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The recent announcement by Myanmar’s junta that it will hold national elections in December 2025 or January 2026 is not the sign of democratic progress it purports to be. Rather, it is a familiar ruse, one the military regime has deployed before to buy time, consolidate power, and manipulate both domestic and international opinion. The world must not be fooled again.

Since the February 2021 coup, Myanmar has descended into chaos. The military’s seizure of power dismantled a fledgling democracy and sparked widespread resistance, pushing the country into a protracted civil conflict. The state of emergency, imposed as a pretext for the coup, remains in effect, granting sweeping powers to the military and silencing opposition through brutal repression. Thousands have been detained, tortured, or killed. Ethnic minorities, including the Rohingya, continue to face systemic violence and displacement. Meanwhile, the junta has outlawed key opposition parties, including the National League for Democracy, and imprisoned its leaders, such as Aung San Suu Kyi, on trumped-up charges.

In this context, any promise of an election is farcical. An electoral process conducted under martial law, with political opponents silenced and civil liberties suspended, cannot be deemed free or fair. It is an insult to the very idea of democracy.

Yet the junta’s announcement is not without strategic calculation. It is timed to pre-empt growing international isolation and to fend off pressure from ASEAN and other regional actors. The regime wants to give the appearance of progress, hoping that regional powers will ease diplomatic pressure and donor nations will resume engagement. It is a playbook the generals have used before with some success.

It is an insult to the very idea of democracy

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

In 2010, the junta held elections while maintaining tight control, barring credible opposition, and ensuring a military-dominated outcome. That charade allowed for limited normalization with the international community, culminating in a brief democratic opening that ended with the 2021 coup. The lesson from that period is clear: Myanmar’s military will use any perceived legitimacy from international recognition of elections to strengthen its hold on power.

ASEAN, under Malaysia’s current leadership, has a unique opportunity and responsibility to ensure that the mistakes of the past are not repeated. As the region’s primary diplomatic bloc, ASEAN’s stance will be critical. It must categorically reject any election that does not meet internationally accepted democratic standards.

That means first insisting on clear and enforceable preconditions before any vote can be recognized. These include the lifting of the state of emergency, the release of all political prisoners, the restoration of press and civic freedoms, and the reinstatement of banned political parties. Without these, any electoral process will simply be a rubber stamp for continued military rule.

Moreover, ASEAN must ensure that international election observers are involved at every stage, from voter registration to ballot counting. Observation cannot be symbolic or constrained to a few urban centers. It must be comprehensive, credible, and capable of certifying the integrity of the process. Anything less would provide a fig leaf for a military-engineered outcome.

Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, is well-placed to lead on this issue. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has shown a commendable willingness to speak frankly on regional matters of justice and human rights. His administration should work to rally ASEAN consensus around a firm stance on Myanmar’s elections. This includes conditioning any engagement with the junta on measurable progress toward a genuine democratic transition.

ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus, adopted in 2021, remains the region’s guiding framework for resolving the Myanmar crisis. But it has so far failed to yield results, largely because the junta has ignored its provisions with impunity. If ASEAN does not enforce consequences for noncompliance, the consensus becomes meaningless. Refusing to endorse a sham election would be a first step in restoring credibility to the bloc’s diplomacy.

Now is the time for vigilance, not validation

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

The international community must also play its part. Western governments, the UN, and multilateral institutions should issue an unequivocal message: no recognition of any electoral result without a demonstrably fair process. Targeted sanctions should remain in place until democratic norms are restored. More importantly, humanitarian aid to Myanmar must be expanded, but channeled through neutral, independent actors, not through the junta, which has consistently diverted aid for its own purposes.

Finally, the National Unity Government, ethnic minority groups, and civil society actors must be included in any political roadmap. These actors represent the will of the people far more than the generals in Naypyidaw. A sustainable future for Myanmar cannot be built on the exclusion of its most representative and resilient voices.

The stakes are high. A fraudulent election would not only prolong the suffering of Myanmar’s people, it could also entrench authoritarianism in a region already grappling with democratic backsliding. ASEAN, which has long prided itself on the principle of noninterference, must recognize that the Myanmar crisis is no longer an internal matter. It threatens regional stability, refugee flows, and the integrity of ASEAN itself.

If ASEAN and the international community lend even tacit legitimacy to a rigged election, they will be complicit in the junta’s deception. But if they set and enforce clear conditions for political inclusion and democratic safeguards, they can help steer Myanmar toward a just and peaceful resolution.

Now is the time for vigilance, not validation. The world must not fall for the junta’s electoral theater. Myanmar’s people deserve a real choice, not another chapter of military rule dressed up in the trappings of democracy.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim