JERUSALEM: Gaza鈥檚 fragile five-week truce faces a major hurdle with Israel鈥檚 refusal to release Palestinian prisoners, but analysts say the ceasefire is likely to hold as Washington pushes for its extension.
鈥淚t鈥檚 actually the most complicated crisis since the beginning of the ceasefire,鈥� Palestinian affairs expert Michael Milshtein of Tel Aviv University鈥檚 Moshe Dayan Center told AFP.
While previous obstacles have tested the truce 鈥� including Hamas鈥檚 threat to stop releasing hostages over alleged violations of the ceasefire including insufficient aid entering Gaza 鈥� Milshtein emphasized that 鈥渢his time, it is even more complicated.鈥�
On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspended the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, after militants freed six hostages.
He condemned what he described as 鈥渉umiliating ceremonies鈥� by Hamas to free hostages in Gaza.
Palestinian militants had in the weeks prior paraded Israeli captives and later displayed black coffins containing deceased hostages on stage, sparking outrage across Israel.
Netanyahu went further on Sunday, warning that Israel was ready to 鈥渞esume intense fighting at any moment鈥� in the Palestinian territory.

Hamas, in turn, warned that Israel鈥檚 decision jeopardizes the 鈥渆ntire agreement,鈥� stopping short of promising a return to fighting.
Yet, despite the escalating rhetoric, both sides appear intent on maintaining the ceasefire, according to Milshtein.
鈥淗amas really wants to implement phase one of the deal because on Saturday, the IDF (military) is meant to start leaving the Philadelphi Corridor,鈥� he noted, referring to a strategic strip that runs along Gaza鈥檚 border with Egypt.
For Israel, Mairav Zonszein, an analyst from the International Crisis Group, said that Netanyahu was also stuck 鈥渋n the same quagmire of trying to get hostages out while trying to get rid of the people holding those hostages.鈥�
鈥淚 think Netanyahu is kind of doing what he does best, which is dragging things out, buying time, trying to see if he can leverage withholding these prisoners,鈥� she said.
Zonszein noted that Israeli public opinion is putting pressure on Netanyahu to uphold the ceasefire, particularly as more hostages are seen 鈥渃oming out alive.鈥�
Some analysts suggest that Israel鈥檚 tougher stance is a calculated negotiating tactic ahead of upcoming talks for the second phase of truce.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think the ceasefire will collapse, it鈥檚 not in Netanyahu鈥檚 interest to have it collapse particularly as hostages are still being held in Gaza,鈥� said Sanam Vakil, director of UK-based think tank Chatham House鈥檚 Middle East and North Africa program.
鈥淲hat we are witnessing now is political hardball, with them (Israel) trying to up the ante, or increase pressure on Hamas鈥� ahead of the next phase, she said.

Phase two was 鈥渁lways going to be the hardest phase of the negotiations, made worse by the US position and posturing and by the fact there is no coherent Arab plan,鈥� she said.
Trump has stirred controversy by openly suggesting that the United States should take control of Gaza and expel its 2.4 million inhabitants to Egypt and Jordan.
But in recent days he has toned down his view and on Wednesday his special envoy Steve Witkoff is due to arrive in Israel to push forward the phase two talks.
鈥淚 think the key to this is the Americans, they will determine what takes place next,鈥� said Alan Mendoza, executive director of the UK-based Henry Jackson Society.
鈥淭rump was the main factor in getting Netanyahu to agree to ceasefire,鈥� he said, noting that the deal was on the table previously but 鈥淭rump pushed it and both the Israelis and Hamas have agreed to its terms.鈥�
Despite Israel demanding Gaza be completely demilitarised and Hamas removed, while the militant group insisting on remaining in the territory after the war, Mendoza said that if Trump throws his weight behind phase two 鈥渢hen it will happen.鈥�
鈥淚t鈥檚 a tough negotiation round and the odds are we will not be able to agree on a stage two plan but if the Arab states buck up... and take more of an interest given Trump鈥檚 Gaza Riveria plans 鈥� there鈥檚 a possibility we could do it.鈥�