黑料社区

What the end of US sanctions means for Syria and the region

What the end of US sanctions means for Syria and the region

What the end of US sanctions means for Syria and the region
By lifting sanctions on Syria, the Trump administration has shown it is ready to say no to Israel. (Saudi Royal Palace photo)
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During his visit to 黑料社区 on Tuesday, Donald Trump, the iconoclast US president, announced the lifting of American sanctions on Syria. Having been urged to do so by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Trump made this phenomenal decision for Syria.

He said: 鈥淭here is a new government that will hopefully succeed in stabilizing the country and keeping peace. That鈥檚 what we want to see in Syria.鈥 With these simple and straightforward words, the American president summarized what experts have been saying since the fall of Bashar Assad last December. The sanctions were for the Assad regime and, now that he is gone, they are irrelevant. Sanctions have crippled the Syrian economy, leading to instability for the country and its neighborhood. If the US sanctions had remained, Syria would have no choice but to ask for help from America鈥檚 rivals, namely Iran, Russia and China.

The lifting of the sanctions is a big win for Saudi diplomacy. The Kingdom has again proved it is the center of gravity in the region. The fact that the crown prince used his political capital with the American president to press for sanctions relief for Syria shows how important the country is for 黑料社区 and for regional stability. It also shows that Saudi support and guidance is necessary for Syria鈥檚 revival.

More importantly, what does the lifting of US sanctions mean for Syria? First of all, it means that countries that want to help Syria can now do so without being subjected to sanctions themselves. With the sanctions removed, reconstruction of the devastated country can begin.

President Ahmad Al-Sharaa, who met with Trump in Riyadh, invited American companies to invest in Syrian oil and gas. Syria鈥檚 postwar reconstruction will lead to an economic boom, which will encourage refugees to come back. It will also encourage the country鈥檚 different factions to coalesce toward building a better future for their children. With reconstruction, jobs will be created, which is the best deterrent against terrorist organizations, preventing them from recruiting destitute youths. Lifting the sanctions is the starting point to making Syria a stable and prosperous country.

Countries that want to help Syria can now do so without being subjected to sanctions themselves

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

This is what Trump wants. He said so in his speech at the US-Saudi Investment Forum. He said he does not want to export a Western model to the region. He thinks, rightly, that the people of the region know better how to govern themselves and to build their own nations. He wants a prosperous and stable Middle East, in which American companies can do business and make money. Trump criticized the neoconservatives who waged war in the region, costing the US money and blood while bringing nothing to the region but destruction and violence.

However, this does not resonate well with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Bibi has another vision for the region and for Syria. He wants Syria divided and weak. A violent and unstable Syria suits him well because it allows him to interfere whenever he wants. It also allows him to use the different factions鈥 insecurities to pit them against each other and the central state. An unstable Syria allows Netanyahu to gain more influence and more land. By acquiring more land, he satisfies his base of right-wing fanatics and makes sure he stays in power, meaning he does not go to jail.

The lifting of US sanctions on Syria is also very good news for Lebanon. The country is struggling under the weight of the Syrian refugees that have overwhelmed its decaying infrastructure and services network. Even after Assad鈥檚 fall, refugees have not been going back because of the dire economic situation. With the lifting of sanctions and the start of reconstruction, Syrians will be more likely to return. This will also improve Syrian-Lebanese relations, as the return of refugees was a point of contention between the two countries. And an economic boom in Syria would definitely have a positive spillover effect on Lebanon.

By lifting sanctions on Syria, the Trump administration has shown it is ready to say no to Israel

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

However, lifting sanctions is only the beginning. Syria is still facing Israeli aggression on a daily basis. There can be no real reconstruction or stability as long as Israel occupies parts of Syria, continuously shells Syrian territory and engages with factions and minorities to create disturbances.

By lifting sanctions on Syria, the Trump administration has shown it is ready to say no to Israel. It means that the White House is prioritizing stability over catering to the whims of the right-wing Israeli government. It is a great step in favor of Syria. However, the US should follow it up with pressure on Israel to leave Syria alone and go back to the disengagement agreement of 1974.

The UAE has reportedly set up a backchannel for dialogue between the Syrian government and Israel. Damascus wants to return to the disengagement agreement, while Tel Aviv does not. According to a Syrian source of mine, Israel is saying that the party it established the agreement with 鈥 meaning the Assad regime 鈥 does not exist anymore, so it considers the agreement null and void. This is where American pressure is needed. Diplomacy works better when it is backed by strength. The fact that Trump listened to his Arab friends and lifted the sanctions indicates that he might also listen to them and pressure Israel to stop its aggression against Syria.

The lifting of the sanctions has many meanings. In geopolitical terms, it means 黑料社区 is key to stabilizing the region. It is the main diplomatic and political actor in the Middle East. It also means that Israel, Netanyahu and his Likud gang are not as important to the Trump administration as everyone thought. And, most importantly, it means the Syrians now have a chance to build the stable, prosperous and democratic state of which they have always dreamed.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view