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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan will unveil its annual federal budget for the coming fiscal year later on Tuesday, seeking to kickstart growth while finding resources for an expected hike in defense expenditure following the conflict with India last month.

Islamabad will also have to contend with remaining within the discipline of its International Monetary Fund program and the uncertainty from new trade tariffs being imposed by the United States, its biggest export market.

Media reports say the government is likely to present a 17.6 trillion rupee ($62.45 billion) budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1, down 6.7 percent from this fiscal year. It has projected a fiscal deficit of 4.8 percent of GDP, against a targeted 5.9 percent deficit in 2024-25, the reports say.

Analysts said they expect an increase of around 20 percent in the defense budget, likely offset by cuts in development spending.

Pakistan allocated 2.1 trillion Pakistani rupees ($7.45 billion) for defense in the outgoing fiscal year, including $2 billion for equipment and other assets. An additional 563 billion rupees ($1.99 billion) was set aside for military pensions, which are not counted within the official defense budget.

India’s defense spending in its 2025–26 (April-March) fiscal year was set at $78.7 billion, a 9.5 percent increase from the previous year, including pensions and $21 billion earmarked for equipment. It has indicated it will step up expenditure following the May conflict with Pakistan.

The government of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has projected 4.2 percent economic growth in 2025-26, saying it has steadied the economy, which had looked at risk of defaulting on its debts as recently as 2023. Growth this fiscal year is likely to be 2.7 percent, against an initial target of 3.6 percent set in the budget last year.
Pakistan’s growth lags far behind the region. In 2024, South Asian countries grew by an average of 5.8 percent and 6.0 percent growth is expected in 2025, according to the Asian Development Bank.

RATE CUTS NOT ENOUGH

Expansion of the economy should be aided by a sharp drop in the cost of borrowing, the government says, after a succession of interest rate cuts by the central bank. But economists warn that monetary policy alone may not be enough, with fiscal constraints and IMF-mandated reforms still weighing on investment.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Monday that he wanted to avoid Pakistan’s boom and bust cycles of the past.

“The macroeconomic stability that we have achieved, we want to absolutely stay the course,” he said. “This time around we are very, very clear that we do not want to squander the opportunity.”

The budget is expected to prioritize expanding the tax base, enforcing agriculture income tax laws, and reducing government subsidies to industry, to meet the terms of a $7 billion IMF bailout signed last summer. Just 1.3 percent of the population paid income tax in 2024, according to the tax authorities, with agriculture and the retail sector largely outside of the tax net.

The IMF has urged Pakistan to widen the tax base through reforms which include taxing agriculture, retail, and real estate.

Ahmad Mobeen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that he expected the revenue target for 2025-26 will be missed.

“The shortfall will mostly be owing to lack of optimal implementation of announced measures as well as absence of meaningful structural reforms to widen the tax net in general,” said Mobeen.

 ($1 = 281.8400 Pakistani rupees)
 

LAHORE: When one of Pakistan’s most renowned art directors Hashim Ali landed in the Qatari capital of Doha earlier this year, he wasn’t quite prepared for how much the city and its creative scene had transformed since he last visited around seven years ago.

Ali, who directed a Pakistani fashion and Sufi music show at Qatar’s Museum of Islamic Art in January, was mesmerized by the cultural transformation in the Gulf nation, balancing its traditional heritage with modernization and global influences. 

In recent years, Qatar has established numerous museums, art galleries, and heritage centers, including the Museum of Islamic Art, Mathaf: Arab Museum of Modern Art, and the National Museum of Qatar. The country has also emerged as a major player in the global art world, with significant investments in the arts and culture sector. 

Looking at the transformation, Ali said the time was ripe for Pakistani designers and artists to expand their reach to the Gulf, where cultural overlaps and a hunger for diverse aesthetics are reshaping creative industries.

“Everybody who asks me that we want to expand our business, I say expand to the Middle East because the way that region is growing, it’s not just the buildings, it’s the mindset and the heart,” Ali, who provides production design, art direction and styling services to various industries in Pakistan, told Arab News.

The 34-year-old art director, who graduated in Visual Communication Design from Lahore’s National College of Arts (NCA), said his experience in Doha was quite “empowering” as he was able to present his hometown of Lahore to the world.

“You had this showcase of Pakistan, and the entire space was turned into a Chahar Bagh [Persian quadrilateral garden] for the night with oil lamps and flowers, all the napkins were hand-done from Lahore, we got block printers involved who did the Mughal motifs on them,” Ali said. 

“The entire experience was so almost empowering that you are bringing parts of Lahore to the world and you’re showing the world that we just not only do Sufi music, we do great fashion of different kinds.”

Ali, known for creating intricate and stunning sets, said Middle Eastern creatives responded to Pakistani culture because of the cultural and religious similarities between the two regions.

“So, the collaboration, it’s set in stone that it’s going to happen,” he added.