consolidated government debt, strong net external asset position, and high gross domestic product per capita. 

The US-based rating agency noted that this outlook benefits from Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets — amounting to 157 percent of the UAE’s gross domestic product in 2024 — which rank among the highest of all Fitch-rated sovereigns. 

The agency noted the ongoing regional geopolitical risks, but it assumes the conflict involving Israel, the US, and Iran will be contained and short-lived. 

The report comes as Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire brokered by the US, which took effect on June 24, following 12 days of conflict that raised fears of a broader regional escalation. 

In its commentary, Fitch Ratings stated: “A regional conflagration would pose a risk to Abu Dhabi’s hydrocarbon infrastructure and to Dubai as a trade, tourism and financial hub,” 




Fitch estimated the UAE’s consolidated fiscal surplus stood at 7.1 percent of GDP in 2024, following a level of 8.6 percent in 2023. Shutterstock

It emphasized that “the UAE’s ratings could absorb some short-term disruptions given large fiscal and external buffers.” 

Fitch’s assessment follows S&P Global’s recent assignment of “AA/A‑1+” with a stable outlook for its foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to the UAE, citing the country’s strong fiscal and external positions. 

The agency also noted that the UAE’s sizable asset cushion would help shield it from oil price volatility and regional geopolitical tensions. 

Fitch estimated the UAE’s consolidated fiscal surplus stood at 7.1 percent of GDP in 2024, following a level of 8.6 percent in 2023, with surpluses in Abu Dhabi and Dubai and budget deficits in Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah. 

It projected a fiscal breakeven oil price of $45–$50 per barrel in 2025 and 2026, excluding investment income, which Fitch attributed partly to “rising oil production volumes and the significant share of spending by GREs (government-related entities).” 

“We forecast the consolidated surplus at 5.3 percent of GDP in 2025 and 5.9 percent in 2026. Narrower deficits in Sharjah and higher oil production levels in Abu Dhabi will mitigate the forecast drop in oil prices from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65/bbl in 2025 and 2026,” Fitch said. 

It added: “Dubai will retain a budget surplus.” 

With regard to the federal government’s budget, Fitch stated that it remains below 4 percent of GDP and is primarily focused on core services.




Despite moderate direct debt, Fitch views the UAE’s economy as highly leveraged. Shutterstock

The report emphasized that the federal budget must remain balanced by law, leaving limited scope for borrowing or adjustment. From 2026 onward, corporate tax revenue is expected to help offset reduced grants from Abu Dhabi. 

Despite moderate direct debt, Fitch views the UAE’s economy as highly leveraged. “We estimate overall contingent liabilities from GREs of the emirates and the FG in 2023 at about 62 percent of UAE 2023 GDP,” the report said, though it acknowledged that many state-owned entities are financially sound. 

Fitch forecasts UAE GDP to grow by 5.2 percent in 2025, supported by a 9 percent increase in oil production from Abu Dhabi and strong non-oil growth of over 4 percent, driven by investment and population expansion. However, it warned of risks from “lower oil prices and global growth uncertainties.” 

Earlier this month, the UAE Central Bank’s Quarterly Economic Review for December 2024 reported that the country’s GDP reached 1.77 trillion dirhams ($481.4 billion) in 2024, growing 4 percent. Non-oil sectors contributed 75.5 percent of the total — highlighting continued economic diversification. 

The central bank maintained its real GDP growth forecast at 4 percent for 2024, with an anticipated acceleration to 4.5 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent in 2026. 

On governance, Fitch said the UAE maintains an ESG Relevance Score of “5[+]” for political stability, rule of law, and institutional quality.

The agency credited the UAE’s “record of domestic political stability, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption,” referencing World Bank Governance Indicators, where the country ranks in the 70th percentile.


Bahrain’s economy grows 2.5% in Q2 as non-oil sectors lead expansion

Bahrain’s economy grows 2.5% in Q2 as non-oil sectors lead expansion
Updated 07 October 2025

Bahrain’s economy grows 2.5% in Q2 as non-oil sectors lead expansion

Bahrain’s economy grows 2.5% in Q2 as non-oil sectors lead expansion

RIYADH: Bahrain’s economy expanded 2.5 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2025, fueled by robust non-oil activity that continued to anchor growth, official data showed. 

The Information and eGovernment Authority and the Ministry of Finance and National Economy reported that non-oil sectors grew 3.5 percent, accounting for over 85 percent of real gross domestic product, the Bahrain News Agency reported. 

Bahrain’s performance builds on reforms under the Economic Recovery Plan, launched in October 2021 to accelerate post-pandemic growth and fiscal sustainability as part of the Economic Vision 2030 strategy. 

It also aligns with broader regional trends, as Gulf economies sustain steady non-oil expansion. 

“The Kingdom continues to achieve notable progress in international economic and development indicators, reflecting the success of its economic diversification strategies and efforts to enhance the business environment,” BNA reported. 

The latest figures showed that professional, scientific, and technical services led the upturn with a 12 percent increase, followed by wholesale and retail trade up 6.7 percent, and real estate rising 4.7 percent. 

Accommodation and food services advanced 4.6 percent, while gains were also recorded in information and communications, construction, finance, and manufacturing, underscoring broad-based momentum outside hydrocarbons. 

Foreign investment indicators strengthened alongside output. Inward foreign direct investment stock increased 5.4 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2025 to 17.5 billion Bahraini dinars ($46.4 billion), reflecting continued capital inflows into the non-oil economy. 

The second quarter’s growth builds on a solid first-quarter outturn, when Bahrain’s real GDP rose 2.7 percent year on year, underpinned by a 2.2 percent expansion in non-oil activity and a 5.3 percent rise in oil output, according to official data. 

In nominal terms, GDP increased 3 percent, with the non-oil and oil sectors up 2.8 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively. Non-oil industries remained the economy’s anchor, contributing 84.8 percent to real GDP. 

Bahrain ranked first among Arab countries in Gallup’s Global Safety Report 2025 Law and Order Index, with 90 percent of respondents reporting feeling safe at night. 

The country recorded the largest improvement in the North Africa and Western Asia region in the Global Innovation Index 2025, climbing 10 places. 

It also ranked fifth in the 2025 Greenfield FDI Performance Index and fifth in the Finance Skills Indicator in the IMD World Talent Ranking. 

Across the Gulf in the second quarter of the year, ’s GDP rose 3.9 percent year on year, Abu Dhabi’s economy grew 3.8 percent, driven by a 6.6 percent rise in non-oil sectors, and Oman recorded 2.1 percent growth, supported by diversified activity — highlighting continued regional momentum in economic diversification efforts. 


ITFC lends Djibouti $90m to strengthen energy security 

ITFC lends Djibouti $90m to strengthen energy security 
Updated 07 October 2025

ITFC lends Djibouti $90m to strengthen energy security 

ITFC lends Djibouti $90m to strengthen energy security 

JEDDAH: Djibouti’s energy security will receive a major boost as the International Islamic Trade Finance Corp. signs a $90 million syndicated facility to support the country’s procurement of refined petroleum products. 

The deal, signed by ITFC Chief Operating Officer Nazeem Noordali and Djibouti’s Minister of Economy and Finance Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh, will enable the Société Internationale des Hydrocarbures de Djibouti to finance the procurement of essential fuel imports. 

The facility forms part of ITFC’s broader engagement with Djibouti under a $600 million three-year framework agreement signed in 2023. That accord aims to strengthen key sectors, including energy, agriculture, health, and private enterprise. 

Commenting on the agreement, Noordali stated: “Djibouti’s economic potential is closely tied to the strength of its energy sector, and substantial investment is essential to unlocking that potential. ITFC reinforces its commitment to supporting Djibouti’s energy security and sustainable growth through this new facility.” 

He added: “We are pleased to strengthen our long-standing partnership with Djibouti and help bolster SIHD’s ability to successfully deliver on its mandate of securing the country’s supply of oil products. We remain dedicated to advancing Djibouti’s economic development and will continue channeling funding where it creates the greatest impact.” 

The transaction follows a $90 million Murabaha financing agreement concluded in February 2024 for a similar purpose, also executed with SIHD. At that time, ITFC reported total approvals of $1.6 billion for Djibouti across 33 operations in energy and health.

Djibouti, located along one of the world’s busiest shipping routes at the mouth of the Red Sea, relies heavily on imported petroleum products to meet its domestic energy demand. 

The country’s government has prioritized securing reliable fuel supplies to sustain economic growth, particularly as it positions itself as a logistics and maritime hub for East Africa. 

Since 2008, the Jeddah-based multilateral lender — a member of the Islamic Development Bank Group — has extended $1.7 billion in financing and capacity-building support to Djibouti. 

The new deal is expected to enhance the country’s fuel security, sustain electricity generation, and support trade among Organization of Islamic Cooperation member states. 


Pakistan plans to double manpower exports to

Pakistan plans to double manpower exports to
Updated 06 October 2025

Pakistan plans to double manpower exports to

Pakistan plans to double manpower exports to

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is planning to double its manpower exports to after the signing of a landmark defense deal between the two countries last month, officials told Arab News on Monday.

The country’s human resource exports to have already witnessed a steady rise over the past five years, according to the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment. Pakistan sent 1.88 million workers to between 2020 and 2024, up 21 percent from 1.56 million in 2015–2019.

Remittances from the Kingdom rose from $7.39 billion in 2020 to $8.59 billion in 2024, reflecting steady demand for Pakistani labor. In contrast, inflows from the United Arab Emirates fluctuated between $5.8 billion and $6.8 billion during the same period, while those from Qatar remained below $1 billion annually, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.

In September, both countries signed a landmark defense pact that is meant to enhance joint deterrence and deepen decades of military and security cooperation. Top Pakistani government officials, including National Food Security Minister Rana Tanveer, have said Islamabad and Riyadh will sign a wide-ranging economic pact in the follow up of the defense deal.

“The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact will have a great impact on manpower export. Current average export is around half a million workers per year, and from next year, we hope to double it to one million,” said Gul Akbar, a senior director at the BEOE.

The BEOE is working with officials of Pakistan’s Special Investment Facilitation Council, a civil-military body formed to boost investment, particularly from the Middle East, to make it possible through a number of steps, according to the official. The draft will be shared with Saudi officials by their Pakistani counterparts in upcoming meetings.

The Pakistan government on Sunday constituted a high-level committee comprising ministers and officials to oversee bilateral economic engagements and negotiations with .

Akbar said Pakistan has proposed setting up technical training institutes in both countries to improve skill certification and employability of local workforce.

“We are also proposing an e-visa system for Pakistani workers,” he added.

The Kingdom remains the largest destination for Pakistani workers and the biggest source of remittances that amounted to $736.7 million in Aug. out of a total inflow of $3.1 billion, according to the SBP.

Experts link the rise in number of Pakistani workers traveling to to ongoing development projects in the Kingdom under its Vision 2030, which they say have created strong demand for skilled and semi-skilled foreign labor.

’s hosting of the 2034 FIFA World Cup is further fueling demand for foreign labor, amid construction of large stadiums, transport networks and hospitality infrastructure in the Kingdom.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s human resource exports to the UAE declined sharply by 65 percent from 1.32 million to 463,000 from 2020 till 2024, while Qatar more than doubled its intake from 74,000 to 170,000 Pakistani workers, reflecting shifting labor dynamics across the Gulf region.

To meet ’s labor needs, Pakistan has partnered with Takamol, a Pakistani skill verification program, and its National Vocational and Technical Training Commission is certifying workers in 62 skilled categories, ranging from construction to technical services.

Speaking to Arab News, Masood Ahmad, CEO of M.Pak Makkah Manpower Services, said his firm alone dispatched 2,000 workers to this year.

“The defense pact has boosted Saudi employers’ confidence in Pakistani workers as both countries deepen cooperation,” he said, highlighting a growing demand for health care professionals and delivery drivers.

Akbar dismissed concerns about “brain drain” and called overseas employment a “national achievement.” Pakistan’s surplus labor should be seen as an economic resource that brings home remittances, knowledge and technical skills, he added.

Remittances remain a cornerstone of Pakistan’s external finances, providing hard currency that supports household consumption, narrows the current-account deficit, and strengthens foreign exchange reserves.

In the last fiscal year, Pakistan recorded $38.3 billion workers’ remittances — an $8 billion increase from the previous year, surpassing the country’s $7 billion International Monetary Fund loan program.


Pakistan forms high-level committee to lead economic negotiations with

Pakistan forms high-level committee to lead economic negotiations with
Updated 06 October 2025

Pakistan forms high-level committee to lead economic negotiations with

Pakistan forms high-level committee to lead economic negotiations with
  • Body formed weeks after Pakistan and sign landmark mutual defense pact

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan government has constituted a high-level committee to steer bilateral economic engagements and negotiations with , according to an official notification issued by the prime minister’s office on Sunday.

It is widely believed that Islamabad and Riyadh will sign a wide-ranging economic pact as early as this month, weeks after they inked a mutual defense pact, significantly strengthening a decades-old security partnership. 

Pakistan’s alliance with — the site of Islam’s holiest sites — is rooted in shared faith, strategic interests and economic interdependence. Nearly 2.6 million Pakistanis live and work in and are also the largest source of remittances to the South Asian nation.

Pakistan has pushed in recent months to strengthen trade and investment ties with friendly nations, particularly the Kingdom, which has promised a $5 billion investment package that cash-strapped Pakistan desperately needs to shore up foreign reserves and fight a chronic balance of payment crisis. 

According to the PM office notification, the committee will be co-chaired by Minister for Climate Change Musadik Masood Malik and Lt. Gen. Sarfraz Ahmad, National Coordinator of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, a civil-military body that oversees foreign investments. 

“The Co-Chairs shall constitute Core/Negotiation Teams for negotiations with the Saudi counterparts. These teams shall be responsible for implementing and executing the assigned tasks on fast-track basis,” the notification said. 

It further noted that all members and representatives would ensure availability from Oct. 6 onwards and that the PM has directed the SIFC to process members’ travel approvals “within one hour the same working day.”

The committee has been tasked to submit progress reports to the Prime Minister on a fortnightly basis, with the SIFC Secretariat providing administrative support.

Other members of the committee include Minister for Economic Affairs Ahad Khan Cheema, Minister for Power Awais Leghari, Minister for Commerce Jam Kamal Khan, Minister for National Food Security & Research Rana Tanveer Hussain, Minister for Communications Abdul Aleem Khan, Minister for Information Technology & Telecommunication Shaza Fatima Khawaja, and Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Industries & Production Haroon Akhtar Khan, among others.

Bilateral trade between Pakistan and remains highly imbalanced, with Saudi exports to Pakistan vastly exceeding Pakistani exports in recent years. In 2023, ’s exports to Pakistan were estimated at approximately $4.65 billion, while Pakistan’s exports to were much smaller, such as about $138 million in rice among other goods. 

In 2024, Pakistan’s total exports to stood at around $734 million, with major items including cereals and meat, while Saudi exports to Pakistan included refined petroleum and chemical products. 

Last October, Pakistani and Saudi business communities signed 34 MoUs worth about $2.8 billion during a visit by a Saudi investment delegation. It is unclear how many of those MoUs have been converted into active projects or contracts in a year. 


Closing Bell: Saudi main market rises to 11,605

Closing Bell: Saudi main market rises to 11,605
Updated 06 October 2025

Closing Bell: Saudi main market rises to 11,605

Closing Bell: Saudi main market rises to 11,605

RIYADH: ’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Monday, gaining 76.61 points, or 0.66 percent, to close at 11,605.20.  

The total trading turnover for the main index stood at SR6.22 billion ($1.66 billion), with 307.7 million shares traded. A total of 149 stocks advanced, while 97 declined.  

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also edged higher, climbing 64.55 points, or 0.25 percent, to 25,540.27, with 41 gainers and 52 losers.   

Meanwhile, the MT30 index, which tracks the performance of the top 30 companies by market capitalization, advanced 12.8 points, or 0.85 percent, to 1,514.75.  

The Power and Water Utility Co. for Jubail and Yanbu was the top performer of the day, with its share price rising 9.97 percent to SR43.24.

Other notable gainers included Saudi Reinsurance Co., which increased 6.83 percent to SR51, and n Mining Co., which gained 4.62 percent to SR67.90.   

Saudi Automotive Services Co. also advanced 4.45 percent to SR59.90, while Saudi Aramco Base Oil Co. climbed 4.36 percent to SR93.40.  

Sport Clubs Co. recorded the steepest fall, dropping 3.04 percent to SR10.85, while National Shipping Co. of eased 2.75 percent to SR29.04. Etihad Etisalat Co. declined 2.43 percent, closing at SR66.35. 

Arab National Bank slipped 2.40 percent to SR25.20, and Thimar Development Holding Co. decreased 2.10 percent to SR43.80.  

On the announcement front, Derayah Financial Co. said its board of directors approved the distribution of cash dividends totaling SR8.9 million for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025.   

The company stated that shareholders registered at the close of trading on Oct. 13 will be eligible, with distribution scheduled for Oct. 23.  

Derayah’s shares closed 1.59 percent higher at SR30.68.  

Jahez International Co. for Information System Technology announced the completion of the first phase of its acquisition of a 75 percent stake in Snoonu Corporation Holding LLC through the purchase of more than 7.9 million shares.   

Following the transaction, Jahez’s total ownership in Snoonu reached 76.56 percent, while the founder, Hamad Mubarak Al-Hajj, retained 23.44 percent.   

The company said the deal was financed through a mix of internal cash and treasury shares, with the financial impact to be reflected in Jahez’s 2025 year-end statements. 

Shares of Jahez closed 0.54 percent higher at SR22.52.