With Malaysia assuming the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2025, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is poised to steer the regional bloc toward a more assertive stance on Myanmar鈥檚 ongoing crisis. Unlike previous chairs, Malaysia aims to prioritize accountability for the Myanmar junta鈥檚 atrocities and reject the legitimacy of its planned elections, widely criticized as a sham.

This approach, while ambitious, faces significant challenges given ASEAN鈥檚 history of ineffectiveness on Myanmar. The implications for the Rohingya and other minorities are profound and Anwar鈥檚 personal interest in the issue adds a unique dimension to Malaysia鈥檚 leadership. However, the likelihood of this approach being successful remains uncertain, constrained as it is by ASEAN鈥檚 structural limitations and regional dynamics.

Malaysia鈥檚 chairmanship, themed 鈥淚nclusivity and Sustainability,鈥� comes at a critical juncture. Myanmar鈥檚 junta, led by Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, has plunged the country into chaos since the 2021 coup, displacing more than 3.3 million people and killing thousands, with ethnic and religious minorities bearing the brunt of the violence.

ASEAN鈥檚 response, primarily through the Five-Point Consensus adopted in April 2021, has been widely criticized as toothless, failing to curb the junta鈥檚 aggression or advance inclusive dialogue. Malaysia, under Anwar鈥檚 leadership, seeks to break this cycle by rejecting engagement with the junta, advocating for accountability and dismissing the junta鈥檚 election plans as a ploy to entrench power.

Anwar鈥檚 strategy includes several key elements. First, Malaysia has appointed a special envoy, Tan Sri Othman Hashim, to facilitate dialogue with all stakeholders, including the national unity government and ethnic groups, signaling a shift toward recognizing Myanmar鈥檚 legitimate democratic forces.

Second, Malaysia is pushing for increased humanitarian aid to affected communities, particularly the Rohingya, and stronger coordination with international bodies like the International Criminal Court to address human rights abuses.

Finally, Anwar has called for ASEAN to cease all economic and diplomatic ties with the junta, such as barring its representatives from ASEAN meetings and cutting off resources like aviation fuel that enable military operations.

While Malaysia鈥檚 approach is principled, its success is far from assured. ASEAN鈥檚 consensus-based decision-making model, which requires unanimity among its 10 member states, has historically paralyzed decisive action on Myanmar. Countries like Cambodia, Laos and Thailand, which maintain closer ties with the junta or prioritize economic relations with China, Myanmar鈥檚 key ally, are likely to resist Malaysia鈥檚 push for a hard-line stance. Previous chairs, such as Indonesia in 2023, attempted similar reforms but failed to overcome these divisions, resulting in the Five-Point Consensus鈥� stagnation.

Anwar鈥檚 vocal advocacy for the Rohingya stems from a combination of personal conviction and strategic positioning.

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Anwar鈥檚 diplomatic efforts, including his controversial meetings with both the national unity government and Min Aung Hlaing in April, reflect a pragmatic attempt to engage all parties. However, the junta鈥檚 track record of broken promises 鈥� such as its ceasefire of the same month, which was violated almost immediately 鈥� undermines the feasibility of negotiated progress. Moreover, Malaysia鈥檚 ability to rally ASEAN members is complicated by its own foreign policy shifts, including closer ties with China and Russia, which may alienate Western partners that could support accountability measures.

The junta鈥檚 planned elections, scheduled for either December 2025 or January 2026, further complicate Malaysia鈥檚 strategy. Widely viewed as a sham to legitimize military rule, these elections exclude key stakeholders like the national unity government and ethnic minorities. Malaysia鈥檚 call for inclusive polls is laudable but lacks enforcement mechanisms, as ASEAN鈥檚 noninterference principle limits its ability to pressure the junta. Without unified regional support or external leverage from powers like the US or the EU, Malaysia鈥檚 efforts risk being symbolic rather than transformative.

The Rohingya, a Muslim minority subjected to genocide in 2017, stand to gain significantly from a successful Malaysian-led ASEAN strategy. Malaysia hosts approximately 120,000 Rohingya refugees, a humanitarian burden that underscores the urgency of addressing Myanmar鈥檚 crisis. Anwar鈥檚 push for enhanced humanitarian aid and safe repatriation, in coordination with Bangladesh, which hosts nearly a million Rohingya, could alleviate immediate suffering. Furthermore, Malaysia鈥檚 advocacy for International Criminal Court involvement may bring justice for atrocities, offering a semblance of accountability for the Rohingya and other persecuted groups like the Karen and Shan.

However, failure to achieve meaningful progress could exacerbate the plight of these minorities. Continued violence and displacement in Myanmar, coupled with ASEAN鈥檚 inability to act, may deepen regional instability, with Malaysia and neighboring countries facing increased refugee inflows and social tensions. The junta鈥檚 elections, if held without reform, could further marginalize ethnic minorities, entrenching their exclusion from Myanmar鈥檚 political process and perpetuating cycles of violence.

Anwar鈥檚 vocal advocacy for the Rohingya stems from a combination of personal conviction and strategic positioning. As a long-time human rights advocate and a Muslim leader, Anwar has consistently championed the cause of Muslim minorities globally, including the Palestinians and the Rohingya. His condemnation of the 2017 Rohingya genocide and calls for international action reflect a moral commitment to addressing their suffering. This stance resonates with Malaysia鈥檚 domestic audience, where the Rohingya issue is a significant social and political concern, given the country鈥檚 large refugee population.

Strategically, Anwar鈥檚 focus on the Rohingya enhances Malaysia鈥檚 regional and global standing. By positioning Malaysia as a moral leader within ASEAN, Anwar seeks to restore the bloc鈥檚 credibility and assert Malaysia鈥檚 influence as a middle power. His engagement with both democratic and authoritarian actors in Myanmar reflects a pragmatic approach to diplomacy, balancing idealism with the realities of ASEAN鈥檚 fractured dynamics.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim