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President Donald Trump’s visit to marks a profoundly different moment in the relationship between the two historic allies — and for the region and the world. A new awaits him. Unlike his 2017 visit, Trump will find a nation transformed: politically mature, strategically assertive and globally influential.
The of 2025 is no longer the Kingdom Trump encountered eight years ago. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s leadership, it has become more confident and capable, with a recalibrated foreign policy that skillfully balances its national interests with those of allies and global partners. Domestically, the Kingdom has undergone sweeping changes — modernizing its society, diversifying its economy, and reducing its dependence on oil. Internationally, it plays a central leadership role from the Gulf to the Levant, and increasingly across the global stage.
Trump’s visit also comes at a time of transformation in the US. America’s foreign policy posture has shifted due to political polarization at home, strategic fatigue from past military engagements, and a growing emphasis on economic influence over military presence. Trump returns to the presidency with a sharper, more transactional worldview. His emphasis is now on securing investment, boosting US industry, and reducing costly overseas commitments.
The regional context has shifted just as profoundly. The Middle East Trump will step into is a region with a new and altered balance of power. Iran — the traditional adversary of and the Gulf — is in retreat. Its proxies are weakened or collapsing: Hezbollah is weakened in Lebanon, the Houthis face pressure and devastation in Yemen, and Iran has lost its key ally in Syria, Bashar Assad. The collapse of Assad’s regime has severed Tehran’s critical land corridor to Lebanon, marking a significant setback to Iranian influence and ambition in the region.
A key test of Trump’s visit will be whether the Gulf region will emerge confident of a coherent strategy for American engagement to deal with the destabilizing and dangerous conflicts in the region.
Dr. Amal Mudallali
What will most surprise the president is the transformation on the ground in . Under Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has spearheaded a bold agenda that turned the Kingdom into a hub of modernity and global engagement. It is now the venue of high-profile tech, financial, sports and cultural events. Riyadh is no longer just a regional capital. It is a global actor mediating complex international conflicts, from the Iran nuclear talks to the Russia-Ukraine war and sensitive hostage negotiations.
has also diversified not only its economy but its diplomatic relations. While maintaining its traditional security and defense partnership with the US, it has expanded ties with China, Russia, and other powers. This new is not just a partner; it is a global peacemaker and a power broker.
While the US remains the Gulf’s preferred security partner, the relationship is increasingly shaped by what experts see as an evolving economic competition. As senior fellow and analyst Hasan Alhasan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies has argued, US-Gulf ties have evolved from petrodollar partnerships to geo-economic rivalry. Speaking at a recent Arab Gulf States Institute panel, Alhasan pointed to Washington’s energy independence and the intensification of great power competition as key drivers of this shift.
Under President Trump, the Kingdom is expected to increase its investments in as the relationship gets closer and more strategic. But Trump’s request for to raise its investment pledge from $600 billion to $1 trillion, while simultaneously pressuring Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to lower oil prices, reveals a central contradiction in his approach. According to these same experts, the Gulf states are being asked to do more for less — a formula that breeds friction.
Another sensitive topic Trump is expected to raise is the Gulf’s growing ties with China. But here, too, the landscape has changed. For and its neighbors, diversification is no longer just a policy; it is a core part of their strategic identity. As Alhasan explained, the Gulf states see themselves as bridge-builders in the global economy and are committed to maintaining flexible partnerships. Total alignment with the US is no longer expected or pursued.
Emile Hokayem, director of regional security at IISS, has described this shift as a “structural divergence” that will likely deepen in the coming years if the US does not address the issues that the Gulf consider critical for them and for the stability of the region. Speaking in a Washington Institute panel discussion, “disagreements between the US and Gulf states are expected to arise over energy, trade, technology and AI. Without a structured dialogue on regional priorities, these differences could grow into long-term disappointments.”
Trump’s visit comes at a time when America’s allies are carefully watching its words and actions. The difference — and, at times, the contradiction — between what the administration says and does is confusing and unsettling. A recent comment by Vice President J.D. Vance — saying the US would not intervene in a hypothetical India-Pakistan war because it was “none of our business” — sent a sobering message to the Gulf countries about Washington’s willingness to defend its partners.
This echoed the muted response to Iran’s 2019 attack on Saudi oil infrastructure — an event that deeply influenced the Gulf’s view of America as an “unpredictable” partner. But while the vice president made his statement, we know now that the administration was engaged — and President Trump announced a ceasefire between the two fighting nuclear powers mediated by the US.
This reinforces a perception around the world that if you do not hear from the president himself, it is not the real US policy. The trip is important because the Gulf will hear from the president himself his vision for a future US-Gulf partnership based on trust and predictability.
Trump’s visit will undoubtedly include economic announcements, investment pledges, technology and AI announcements, and defense deals. But a key test will be whether the region comes out confident of a coherent US strategy for American engagement to deal with the destabilizing and dangerous conflicts in the region — from Yemen to Gaza, from Syria to Iran.
This will go a long way to assure the Gulf states that Washington is serious about addressing the root causes of conflict and instability in the region to give the Gulf countries the space and opportunity to continue pursuing their transformative vision for their countries.
The success of Trump’s agenda will depend not only on what he asks of Gulf states, but on what he offers: a framework that transforms the US role from regional guarantor to strategic partner. The Gulf states, for their part, have become co-architects of regional order. They are hedging their bets and balancing ties with Washington, Moscow and Beijing.
The visit will be a success in form — while in substance, it will mark the institutionalization of a new kind of US-Gulf relationship. One in which and its neighbors are no longer junior partners, but assertive actors in a competitive, multipolar region where power is shared, negotiated and no longer assumed.
- Dr. Amal Mudallali is an international affairs adviser for Think and a former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.