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In a striking twist of geopolitical irony, one of the most persecuted Muslim communities in the world — the Rohingya — may find their most realistic path home not through the government of Myanmar or through international institutions, but via an unlikely actor: the Arakan Army.
Long viewed with suspicion by the Rohingya themselves and largely ignored by the international community, the Arakan Army has, over the past two years, emerged as the dominant power in Rakhine State. With the Myanmar military regime in rapid retreat and the national unity government struggling to assert territorial control, the Arakan Army now governs 11 of Rakhine’s 18 townships. For all intents and purposes, it is the authority that now decides who may live — and return — to western Myanmar.
This new reality should not be underestimated. For years, the global response to the Rohingya crisis has hinged on repatriation through negotiations with Myanmar’s military or by placing pressure on the Association of Southeast Nations and the UN. Those efforts have categorically failed. Two rounds of repatriation since 2017 — one under the UN and another led by China — resulted in zero returns.
The refugees in Bangladesh are disillusioned, aid is running dry and extremism is beginning to fester in the camps. As Prime Minister Mohammed Yunus of Bangladesh warned last week at Chatham House, without urgent action “an explosion is imminent.”
It is precisely this urgency that demands a recalibrated approach. The Arakan Army is not an ideal partner. It has, at times, rejected the term “Rohingya” and its historical relationship with Muslim communities in Rakhine has been tense. But power transforms actors and the Arakan Army’s recent statements — including those by its Commander-in-Chief Twan Mrat Naing — show a remarkable evolution in tone.
Power transforms actors and the Arakan Army’s recent statements show a remarkable evolution in tone
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
The group has indicated it is open to the idea of peaceful coexistence, rule of law and even a phased return of refugees — provided certain conditions are met. In other words, it has moved from being a militant liberation movement to a proto-state willing to talk about governance. This shift opens a narrow but real window for engagement — and the Muslim world must not let it close.
Arab and Islamic nations, particularly those in the Gulf and within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, have long expressed solidarity with the Rohingya. But solidarity without strategy is not enough. Now is the time to develop a policy grounded in the new facts on the ground. That means initiating quiet backchannel dialogues with the Arakan Army leadership, exploring what kinds of political, financial or development incentives could nudge them further toward embracing repatriation.
Bangladesh cannot do this alone. Dhaka faces tremendous domestic pressure over hosting nearly a million refugees. Its interim prime minister, Yunus, is one of the few regional leaders willing to speak candidly about the crisis and the risk of radicalization if the camps remain neglected. But without regional and Muslim-majority support, Bangladesh lacks the leverage or resources to independently broker a deal with the Arakan Army.
Instead of pursuing unrealistic negotiations with the Myanmar junta or waiting for an elusive political settlement from the national unity government, the OIC should work with the Bangladeshi government and trusted international mediators to build a pragmatic roadmap for phased repatriation.
Such a plan might include security guarantees from the Arakan Army for returning families; pilot return programs to test integration, with third-party observers; development support for local Rakhine and Muslim communities alike, reducing the risk of economic grievance or communal tension; and legal pathways for the Rohingya to eventually gain recognition and rights under local law.
Many Rohingya remain skeptical of the group’s intentions. The memory of past abuses and betrayals is still raw
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
To be sure, this will require trust-building on all sides. Many Rohingya remain skeptical of the Arakan Army’s intentions. The memory of past abuses and betrayals is still raw. But when faced with a choice between permanent exile in squalid refugee camps and a monitored, supported return under new political realities, many may opt to go home — if they believe it is safe.
Here, the Muslim world can play a critical role. Countries like , the UAE, Turkiye and Qatar — all of which have championed Muslim causes globally — can lend both political weight and practical resources to this effort. Their involvement can also reassure the Rohingya that they are not alone and that their fate is not being decided by a new group of armed men, but by a process anchored in international norms and Islamic principles of justice.
This will not be an easy path. The Arakan Army still has much to prove. Its rhetoric must be backed by real commitments, including the cessation of discriminatory practices and the inclusion of Rohingya voices in political planning. The national unity government, too, must be encouraged to work constructively with the Arakan Army on this front, rather than cling to abstract ideals divorced from operational control.
Ultimately, the Rohingya crisis is a tragedy not just for Myanmar but for the Muslim world. It has exposed our collective inability to protect the vulnerable, to assert moral leadership and to respond with coherence and unity. But if we are willing to think beyond conventional diplomacy and engage with the de facto powers in Rakhine, we may yet chart a way forward.
The Arakan Army may not be the ally we expected. But it might be the ally we need — if we are bold enough to engage.
- Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim