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RIYADH: Kuwait’s economy is on a steady recovery in 2025, driven by rising oil output and resilient non-oil growth after contracting 2.6 percent last year, the International Monetary Fund has said. 

Following its staff visit to the country, the IMF said higher oil production, after the recent unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, is expected to lift the oil sector by 2.4 percent, while non-oil growth is projected at 2.7 percent.

The forecast aligns closely with the World Bank’s April projection of 2.2 percent growth this year, with expansion accelerating to 2.7 percent in 2026 and 2027. 

IMF Mission Chief for Kuwait Francisco Parodi said: “The economy is recovering amid higher oil production and robust non-oil growth. An incipient recovery is underway, with real GDP expanding by 1 percent in the first quarter of 2025.” 

He added: “For 2025, real GDP is projected to expand by 2.6 percent.” 

In July, the National Bank of Kuwait reported that the economy returned to positive territory in the first quarter of 2025, recording a 1 percent year-on-year increase, following seven consecutive quarters of contraction. 

The bank noted that the non-oil economy continued to expand, supported by momentum in manufacturing, real estate, and transportation, while the impact of previous oil production cuts has begun to fade. 

Kuwait also increased its oil production in April by 135,000 barrels per day, which is expected to bolster overall economic activity. 

The IMF report added that inflation continues to moderate, though lower oil prices are weighing on fiscal and external balances. Headline consumer price index inflation is projected to ease to 2.2 percent in 2025, down from 2.9 percent in 2024. 

“The fiscal deficit of the budgetary central government is projected to rise to 7.8 percent of GDP in FY2025/26, up from 2.2 percent of GDP in FY2024/25, primarily reflecting lower oil revenue,” said Parodi. 

He added: “In parallel, the current account surplus is projected to moderate to 26.5 percent of GDP in 2025, down from 29.1 percent of GDP in 2024, mainly due to lower oil exports.” 

Affirming the growth of the non-oil sector, the report noted that credit to the non-financial private sector is projected to rise to 6.1 percent in 2025, up from 5.2 percent in 2024. 

The IMF also said that Kuwaiti banks have maintained strong capital and liquidity buffers, while non-performing loans remain low. 

“The risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced. The economy is heavily exposed in the short run to upside and downside risks from shifts in oil prices and OPEC+ production quotas, which could arise from fluctuations in global growth, geopolitical tensions or non-OPEC+ supply,” said Parodi. 

He also lauded recent government initiatives, including the Public Debt Law enacted in March, which could further support the country’s economic recovery. 

The law, approved by Kuwait’s Ministry of Finance, aims to address fiscal pressures and finance infrastructure projects, marking the country’s return to international debt markets after an eight-year hiatus. 

At the time, the ministry said the law allows the government to issue up to 30 billion Kuwaiti dinars ($98 billion) in debt instruments, in either local or major foreign currencies, with maturities of up to 50 years. 

“A new Public Debt Law was enacted in March 2025, enabling the government to issue debt for the first time in almost a decade. Accelerating reform implementation is needed to promote economic diversification, enhance competitiveness, and boost non-oil growth,” said Parodi.

RIYADH: ��������’s non-oil exports, including re-exports, reached SR33.71 billion ($8.99 billion) in July, marking a 30.4 percent increase compared to the same month last year, official data showed. 

According to preliminary figures released by the General Authority for Statistics, the UAE was the top destination for Saudi non-oil products, with shipments totaling SR10 billion. 

India ranked second, receiving goods worth SR3.48 billion, followed by China at SR1.99 billion, Turkiye at SR1.95 billion, the UK at SR1.25 billion, and Egypt at SR992.4 million. 

The robust growth highlights progress under ��������’s Vision 2030 program, which seeks to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues. 

“Non-oil exports, including re-exports, recorded an increase of 30.4 percent compared to July 2024, while national non-oil exports, excluding re-exports, grew by 0.6 percent. Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 111.3 percent during the same period,” said GASTAT. 

Other key destinations in July included Belgium at SR929.1 million, Qatar at SR778.6 million, and Switzerland at SR776.1 million. Exports to Kuwait stood at SR711.6 million, while Jordan and Bahrain received SR678.2 million and SR656 million, respectively. 

Machinery, electrical equipment, and parts led the export basket, accounting for 29.7 percent of non-oil shipments and registering a sharp 191.1 percent year-on-year increase.

Chemical products followed with a 19.6 percent share, edging up 0.9 percent from July 2024. 

In May, GASTAT noted that ��������’s gross domestic product grew 2.7 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by robust non-oil activity. 

Economy and Planning Minister Faisal Al-Ibrahim, who also chairs GASTAT’s board, said non-oil activities contributed 53.2 percent to GDP — a 5.7 percent rise over previous estimates. 

He added that the Kingdom’s economic outlook remains strong, supported by structural reforms and large-scale state-led projects. 

Further reflecting this momentum, S&P Global reported that ��������’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 56.4 in August from 56.3 in July, staying well above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. The Kingdom outpaced regional peers, with the UAE and Kuwait posting PMIs of 53.3 and 53, respectively. 
 
Export gateways 

According to GASTAT, ports played a key role in the July surge.

Jeddah Islamic Sea Port handled the largest volume of non-oil exports at SR3.63 billion, followed by King Fahad Industrial Sea Port at SR3.37 billion and King Abdulaziz Sea Port in Dammam at SR2.44 billion.

Jubail and Ras Al Khair sea ports processed SR2.10 billion and SR1.97 billion, respectively. 

On land, Al-Batha Port processed SR2.18 billion in non-oil exports, while Al-Hadithah and Al-Wadiah ports recorded SR915.4 million and SR553.8 million, respectively. 

Among airports, King Abdulaziz International Airport processed non-oil outbound goods valued at SR6.63 billion, followed by King Khalid International Airport at SR4.78 billion, and King Fahad International Airport at SR404.4 million. 

Overall merchandise exports 

��������’s overall merchandise exports stood at SR102.38 billion in July, representing a rise of 7.8 percent compared to the same month in 2024. 

Oil exports decreased by 0.7 percent year on year in July. “Consequently, the percentage of oil exports out of total exports decreased from 72.8 percent in July 2024 to 67.1 percent in July 2025,” said the report. 

Asia remained the largest market for Saudi exports in July, accounting for SR72.44 billion. 

Europe followed at SR16.54 billion, with Africa and the Americas receiving Saudi exports valued at SR7.50 billion and SR5.72 billion, respectively. 

China was the top destination for ��������’s merchandise exports in July, as the Asian nation received shipments valued at SR14.33 billion. 

The UAE received goods worth SR10.85 billion, followed by India at SR9.66 billion, South Korea at SR8.72 billion and Japan at SR7.14 billion. 

In July, exports to the US stood at SR4.22 billion, while Egypt and Malta received inbound shipments valued at SR3.68 billion and SR3.43 billion, respectively. 

Imports in July 

��������’s imports decreased by 2.5 percent year on year in July to reach SR75.52 billion, while the merchandise trade balance surplus rose by 53.4 percent over the same period. 

Machinery, mechanical and electrical equipment led imports, totaling SR22.59 billion in July, followed by transport parts at SR9.97 billion and base metals at SR7.11 billion. 

In July, the Kingdom imported chemical products valued at SR6.91 billion, while mineral goods accounted for SR4.04 billion. 

By region, Asia remained the Kingdom’s largest trade partner, contributing SR41.96 billion in imports. 

Imports from Europe and the Americas amounted to SR20.24 billion and SR9.13 billion, respectively. Africa supplied SR3.52 billion worth of goods, while imports from Oceania totaled SR648.5 million. 

China led all countries as the top source of imports, with SR19.47 billion worth of inbound shipments in July, followed by the US at SR6.04 billion, and the UAE at SR4.82 billion. 

In July, �������� received goods worth SR3.39 billion from Germany, while imports from India stood at SR3.37 billion. 

Sea routes were the dominant entry channel for imports, accounting for SR42.87 billion, while air and land routes handled inbound goods worth SR24.13 billion, and SR8.52 billion, respectively. 

King Abdulaziz Sea Port in Dammam was the leading sea entry point with SR19.67 billion in imports. 

Jeddah Islamic Sea Port handled inbound shipments valued at SR15.75 billion, followed by Ras Tanura Sea Port at SR1.50 billion and King Abdullah Sea Port at SR934.8 million. 

Among land entry points, Al-Batha Port processed SR3.59 billion worth of goods, while Riyadh Dry Port and King Fahad Bridge processed SR2.26 billion and SR800.1 million, respectively. 

By air, King Khalid International Airport received SR10.86 billion in imports in July. 

King Abdulaziz International Airport and King Fahad International Airport handled SR8.44 billion and SR4.31 billion, respectively.