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Baghdad is relieved because it managed to avoid falling into several traps. Iraqi factions entertained the idea of expanding the conflict in the wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation in Gaza and opening of the “support front” in Lebanon. However, internal advice and external warnings steered Iraq clear of sliding into the turmoil. The Israeli threats against some of the factions were blunt and the US needed to step in to prevent it from acting on them.

Baghdad succeeded in avoiding another trap. It never occurred to some Iraqi factions that Bashar Assad’s regime would suddenly disappear and that the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut road would become impassable, rendering it a figment of the past. The factions were also surprised with Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s appearance in the palace where Assad once sat.

The factions briefly considered the possibility of stirring things up before they realized that the issue was much greater and more dangerous and that Iran needed to catch its breath. And so, Iraq began to realize that the situation around it was changing.

Washington is a lot more pragmatic than before and Ghaani’s Tehran is less demanding than Soleimani’s Tehran

Ghassan Charbel

Baghdad is currently very carefully balancing its relations with Tehran and Washington. The US is the US. We need it for so many things. Iran is a neighbor with which we share relations, interests and connections. The truth is that Washington is a lot more pragmatic than before and that Esmail Ghaani’s Tehran is less demanding than Qassem Soleimani’s Tehran. The Iraqi room for maneuver is greater than before. What matters now is avoiding a military confrontation, which will be tantamount to a big trap for Iraq and the region.

The discussions in Iraq these days are realistic and imposed by the lessons of the turbulent past. A number of truths have emerged in these discussions:

The first is that the top player in this part of the world has been and continues to be the US. We like to praise the roles of Russia, China and Europe, but they are mostly based on wishful thinking, rather than facts on the ground. The Russian forces, which became involved in the region to save the Assad regime, did not intervene to defend him and have not even vowed to support him. Russia, which shares strategic relations with Iran, could not prevent Israeli jets from destroying Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps positions in Syria and forcing the Iranian influence out of the country.

The American presence became more pronounced with Donald Trump’s reelection as president, given his way of approaching affairs and due to the major change in the region that was represented by the Assad regime’s ouster.

The second truth is the major blow dealt to the Iranian player in the region. In the not-too-distant past, the prevailing belief was that Iran was the No. 1 player on the ground and that no one could stand in its way. The player managed to achieve a number of breakthroughs and solid gains and was eyeing the consolidation of its roots in even more countries.

It was difficult to imagine a Syria that operated outside the Iranian orbit and to imagine Tehran being forced to deal with Beirut International Airport according to international regulations, not as one of the four capitals in its orbit. The injury of the Iranian player is significant. It took massive efforts and heavy costs to build the so-called Axis of Resistance, which collapsed with the toppling of the Syrian regime.

Israel, whose role we have been trying to avoid acknowledging for decades, has imposed itself as a dangerous player

Ghassan Charbel

The third truth is that Iran also lost in Lebanon what was viewed as the front line from which it expanded its regional influence. The latest war ended with Hezbollah’s defeat. The party had chosen to open its “support front” a day after the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation took place on Oct. 7, 2023. Hezbollah lost its historic leader Hassan Nasrallah and a number of other senior commanders. Some even say that it lost its ability to wage another war against Israel, now that it no longer has a foothold in Syria.

The fourth truth is that Israel, whose role we have been trying to avoid acknowledging for decades, has imposed itself as a dangerous regional player. Israel, which is armed with American technology, is a major force that can infiltrate the territories of its direct neighbors and deal blows to even more distant regions. It is a hostile nation and occupying country, but it is a reality that we can no longer ignore.

The fifth truth is that the change in Syria has deeper connotations than some people imagine. It is evident that Al-Sharaa’s Syria has set a precedent — the first in decades — by choosing to exit the military aspect of the conflict with Israel. The latest Turkish-Israeli understandings about Syria firmly shut the Syrian arena in the face of Iran and Hezbollah.

The sixth truth is the elevation of ��������’s role to one that takes initiatives on the regional and international levels. These stem from its belief in investing in stability through respecting international law and the sovereignty of nations and avoiding stirring unrest in neighboring countries or others around the world.

It is safe to say that the majority of players who became embroiled in the post-Al-Aqsa Flood wars were dealt several wounds and disappointments. There can be no denying that Israel succeeded, through its destructive might, in altering the scene, especially through Syria. However, it cannot escape the two-state solution, which is gaining more traction on the international arena.

Hamas, which lit the Al-Aqsa spark, will end up beyond disappointed. It will lose its armed presence in Gaza and it is not welcome in Beirut, Damascus or Amman. This means it will be confronted with the threat of forced “retirement,” unless it decides to get in line.

Baghdad is observing the developments around it. The American-Iranian nuclear negotiations are vital to it. The consolidation of Al-Sharaa’s rule in Syria is something it cannot ignore. Damascus can play a greater role and make greater gains if it continues its honeymoon with Washington.

Baghdad is observing how the features of the region are being changed by war, the injuries of players and defeats in battles. It must wait a short while to realize the extent of the change that has taken place to regional roles, which will inevitably have an impact on Iraq itself.

• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.