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WARSAW: Warsaw’s central business district is booming alongside Poland’s economy, but those teaching yoga and taking coffee orders in bustling premises under glass and steel office towers are often Ukrainian.
Economists and entrepreneurs agree: Refugees from the Russian invasion of Ukraine have proven a huge boost to Poland’s economy — but now their contribution may be at risk.
A law governing Ukrainians’ protected status expires at the end of the month and President Karol Nawrocki has yet to sign off on a bill to renew it, threatening a million people with legal limbo.
At the ElFlex yoga and fitness center, the young women stretching and balancing in complicated poses under the colored lights maintain their poise, but concern is rippling through the community.
Gym owner Lisa Kolesnikova, 28, grew up in the Ukrainian city Zaporizhzhia, but she built her business in Poland.
She now owns two yoga studios and has franchised two more. Two years ago most of the customers and all of her staff were from Ukraine or Belarus. Now, that’s changing.
“Polish clients come to us, and the girls now conduct training in Polish. They like us and, in fact, I have never encountered any negativity,” she told AFP.

- Economic success story -

For Kolesnikova, who employs eight people, the idea that Poland might call into question the residency rights of hundreds of thousands of hard-working Ukrainians is absurd — but not for nationalist politicians like Nawrocki.
In March 2022, in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Poland’s parliament passed a law granting protected status to Ukrainians. It has since been amended and extended.
Last month the newly-elected nationalist president refused to approve the latest version, demanding it be changed to prevent Ukrainians from receiving Poland’s 800-zloty (190-euro) per child monthly benefit.
A new draft is ready, but Nawrocki is still keeping the Ukrainians and their employers guessing. If he doesn’t sign off by September 30, Ukrainians will see their legal residency expire.
On Thursday the president said he was still studying the amended bill. “If it hasn’t been changed, I’ll reject it again,” he said, in an interview with the new site Fakt.
At the parliament in Warsaw, lawmaker Michal Wawer of the right-wing Confederation party, which sits in the opposition in parliament, told AFP his movement hopes the president will indeed stop the bill.
“I don’t think it would be a social catastrophe,” he said. “Each of these Ukrainian citizens will be entitled to apply for legal residence as an immigrant or as a refugee.
“They will be just treated in the way that every other foreigner in Poland is treated.”
Entrepreneur Oleg Yarovi, a 37-year-old Ukrainian who owns a chain of coffee shops, does not agree.
“As someone who understands how much the Ukrainian community spends investing in the Polish market, these are very illogical steps being taken. It is simply something political, populist,” he said.
“The Ukrainians who came here invested millions in Poland. We are currently selling one of our premises and every day if I take seven calls from people who are interested, six are Ukrainians.”

- ‘Real concern’ -

In June, consultants Deloitte estimated in a report to the UN refugee agency that the work of Ukrainian refugees now accounts for 2.7 percent of Poland’s GDP.
Ukrainians are more likely to be employed than Poles, and native workers are moving into higher-paid roles.
Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, Poland’s Ukrainian population has topped one million. Yet Poland’s total population is shrinking and unemployment in July was just 3.1 percent, the fourth lowest in the European Union.
“They integrated into the labor market in Poland very quickly. They managed, found work,” said Nadia Winiarska, an employment expert from the Lewiatan Confederation business association.
“It is not true that Ukrainian citizens in Poland primarily rely on welfare,” she told AFP, complaining that the political debate in Poland does not take into account the scale of Ukrainians’ input.
But anti-refugee politicians say they are speaking up for ordinary Polish opinion.
“I don’t agree that they are well integrated,” Wawer told AFP. “There is a problem of building entire companies, an entire society that does not require its citizens to use Polish language or to accept Polish cultural norms.”
Some business leaders accuse Russia’s online propaganda networks of boosting anti-refugee sentiment.
“I hope the Polish people won’t buy it,” said Andrzej Korkus, CEO of the EWL Group, a major employment agency. Referring to the law, he said “we’re coming to the end of September and still it’s not signed. There’s real concern.”

COPENHAGEN: A suspected drone sighting briefly shuttered a Danish airport on Friday for the second time in a few hours, after the country’s prime minister said the flights were part of “hybrid attacks” that may be linked to Russia.
Drones have been seen flying over several Danish airports since Wednesday, causing one of them to close for hours, after a sighting earlier this week prompted Copenhagen airport to shut down.
That followed a similar incident in Norway, drone incursions in Polish and Romanian territory and the violation of Estonian airspace by Russian fighter jets, which raised tensions in light of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
“Over recent days, Denmark has been the victim of hybrid attacks,” Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in a video message on social media on Thursday — referring to a form of unconventional warfare.
She warned that such drone flights “could multiply.”
Investigators said they had so far failed to identify those responsible, but Frederiksen stressed: “There is one main country that poses a threat to Europe’s security, and it is Russia.”
Moscow said Thursday it “firmly rejects” any suggestion that it was involved in the Danish incidents. Its embassy in Copenhagen called them “a staged provocation,” in a post on social media.
Denmark’s Justice Minister Peter Hummelgaard earlier said the aim of the attack was “to spread fear, create division and frighten us.”
He added that Copenhagen would acquire new enhanced capabilities to “detect” and “neutralize drones.”
Denmark will on Friday join other EU countries, mostly along the eastern border with Russia, in the first talks on proposals to build a “wall” of anti-drone defenses in the face of the tensions with Moscow.
Russia sabotage warning
Drones were spotted on Wednesday and early Thursday at airports in Aalborg, Esbjerg, Sonderborg and at the Skrydstrup air base before leaving on their own, police said.
Aalborg airport, located in northern Denmark, was initially shut down for several hours, and closed again for about an hour from late Thursday into early Friday morning due to another suspected sighting.
“It was not possible to take down the drones, which flew over a very large area over a couple of hours,” North Jutland chief police inspector Jesper Bojgaard Madsen said about the initial Aalborg incident.
The head of Denmark’s military intelligence, Thomas Ahrenkiel, told a news conference the service had not been able to identify who was behind the drones.
But intelligence chief Finn Borch said: “The risk of Russian sabotage in Denmark is high.”
Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told a news conference the flights appeared to be “the work of a professional actor... such a systematic operation in so many locations at virtually the same time.”
He said it had posed “no direct military threat” to Denmark.
Frederiksen said Thursday that she had spoken with NATO chief Mark Rutte about the incidents.
Lund Poulsen said the government had yet to decide whether to invoke NATO’s Article 4, under which any member state can call urgent talks when it feels its “territorial integrity, political independence or security” are at risk.
French President Emmanuel Macron said his country stood ready “to contribute to the security of Danish airspace.”
Copenhagen is set to host a summit of European Union leaders next week.
’Feel rather insecure’
Police said investigations were under way with the Danish intelligence service and the armed forces.
The drone activity shook some in Denmark, including 85-year-old Birgit Larsen.
“I feel rather insecure. I live in a country where there has been peace since 1945. I am not really used to thinking about war,” she told AFP in central Copenhagen.
Others were less concerned.
“It’s probably Russia, you know, testing the borders of Europe. They fly close to the borders and stuff and try to provoke, but not threaten,” said 48-year-old Torsten Froling.
The drone flights came after Denmark announced it would acquire long-range precision weapons for the first time, as Russia would pose a threat “for years to come.”